JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Going back 4 months, AGG has not had more than 3 consecutive down days in a row. Will today be #4?

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[JTH]

The Necktie represents the angle & length of decent from the 3 previous pullbacks.

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[JTH]

Based ON my magical proprietary necktie we still have 1-4 days left in this pullback. :cheesy:

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[JTH]

If you recall, I spoke of September's Monthly Pivot points as applied to October's chart. We can see were the Mid-Resistance 1 level is being tested by the hourly candlesticks.

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[JTH]

The Transports are sitting at the critical 76.40% Fibonacci level. If this level can't hold, then the next logical step is a complete retracement from the previous swing high/low.

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[JTH]

The NASDAQ is a stubborn little wanker. It is showing the most strength of the "Big 3" by sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. I suppose we should be thankful Tech, the financials, & the dollar's decline have led this rally. With the dollar making a bid and financials sputtering, if tech falls down, then this rally would likly be over... Am I right?

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[mayday]

Very informative thanx JT You ought to teach economics.

 

[JTH]

From swing high/low the S&P 500 Financials have fallen through a 200.1600 50% retracement, and have tested a 197.3445 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It would be nice if they lay around these levels for awhile, then pick back up for the next swing high rally.

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[FAB1]

Magic Necktie

Even tho I am not skilled in the jargon - I am slowly absorbing everything I read at the forum and starting to get the picture - thanks

 

[JTH]

Magic Necktie

Even tho I am not skilled in the jargon - I am slowly absorbing everything I read at the forum and starting to get the picture - thanks

Magic Necktie is just a term I made up. I drew lines from the previous 3 waves down. Then I copied those lines over to our last swing high. It's sort of like projecting the path of a hurricane. It's really just an exercise and a way to get a comparison for the strength of this currect pullback.

 

[JTH]

Very informative thanx JT You ought to teach economics.

Thanks for dropping in, if anything I'm teaching myself

 

[JTH]

I'm expecting for us to stay within the descending red price channel. If this is the case, than today we shouldn't close below 1062 or above 1086. A close below 1062 would indicate we are accelerating to the downside faster than the initial path of decline. As we can see we are hovering at the 38.2% Fibonacci level which just so happens to be September's Mid-Resistance #1 Pivot Point.

No I don't believe in coincidence.... :cheesy:

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[JTH]

Let's put some perspective on the Dollar. While yesterday UPP was rejected by its 20SMA, it did close above its 20EMA. Today it's broken through both the 20 SMA/EMA, if we close today above these levels in the short-term the dollar is bullish. But (as pointed out by Tom) we have serious resistance at the 22.85ish 50 SMA/EMA and we have not closed above this moving average since mid April.

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[JTH]

The Transports have fallen just above the 61.80% retracement from the recent swing low/high We need to hold here... In additon, I realize this doesn't meet the technical specifications for a Head & Shoulders, but it did then the projected drop would take us below the previous swing low...

The good news is the (non technical) head and shoulder's formation I spoke about is near completion.
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[mayday]

What you carve pumpkins to?

 

[JTH]

Transports are working on a bounce, perhaps ready to fill the open gap?
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[JTH]

The long-term system I am using has put the Transports from a buy/hold to a neutral/hold. The others ($SPX, $EMW, NASDAQ) are still on a buy/hold. It's already ugly but it's getting worse.

The Transports are trading under their 20, 50, & 75 SMA/EMAs.

The past 5 days have seen an increase in volume above the volume's 20 SMA.

The ADX trend strenth indicator is gaining momentum to the downside. The -DI (negative trend strength) crossed over the +DI (positive trend strength) indicator.

On the Slow Stochastics, they are both under 20

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[JTH]

I love it when I post a chart and the very next day it gets violated...
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[JTH]

I know it might seem bad out there but trust me when I say I know what it's like to buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

If you're holding right now, here is some perspective to make you feel a little better.

The Magical Purple Necktie (MPN) reperesents the previous 3 pullbacks. We have violated 2 of the 3 but not the 3rd one sitting at 1040. We also have 2 additional days left to play within the MPN.

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[mayday]

U gota luv them charts.