jpcavin's Account Talk

[crws]

In my humble opinion - Volitility will dominate over the short term and the Markets will likely fall lower.

The S Fund is often the faster 'gainer' which is why I use it first when I do go in - but it's also the faster 'loser' when things get bad.

We are not in a BULL Market at the present time and undergoing a brief correction - with another 3 to 6 months of gains similar to past 6 months. We are still in a 'Recovery stage' of a Global Economic Disaster.

With Wisconsin defining the methods by which State Budgets can be most soundly addressed; The Japan Disaster; Lybia and the rising cost of gas; and the general sense of fear from all these things (and others) I would more lean towards Safety.

I sincerely hope you the very best !!

excellent piece of CYA advice.... Way to say it, Steady.

IMO, put all your contributions in G, so you can buy in when things settle down.
You can still get that changed before your transaction happens.

A panic move of allocations with 1 IFT will lock you out of any possible recovery for the rest of the month.

This is OPEX week, and after today, the longs might throw in the towel ST.

 

[jpcavin]

In my humble opinion - Volitility will dominate over the short term and the Markets will likely fall lower.

The S Fund is often the faster 'gainer' which is why I use it first when I do go in - but it's also the faster 'loser' when things get bad.

We are not in a BULL Market at the present time and undergoing a brief correction - with another 3 to 6 months of gains similar to past 6 months. We are still in a 'Recovery stage' of a Global Economic Disaster.

With Wisconsin defining the methods by which State Budgets can be most soundly addressed; The Japan Disaster; Lybia and the rising cost of gas; and the general sense of fear from all these things (and others) I would more lean towards Safety.

I sincerely hope you the very best !!

Thank you Steady. I don't have much to lose in comparison to Birch and probably many more people in this MB. I also have over 20 years before I retire so plenty of time to get it all back.
My biggest frustration is putting all the pieces together so that I can make some risky but educated moves. Timing the market for some quick gains is just so frustrating! I don't have enough nohow and it's driving me nuts!:nuts: Reasearch only points me to towards long term value investing. Not that that is a bad thing. However, that is not getting me any closer to what I would like to learn. In the end, it will all work out. It always does.

 

[jpcavin]

excellent piece of CYA advice.... Way to say it, Steady.

IMO, put all your contributions in G, so you can buy in when things settle down.
You can still get that changed before your transaction happens.

A panic move of allocations with 1 IFT will lock you out of any possible recovery for the rest of the month.

This is OPEX week, and after today, the longs might throw in the towel ST.

That's a good idea too. Been told the same by a few other members. Maybe I'll try another strategy as well. Just buy the lowest priced fund at the time my contribution goes in....whichever fund that may be.

 

[jpcavin]

For those of you that have been investing in and following the TSP funds for quite some time....Besides the G fund, have all the funds experienced extreme lows and highs or is there any one fund that has been more stable compared to the rest?

 

[jpcavin]

All the acronyms, parables, and hyperboles in this MB are really kicking my butt. For example, I was not aware that a dead cat could move, much less jump! So how high can a dead cat jump? :suspicious:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Not far, but they have a heck of a bounce

 

[tsptalk]

For example, I was not aware that a dead cat could move, much less jump! So how high can a dead cat jump? :suspicious:

It's not so much a jump, as a bounce. And how high it bounces depends on how far it fell.

 

[jpcavin]

It's not so much a jump, as a bounce. And how high it bounces depends on how far it fell.

You guys kill me! :laugh:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

It's not so much a jump, as a bounce. And how high it bounces depends on how far it fell.

Or how hard you throw it...

 

[jpcavin]

Or how hard you throw it...

 

[FAB1]

All the acronyms, parables, and hyperboles in this MB are really kicking my butt. For example, I was not aware that a dead cat could move, much less jump! So how high can a dead cat jump? :suspicious:

Do I sense that we are not fully aware of what this is?

Let me assist!

The phrase "dead cat bounce" is an inference that even a lifeless, motionless body will bounce a little (if you picked it up and dropped it).

There is no life in the body, it cant animate itself, because its dead - but hitting the floor causes an opposite reaction that gravity quickly cuts short.

If we apply that to the market a dead cat bounce would signify that the market had lost its own "life" to ascend, and any rally at after a sharp dip would be your "involuntary bounce back".

Of course its just a cute saying that we use and little truth to it. We say it to assuage ourselves of grief with a little dry humor when we have just lost our ass in the stock market!!

 

[Birchtree]

Nikke1 225 is up +455 tonight - that's more than a dead cat bounce. An 800 point gain would be a blessing for all concerned.

 

[Birchtree]

I had such a nice day today staying away from the market - sometimes that can be the best policy. My oceanic account only gave back $43K when it could easily have been greater than $100K. This is the way diversification is supposed to work - now tomorrow may be another story of real pain but I think we have bottomed. Most of the time you won't know you are on the bottom unless you are standing on it. My words of wisdom: the bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves and as long as the prevailing belief is that it's a cyclical bull within a secular bear.

 

[jpcavin]

Heard a lot of negatives regarding jumping into equities(specially I Fund) over the weekend. The concensus was to play it save over the weekend and wait and see what Monday brings. I figured it was a good opportunity to gain some ground while the majority was "playing it save". I went 50S/50I as of COB 3/18. Looks like it may have been a good move. Will see by the end of the day.

 

[Gumby]

Heard a lot of negatives regarding jumping into equities(specially I Fund) over the weekend. The concensus was to play it save over the weekend and wait and see what Monday brings. I figured it was a good opportunity to gain some ground while the majority was "playing it save". I went 50S/50I as of COB 3/18. Looks like it may have been a good move. Will see by the end of the day.

You have done well
There is no better feeling than scalping a percent or two and then jump back to safety.

 

[jpcavin]

You have done well
There is no better feeling than scalping a percent or two and then jump back to safety.

There is no better feeling than being in safety when the markets start to go down. I guess my next lesson will be knowing when to cut off the greed so I can enjoy sitting on the Lilly pad.

 

[JamesE]

There is no better feeling than being in safety when the markets start to go down. I guess my next lesson will be knowing when to cut off the greed so I can enjoy sitting on the Lilly pad.

Yeah well there's no worse feeling than sitting in G and watching the I fund leave you in the dust with 3-4% day too... Then you think ha, that was just a fluke, there'll be some give back, only to find that your waiting on a train that's already gone. Its too easy to make a bad re-entry.


I feel waaaay worse sitting out than being "stuck" in. JMO.

 

[jpcavin]

Yeah well there's no worse feeling than sitting in G and watching the I fund leave you in the dust with 3-4% day too... Then you think ha, that was just a fluke, there'll be some give back, only to find that your waiting on a train that's already gone. Its too easy to make a bad re-entry.


I feel waaaay worse sitting out than being "stuck" in. JMO.

I honestly can't decide which is worse. I guess I'll have to revise my opinion to that of ambivalence.

 

[Gumby]

I honestly can't decide which is worse. I guess I'll have to revise my opinion to that of ambivalence.

I must admit that I am happy that I'm in the market today....... Hopefully Barclays will give a +FV to go along with the EFA gains today.
There is no ambivalence on that for my part...... But tomorrow may be a different story.

 

[jpcavin]

I must admit that I am happy that I'm in the market today....... Hopefully Barclays will give a +FV to go along with the EFA gains today.
There is no ambivalence on that for my part...... But tomorrow may be a different story.

Ok, I've been meaning to ask...what is "FV"?