jpcavin's Account Talk

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"Volatility looks to remain subdued and drifting lower keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts also look good for more upside with the IWM the strongest even at all-time highs, and the SPY and QQQ showing signs of a possible short term pause before another move up."
 
Nice benchmarks for frame of reference. But does anyone else feel like they are getting advice from a teen that is probably still in high school?

 
jpcavin said:
Nice benchmarks for frame of reference. But does anyone else feel like they are getting advice from a teen that is probably still in high school?
Click to expand...

He does look super young haha, but good advice is good advice, no matter who you're getting it from. I for one plan to teach my kids about investing when they grow up & plan to get them started early. Just saving your money in the bank doesn't cut in this day & age.
 
This is a simple calculator but quite an eye opener..

Retirement Calculator - Bloomberg


Lets assume you are 52 and you are retiring at age 67 and you only have $50,000 in TSP and you contribute $15,000 a year. Toggle between 8% and 24% annual rate of return. The difference is mind blowing. Ok, I am going to concentrate on getting my 2% a month and the hell with trying to squeeze every little fraction of a percent. Had I preserved my 6.37%+ by getting out a few days ago when that little voice in my head was telling me to, I would be planning my next 2%.
 
It's all well and good to plan on getting your next 2%, but be aware that too many of these projections start at zero and only go up from there. If you don't make it one month you can try for 4% the next or so the thinking goes. In reality you can go negative trying for that 2% and spend the rest of the year+ just trying to get back to zero. You can look at my returns to see that. So remember it's the overall long term returns that count. Trade safe and what ever you do don't follow me. :)
 
Wow, the difference between 8% and 10% return for me is about $1M (1.5 vs 2.6). That's nuts!

jpcavin said:
This is a simple calculator but quite an eye opener..

Retirement Calculator - Bloomberg


Lets assume you are 52 and you are retiring at age 67 and you only have $50,000 in TSP and you contribute $15,000 a year. Toggle between 8% and 24% annual rate of return. The difference is mind blowing. Ok, I am going to concentrate on getting my 2% a month and the hell with trying to squeeze every little fraction of a percent. Had I preserved my 6.37%+ by getting out a few days ago when that little voice in my head was telling me to, I would be planning my next 2%.
Click to expand...
 
jpcavin said:
This is a simple calculator but quite an eye opener..

Retirement Calculator - Bloomberg


Lets assume you are 52 and you are retiring at age 67 and you only have $50,000 in TSP and you contribute $15,000 a year. Toggle between 8% and 24% annual rate of return. The difference is mind blowing. Ok, I am going to concentrate on getting my 2% a month and the hell with trying to squeeze every little fraction of a percent. Had I preserved my 6.37%+ by getting out a few days ago when that little voice in my head was telling me to, I would be planning my next 2%.
Click to expand...

JP,

I don't know how long you have been investing, but attempting to reach an average of 24%/year (or the odd concept of 2%/month) is impossible. I haven't worked my numbers out for this month's Burrocrat thread, but you are one of the highest performers on the AT and you are averaging about 16%/year. with a risk of 8.7%/year. As far as I can tell you, wwwTractor and ContrarianJeff (although he has been out of the market the last two years) are in rarefied air with those kind of numbers. However, since we have 'friended' ourselves, I have to remind you that we do not have 2008 numbers for you and Tractor. Trust me, that would change things dramatically with the long term risk your allocations average. Your risk average seems to be around 15% - 20%. That means that without some very fancy footwork and lots of luck you would have lost about 30% - 44% in 2008. For example, for a big chunk of 2008 I was actually ahead by 4% in 2008 (but, see PoolMan - that stud) because I forsaw the dump. But I got back in when the market stabilized for some time only to watch my account dump 16% or so in the two days it took me to bail out.

Personally, I think a long term average of 8% - 12% is reachable as long as you can stomach C/S/I investing. Outside of that means that you are investing in a single fund (either the C or the S) and trying to market time all of the time out to the G only on the 2% declines that happen in some weeks/months. If you do that your risk is very, very high and you will likely bail at the bottom and be all squirrely about getting back in.

You have a great longish term tool in the AT. Just look at the great traders that bombed out by missing just a few moves. I will not drop names - but look at the 2008 AT and compare... Striving for a 24% return takes you way beyond any trader in history. Nobody hits that mark. Set yourself for 10% if you are young enough and plan you life around that result.
 
Boghie said:
JP,

I don't know how long you have been investing, but attempting to reach an average of 24%/year (or the odd concept of 2%/month) is impossible. I haven't worked my numbers out for this month's Burrocrat thread, but you are one of the highest performers on the AT and you are averaging about 16%/year. with a risk of 8.7%/year. As far as I can tell you, wwwTractor and ContrarianJeff (although he has been out of the market the last two years) are in rarefied air with those kind of numbers. However, since we have 'friended' ourselves, I have to remind you that we do not have 2008 numbers for you and Tractor. Trust me, that would change things dramatically with the long term risk your allocations average. Your risk average seems to be around 15% - 20%. That means that without some very fancy footwork and lots of luck you would have lost about 30% - 44% in 2008. For example, for a big chunk of 2008 I was actually ahead by 4% in 2008 (but, see PoolMan - that stud) because I forsaw the dump. But I got back in when the market stabilized for some time only to watch my account dump 16% or so in the two days it took me to bail out.

Personally, I think a long term average of 8% - 12% is reachable as long as you can stomach C/S/I investing. Outside of that means that you are investing in a single fund (either the C or the S) and trying to market time all of the time out to the G only on the 2% declines that happen in some weeks/months. If you do that your risk is very, very high and you will likely bail at the bottom and be all squirrely about getting back in.

You have a great longish term tool in the AT. Just look at the great traders that bombed out by missing just a few moves. I will not drop names - but look at the 2008 AT and compare... Striving for a 24% return takes you way beyond any trader in history. Nobody hits that mark. Set yourself for 10% if you are young enough and plan you life around that result.
Click to expand...


Completely agree with you Boghie. My main emphasis was on the difference a percent or two makes, as bmneveu stated. Sometimes I get too complacent and other times I get too greedy, neither of which is good for my portfolio. So instead of taking the "let it ride" attitude, I am taking my winnings where I can and look for another opportunity to add to my base.

Thanks for stopping by. Your insight I always welcomed.
 
This is not the ending I was looking for. The charts lied! :eek: There won't be any dancing tonight but there sure will be lots of drinking. :alcoholic::1244:
 
I lied, I don't drink-much. I'll probably throw a pity party with popcorn, soda, and old episodes of All in the Family. :17:
 
I think DBA might like this:

Bollinger bands (50, 2) - Day And Swing Traders

There is also al article called '5 Profitable Setups Through Bollinger Bands' using overlapping Bollinger bands for a great edge... at www.dukescopy.com but I cannot access the link from my current peripheral so I'm unable to provide a link.

http://stks.co/b20hG (maybe?)

Note to self: When the price bounces off of the lower band and crosses the middle band, then the upper band becomes the price target.
 
Last edited:
jpcavin said:
I think DBA might like this:

Bollinger bands (50, 2) - Day And Swing Traders

There is also al article called '5 Profitable Setups Through Bollinger Bands' using overlapping Bollinger bands for a great edge... at www.dukescopy.com but I cannot access the link from my current peripheral so I'm unable to provide a link.

http://stks.co/b20hG (maybe?)

Note to self: When the price bounces off of the lower band and crosses the middle band, then the upper band becomes the price target.
Click to expand...
Hi! Your right...I loved these. They are very good articles !! The maybe link worked. I had not tried the 50 day setting before but will look at it. Thank you! :smile:

P.S. Have been tinkeriing with use of a second set of bands set at a single deviation.
 
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