-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
jpcavin's Account Talk
- Thread starter jpcavin
- Start date
jpcavin
Well-known member
Burro
Can't do it in 10 words or less. Look for 30 words or less at the end of this email.
1. I measure the market mood with using a monetary filter. I look at the 33 week yield average of the 3Y Note and 5Y Note. If the yields are lower than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are down and favorable. If the yields are higher than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are rising and unfavorable.
2. I measure the NASDAQ Composite/NYSE relative strength. I compare the weekly closing levels of the two. Then I calculate the 10 week relative strength ratio of the weekly readings. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands above it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ Composite to be leading the NYSE. This is bullish. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands below it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ to be lagging the the NYSE in relative strength. This is less Bullish (neutral).
3. I also follow the NASDAQ Composite Triple Momentum Timing Model. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P and it tends to exaggerate the ups and downs. That is my main guide. Momentum ended negative and I should have sold today but I didn't have time to log in and get out. That has been the case a couple of times. I wanted to get out and couldn't and I just happened to get lucky. Add to that the fact that I am also somewhat of a risk taker. I got in at a very low price (573 - W4500)so if it goes down a bit, it's no big deal in my book.
4. In addition, limited IFT's sometimes make you take more risk (i.e. staying in equities through end of month so you still have 2 IFT's next month).
I post my little tracker from time to time. It is intended for longer term investing so I don't follow it to a "T".
In 30 words or less....
Look at the "Composite" column of my tracker. Supposedly, it's a buy when the "Composite" goes over 4% and Sell when it goes below 4%.
Happy trading!
Can't do it in 10 words or less. Look for 30 words or less at the end of this email.
1. I measure the market mood with using a monetary filter. I look at the 33 week yield average of the 3Y Note and 5Y Note. If the yields are lower than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are down and favorable. If the yields are higher than the previous 33 weeks, interest rate trends are rising and unfavorable.
2. I measure the NASDAQ Composite/NYSE relative strength. I compare the weekly closing levels of the two. Then I calculate the 10 week relative strength ratio of the weekly readings. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands above it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ Composite to be leading the NYSE. This is bullish. If the NASDAQ/NYSE Index relative strength ratio stands below it's 10-week moving average, consider the NASDAQ to be lagging the the NYSE in relative strength. This is less Bullish (neutral).
3. I also follow the NASDAQ Composite Triple Momentum Timing Model. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P and it tends to exaggerate the ups and downs. That is my main guide. Momentum ended negative and I should have sold today but I didn't have time to log in and get out. That has been the case a couple of times. I wanted to get out and couldn't and I just happened to get lucky. Add to that the fact that I am also somewhat of a risk taker. I got in at a very low price (573 - W4500)so if it goes down a bit, it's no big deal in my book.
4. In addition, limited IFT's sometimes make you take more risk (i.e. staying in equities through end of month so you still have 2 IFT's next month).
I post my little tracker from time to time. It is intended for longer term investing so I don't follow it to a "T".
In 30 words or less....
Look at the "Composite" column of my tracker. Supposedly, it's a buy when the "Composite" goes over 4% and Sell when it goes below 4%.
Happy trading!
Khotso
Active member
Amazing climb up the tracker JP! Congratulations ... may your voodoo stay w/ you! And thanks for sharing your "simple" system! That's what's great about this site -- I learn something almost every day!
jpcavin
Well-known member
:laugh: Big John would lock in his gains but he would also like to be invested at the start of the month to retain his 2 IFT's.
jpcavin
Well-known member
I would be happy with 24% for the year. I would be happier with 36% :laugh::laugh: I seriously contemplated getting out but missed my deadline. Looks like the decision has been made for me. We'll see if I get lucky again.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Doesn't it suck when work gets in the way of making money? :suspicious:
:laugh::laugh:
bmneveu
Well-known member
I take lunch at 11am every day for the main purpose of checking for potential IFT's, hahah.
FAB1
Well-known member
That's telling em! Your the new guru!
jpcavin
Well-known member
Similar threads
