jpcavin's Account Talk

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Whoa, +20% what? How are you doing that?

I read the posts but still don't make sense to me.

Explain your strategy in 10 words or less for us simple folk?
 
Burro

Can't do it in 10 words or less. Look for 30 words or less at the end of this email.

1. I measure the market mood with using a monetary filter. I look at the 33 week yield average of the 3Y Note and 5Y Note. If the yields are lower than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are down and favorable. If the yields are higher than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are rising and unfavorable.

2. I measure the NASDAQ Composite/NYSE relative strength. I compare the weekly closing levels of the two. Then I calculate the 10 week relative strength ratio of the weekly readings. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands above it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ Composite to be leading the NYSE. This is bullish. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands below it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ to be lagging the the NYSE in relative strength. This is less Bullish (neutral).

3. I also follow the NASDAQ Composite Triple Momentum Timing Model. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P and it tends to exaggerate the ups and downs. That is my main guide. Momentum ended negative and I should have sold today but I didn't have time to log in and get out. That has been the case a couple of times. I wanted to get out and couldn't and I just happened to get lucky. Add to that the fact that I am also somewhat of a risk taker. I got in at a very low price (573 - W4500)so if it goes down a bit, it's no big deal in my book.

4. In addition, limited IFT's sometimes make you take more risk (i.e. staying in equities through end of month so you still have 2 IFT's next month).


I post my little tracker from time to time. It is intended for longer term investing so I don't follow it to a "T".

In 30 words or less....
Look at the "Composite" column of my tracker. Supposedly, it's a buy when the "Composite" goes over 4% and Sell when it goes below 4%.

Happy trading!
 
jpcavin: CONGRATULATION!!! Very Impressive... and not only now that you have reached the top, but I have been observing you scalating consistently... Hope you keep there... Thank you for sharing your technical approach also... :)
 
jpcavin said:
...

Can't do it in 10 words or less. Look for 30 words or less at the end of this email.

...
Click to expand...

Amazing climb up the tracker JP! Congratulations ... may your voodoo stay w/ you! And thanks for sharing your "simple" system! That's what's great about this site -- I learn something almost every day!
 
Good question. My goal is to make as much money as possible. Just don't know if the well is dry or not.
 
+22% is closing in on 2% per month. That would have been one lofty goal at the beginning of the year and after today you could possibly be there.
Dance with what got you here. Good luck.
 
WorkFE said:
+22% is closing in on 2% per month. That would have been one lofty goal at the beginning of the year and after today you could possibly be there.
Dance with what got you here. Good luck.
Click to expand...

I would be happy with 24% for the year. I would be happier with 36% :laugh::laugh: I seriously contemplated getting out but missed my deadline. Looks like the decision has been made for me. We'll see if I get lucky again.
 
jpcavin said:
Burro

Can't do it in 10 words or less. Look for 30 words or less at the end of this email.

1. I measure the market mood with using a monetary filter. I look at the 33 week yield average of the 3Y Note and 5Y Note. If the yields are lower than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are down and favorable. If the yields are higher than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are rising and unfavorable.

2. I measure the NASDAQ Composite/NYSE relative strength. I compare the weekly closing levels of the two. Then I calculate the 10 week relative strength ratio of the weekly readings. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands above it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ Composite to be leading the NYSE. This is bullish. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands below it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ to be lagging the the NYSE in relative strength. This is less Bullish (neutral).

3. I also follow the NASDAQ Composite Triple Momentum Timing Model. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P and it tends to exaggerate the ups and downs. That is my main guide. Momentum ended negative and I should have sold today but I didn't have time to log in and get out. That has been the case a couple of times. I wanted to get out and couldn't and I just happened to get lucky. Add to that the fact that I am also somewhat of a risk taker. I got in at a very low price (573 - W4500)so if it goes down a bit, it's no big deal in my book.

4. In addition, limited IFT's sometimes make you take more risk (i.e. staying in equities through end of month so you still have 2 IFT's next month).


I post my little tracker from time to time. It is intended for longer term investing so I don't follow it to a "T".

In 30 words or less....
Look at the "Composite" column of my tracker. Supposedly, it's a buy when the "Composite" goes over 4% and Sell when it goes below 4%.

Happy trading!
Click to expand...

That's telling em! Your the new guru!
 
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