JTH's Account Talk

Thanks Poolman, I'm just getting a little goofy with the charts (as usual.) I've noticed the CNBC monkeys are trained and focused on the SPX 1035 10% correction. I suppose it makes sense seeing how the Monthly 200 SMA is sitting at 1034.93

More importantly, they are going to watch how SPX reacts at 1035, it doesn't necessarily mean everyone is going to jump in at this level. I'm inclined to believe if we are going to go that low, then we may test the 1013's 38.2% retracement from Oct 07 - Mar 09.

This channel shows that if we don't get a bounce, we could slide into 1035 by Tuesday.
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My Axial-Drifter-Long system uses a 9/36/66 EMA crossover on 9 ticker symbols. I chose these specific numbers to mitigate the risk of whipsaws and reduce the possibility of running out of IFTs. This approach also fits my risk profile, I'm 36 and want to stay invested as much as possible, yet want to avoid altogether the hazards of a 2007 Bear Market.

As expected, the signals further weakened and I would expect a substantial amount of rising momentum (think SPX 1150) to switch us over to a buy. In order to compare this latest sell signal, I've posted my data in its entirety.

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Monday could be a key pivot day, but I still see it as a short-term bullish move within the price channels. Heck even I'm tempted to move into the I-fund for 3-7 days, but short-term TSP moves never seem to work out well for me.

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I'm sure you've heard by now a few of the EURO countries have been taking some hits. I don't have the Spain index per say, but here's the closest thing I have and it's ugly. Notice the severe drop below the red 200 EMA Bollinger band with a tight .03 deviation? Ugly...

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Here is the Triad, with 4 of 5 systems all in red...

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Futures are up strong this morning, I'd be surprised if we didn't finish the day with a 38.2% retracement off the lows. Today we can still ride within the price channel and hit the 38.2%

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I'm sure you've heard by now a few of the EURO countries have been taking some hits. I don't have the Spain index per say, but here's the closest thing I have and it's ugly. Notice the severe drop below the red 200 EMA Bollinger band with a tight .03 deviation? Ugly...

View attachment 8248


Here is the Triad, with 4 of 5 systems all in red...

View attachment 8249

Jason,

You have convinced me.:) I bailed to 100% F today and see what happens the rest of the month. The risk/reward looks a little risky to me to stay put in stock funds.

I appreciate your charts and commentary.
 
Jason,

You have convinced me.:) I bailed to 100% F today and see what happens the rest of the month. The risk/reward looks a little risky to me to stay put in stock funds.

I appreciate your charts and commentary.

Thanks Gumby, I took another look at bonds tonight, but I still can't decide what's going to happen.

No changes in the Triad

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looks like a possible bear flag :confused:


Yes it does, but it hasn't materaized as quickly as I was expecting, so I dropped the smaller bear flag channel down just a bit. One thing is becoming clear, as of late neither buyers nor sellers are wanting to push prices around much.

That's fine by me, I-Fund prices are getting cheaper, I may even DCA down 10% at the end of each month, to get ahead of my signals.
 
I have been looking at the I fund also but I am unsure of the dollar's direction. Would like to catch an up day and get out right away.
 
I have been looking at the I fund also but I am unsure of the dollar's direction. Would like to catch an up day and get out right away.


You and me both, but I suck at timing, especially with just 2 IFTs a month. One thing I've noticed, it's been almost a month since since the dollar has touched its 10MA.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see another 100 points added to the Dow for a total 200 point move.
 
Prices are still within the rising Bear Flag. I realize I'm bent, but never-the-less I won't be surprised to see a end of day sell-off.

While I don't see an end of day sell off, my target is still 1089, which is close to the top of your bear flag.:D
 
Well I hope you get to exit at your price target, I myself would much rather be invested rather than sitting it out waiting for crash...:p
 
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