2/01/13
The indices were mixed yesterday with the Dow pulling back another 50-points while the Nasdaq was flat and small caps saw decent gains.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Thursday wrapped up a great month with the best gains for the month of January since 1997.
sentimenTrader.com says: The S&P 500 rose more than 5% in January, to close at a new 12-month high. Of the 14 other times that has occurred since 1928, 12 of them gained over the next six months, averaging +7.7%. Since 1950, all 9 instances rose over the next six months, averaging +11.0%.
The S&P 500 dipped back below 1500 but it is still above all of the moving averages, and all of the short and long-term trend lines. This may be how a top is eventually formed, but markets don't usually fall precipitously from highs like this without a major news event. Tops take a little time as we usually see a small pullback, another round of buying with either a new high or a failed test of the prior high, then may a lower higher, etc...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We could get a pullback and there is a lot of room down below, but there is also a lot of support below to catch any decline.
The dollar continues its bearish action and the large and small head and shoulders patterns are flirting with the neckline again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In 2012, in the left shoulder of the large H&S, there was a smaller H&S that resolved itself to the upside, which is less common, so the key here will be that neckline. If it breaks down, look out. Stocks won't necessarily go up but things like gold, silver, oil, food prices, etc., almost certainly will.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 43% bulls, 46% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.93 to 1. The 100-point decline in the Dow the last two days triggered enough bearishness to give the system to give a new buy signal, which means the survey system will move to a 100% S fund allocation for next week.
This morning we get the January jobs report and the estimates are still looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs and a 7.7% unemployment rate.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The indices were mixed yesterday with the Dow pulling back another 50-points while the Nasdaq was flat and small caps saw decent gains.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Thursday wrapped up a great month with the best gains for the month of January since 1997.
sentimenTrader.com says: The S&P 500 rose more than 5% in January, to close at a new 12-month high. Of the 14 other times that has occurred since 1928, 12 of them gained over the next six months, averaging +7.7%. Since 1950, all 9 instances rose over the next six months, averaging +11.0%.
The S&P 500 dipped back below 1500 but it is still above all of the moving averages, and all of the short and long-term trend lines. This may be how a top is eventually formed, but markets don't usually fall precipitously from highs like this without a major news event. Tops take a little time as we usually see a small pullback, another round of buying with either a new high or a failed test of the prior high, then may a lower higher, etc...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We could get a pullback and there is a lot of room down below, but there is also a lot of support below to catch any decline.
The dollar continues its bearish action and the large and small head and shoulders patterns are flirting with the neckline again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In 2012, in the left shoulder of the large H&S, there was a smaller H&S that resolved itself to the upside, which is less common, so the key here will be that neckline. If it breaks down, look out. Stocks won't necessarily go up but things like gold, silver, oil, food prices, etc., almost certainly will.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 43% bulls, 46% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.93 to 1. The 100-point decline in the Dow the last two days triggered enough bearishness to give the system to give a new buy signal, which means the survey system will move to a 100% S fund allocation for next week.
This morning we get the January jobs report and the estimates are still looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs and a 7.7% unemployment rate.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
