JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

The good news is on the hourly charts we broke through, tested and closed above this descending trendline & the 20 SMA. However, we still need to see a higher swing high, with a close at/above 1092. Perhaps tomorrow will reveal the market's true intentions...

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[nasa1974]

The good news is on the hourly charts we broke through, tested and closed above this descending trendline & the 20 SMA. However, we still need to see a higher swing high, with a close at/above 1092. Perhaps tomorrow will reveal the market's true intentions...

That's what I'm afraid of. :worried:

 

[JTH]

I consider myself fortunate to have exited to the G-Fund on an up day. This gives me some time to focus on my ROTH IRA where I can look for some good deals on devalued stocks. Perhaps Birchtree can point out some stinkers I should check out? As for my exit today, I'd much rather be wrong and in cash, than wrong in stocks.

The ADL exited to the G-Fund EOB today, and it could be here a minimum of 2 weeks. It's purposefully designed not to flip flop, so it will take some definitive broad market strength to switch it over to a buy.

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[JTH]

That's what I'm afraid of. :worried:

After today's action I'm more optimistic we can still turn things around. On the Monthly chart we do have strong support @ 1035-40 based on previous candlestick support, the 200 SMA, and the Mar-Jan Fibonacci levels. For a long-term investor 1035 isn't that far away.

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[Birchtree]

I just listed my latest portfolio that I plan to build as a scarifice to the margin virgin when the call requires me to back up. I'm trying a strategy to protect from disturbing my oceanic base and allow it to act as my foundation to produce income with reinvestment at this time. At some point several years from now I'll sweep the dividends into an account for the wife. I listed 23 different stocks that I'll be buying as well as my dollar cost averaging down into my base.

 

[JTH]

Nice to see the higher high we were looking for.

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[poolman]

Nice to see the higher high we were looking for.

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Good for you JTH, I'm glad your getting a bounce. I guess the Sentiment shift was the new month.

February

I'm still not convinced of this bounce. I would like to see if S&P 1100 will have any relevance. After that I will decide if we don't get a runaway market. Tough with those 2 IFT'S.

 

[JTH]

I'm still not convinced of this bounce. I would like to see if S&P 1100 will have any relevance. After that I will decide if we don't get a runaway market. Tough with those 2 IFT'S.

I'm sitting in the G-fund with no regrets. I keep hearing crud about the financials not reporting well. If we couldn't trust banks last year, what's changed and why should we trust them now?

What are we going to do if we can't break through 1150? I'll gladly sit this one out and wait for the markets to sort themselves out.

 

[JTH]

Systems remain unchanged for today. I should point out the ADL hasn't gone to a hard sell in that the S1, S2, & S3 signals refuse to flip over.

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[JTH]

Just thought I'd add that recently both the British Pound and Euro have put in the famous 50/200 SMA Death Cross against the Dollar. Long-term this doesn't bode well for the currency portion of the I-Fund.

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[JTH]

For SPX we still have room to go down further. On the Hourly charts the 20 SMA & 23.6% retracement should serve as an area of support. The TRAN is taking a much bigger hit while the NASDAQ is showing the least weakness.

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[Guest2]

I think those Bollinger Bands will tighten up rather quickly. I'm looking at
1090 or below (S&P) to jump back in. But I'll weigh that out against those
nice economic and earning reports. Trans is a BIG concern too !

 

[JTH]

The Triad remains unchanged. If you're looking for a glimmer of hope, I will point out we got a 15 minute Golden Crossover on the S&P 500.

I saw mixed readings in the markets today.

Yields across the board up... (Bad for Bonds)
5-year 1.19%
10-year 1.87%
30-Year 1.80%

Transports down big -1.39%
Nasdaq 100 up .44%
NASDAQ flat .04%
S&P 500 down .55%
S&P 600 down .74%

Poolman has been in the G-Fund all year, he's a better timer than most of us here, so I have to give that some weight and it does make me feel good knowing I'm in good company in the G-Fund.

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[JTH]

Ugly start

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[Birchtree]

It's a great buying opportunity - let's see if there is anyone that dares to step up. This euro zone stuff is just nonsense - the euro and dollar are just adjusting to the new realities. The global recoveries are intact - put out the word.

 

[JTH]

It's a great buying opportunity - let's see if there is anyone that dares to step up. This euro zone stuff is just nonsense - the euro and dollar are just adjusting to the new realities. The global recoveries are intact - put out the word.

Birchtree, it's time to prune the dead branches off your portfolio. SPX 1035 is a 10% correction and the market gets what the market wants. Odds favor seeing 1035 before we see 1150 again. I'd much rather wait to DCA into strength, not weakness.

 

[JTH]

You know it's a bad day in the markets when you're sitting in the G-Fund and climb 126 slots on the tracker.

No changes, 4 of 5 systems remain in the G-Fund, boring but true...

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[JTH]

5 minute view of today's price action, good luck.

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[JTH]

Waiting for a test of the upper channel, and watching the reaction.

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[poolman]

Waiting for a test of the upper channel, and watching the reaction.

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Nice Chart JTH