6/01/12
Some wild moves on Wall Street yesterday as deep early losses turned into solid gains by the afternoon, but a late sell-off just before the close took the indices back into negative territory. Perhaps this morning's jobs report had something to do with the late nerves yesterday.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.12%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.27%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the final returns for May...
The S&P 500 dropped well below the 200-day EMA in early trading, but it had moved back above it before that late selling. It closed a few points below it, and that is always a concern.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq was able to close above it after an intraday break.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 32% bulls, 61% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.52 to 1. That is a buy signal which means the system will remain 100% S fund for next week.
Here is another look at one smart money indicator (the InsiderScore.com Buy/Sell Ratio) vs. a dumb money indicator (the AAII Survey).
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
They are being compared not by number since these are different indicators, but on extreme readings. The InsiderScore is at an extreme where the smart money is buying, while the AAII dumb money is near a bearish extreme.
When the two are near opposite extremes as they are now, the downside tends to be limited and more often we get some kind of bounce.
The May report comes out this morning (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 150,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 8.1%. Investors emotional levels are high so any surprise, positive or negative, could be a market mover.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
