JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Getting bent here, this market blows chunks

 

[Bquat]

This month, C-Fund is outperforming the S-Fund by a significant margin, that doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.

I don't have a warm fuzzy to give you either.

 

[JTH]

PnF: Choppy, Mixed & Manic

Wilshire 4500 closes outside its Bollinger Bands by a significant margin

 

[JTH]

To give us some perspective, here's a weekly chart of the small caps 3X ETF TNA, showing us the largest price swing (ATR) over the past 2 years.

 

[OBXTrader]

Bonds getting pounded and TNA is barely positive. Not a big fan of the divergence either. Well, I have 19 minutes to IFT or wait until Monday.

To give us some perspective, here's a weekly chart of the small caps 3X ETF TNA, showing us the largest price swing (ATR) over the past 2 years.

View attachment 33562

 

[JTH]

To give us some perspective, here's a weekly chart of the small caps 3X ETF TNA, showing us the largest price swing (ATR) over the past 2 years.

Yea I'm not liking any of this, the kicker is I haven't spent much time watching the markets due to my heavy workload. I'll definitely need to carve out some time this weekend to establish a game plan.

 

[jpcavin]

Yea I'm not liking any of this, the kicker is I haven't spent much time watching the markets due to my heavy workload. I'll definitely need to carve out some time this weekend to establish a game plan.

I may get out on the next bounce...or diversify a little. :worried:

 

[JTH]

JANUARY: It's Report Card Time


Given the volatility, finishing out the month with -1.57% was no surprise, I calculated I should stay invested the majority of the month (which I did) and that calculation did not yield the desired results, but it did yield the desired outcome in the fact I am outperforming the C-Fund by 1.43% and the S-Fund by .28%


FEBRUARY: It's Report Card Time, 2.71% YTD, 4.37% MTD


Plan was executed precisely, but the markets exceeded expectations, therefore I lost the edge I had from January. I'm currently outperforming G/F/C and need to catch up to the S-Fund. Still, it was a great month, where even blindfolded dart-throwing monkeys made money. I'm down 2.29% from my 2.50% monthly goal, which means I need to make 4.79% in March to meet my 30% yearly goal.


MARCH: It's Report Card Time, 4.73% YTD, 1.96% MTD


That's twice this year I've chosen to stay invested towards the end of the month and twice I was burned. Thus far, I'm annoyed with my returns, and while I believe this market has been relatively easy to read, translating that into gains has been easier said than done. I may decide to get more aggressive, going back into scalper mode, which has worked well for me in the past. On the brighter side, the 3-day stint in the G-fund helped close my performance gap against the S-Fund and this month was a top 150 performance.

April: It's Report Card Time, 1.83% YTD, -2.77% MTD


With the last 2 of 3 monthly side-steps, resulting in losing an edge, I haven't been able to get in sync with the markets much this year. Statistical expectations for April were high, but some indexes fell short, instead giving us an ugly end of month drop. Tsk tsk, there's much work to be done in May…

 

[JTH]

S&P 500 flips back over to a buy with a Double Top Breakout




Didn't have much time over the weekend to crank out stats, here's a consolidated version using different forms of past seasonality.

 

[OBXTrader]

Well, since Friday was the first day I could IFT again, I am kind of glad I didn't since it was a "buy high" day. Today (so far) is a repeat of my concerns I had on Friday. It's still early and I can open mouth and chew on my foot later. It's a long month left and the G Fund gives me Coffee and Donut money each morning.

Bonds getting pounded and TNA is barely positive. Not a big fan of the divergence either. Well, I have 19 minutes to IFT or wait until Monday.

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB Today 100F (rather lose my fortune in the F-Fund)

 

[JTH]

Didn't have time to crank out the data, just thought I'd let you know that the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 flipped back over to a sell. This leaves AGG, SPX, W4500, TRAN, NDX 100 all on a sell.

 

[JTH]

Big move in the 3X energy ETF

 

[Bquat]

Didn't have time to crank out the data, just thought I'd let you know that the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 flipped back over to a sell. This leaves AGG, SPX, W4500, TRAN, NDX 100 all on a sell.

So if everything is on a sell that's a buy right?

 

[soon2retire]

Thanks, JTH!

 

[JTH]

Thanks, JTH!

So if everything is on a sell that's a buy right?

Well it's worked the previous bazillion times...

 

[Bquat]

IFT EoB Today 100F (rather lose my fortune in the F-Fund)

Since you is, what do you think of F Fund? Measured move done or long term bad H&S? Just wondering because you're longer term chart guy::suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Since you is, what do you think of F Fund? Measured move done or long term bad H&S? Just wondering because you're longer term chart guy::suspicious:

I'm sitting on my hands until I can set aside some time to analyze the price action. For now, I think AGG has met its downside price target, and I'm watching the retracement bounce.

 

[JTH]

Transports flip back over to a buy, with 1 higher O/X, we now have a minor uptrend.

 

[Frixxxx]

Transports flip back over to a buy, with 1 higher O/X, we now have a minor uptrend.

Minor.....repeat, minor, had an actual MAJOR uptrend been signaled, you would have been directed to invest accordingly.....This is only a test!:ban: