Although it was a mixed day, it was a typical pre-holiday like trading day on Thursday - a slightly positive bias on below average volume. The Dow gained 20-points, the S&P 500 picked up 1, the Nasdaq was down 1, the I-fund led the way, and small caps dropped. Bonds were also down again.
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We get the jobs report this morning (Thursday) and that could trigger some volatility, particularly since a lot of traders will have the day off and volume should be light. The market does close at 1 PM ET on Thursday but that shouldn't affect your TSP transactions.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was up slightly during Wednesday's snoozer. There may be a rising wedge here to consider but what has my antennae up is whether we get a post-holiday reversal of the pre-holiday action. Earnings season will kick off soon and earnings will have to justify the recent rally. Otherwise, any disappointments and we could see selling. There's even a chance of a "sell the news" reaction, even if it is positive, since the market rallied strong into earnings season.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 was off about a half of a percent on Wednesday so Tuesday's reversal day high could be a stubborn resistance area. Stocks are in an uptrend so this may be going against the grain, but remember the double bottom near 1080? When it held in May it ignited quite a rally. Well, here it is at a possible double top. It may not be a steep sell-off, but there tends to be a little push back from double top - or at least there used to be.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rising trading channel broke earlier this year on the weekly chart of the Russell 2000. That old support support line has been acting as resistance since, but of course it is rising resistance so this new trend is also up. There is a reversal bar on the current weekly bar, and that may be an issue in the coming weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here's another look at the S&P's historical performance surrounding the 4th of July. Today (Thursday) is day # -1, which has a nice positive bias.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were down again on Wednesday and the IEF is now testing an important rising support line. We may have already seen a lower high, so the question is whether or not we see a lower low, which will create a longer-term downtrend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market closes at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday but that won't affect TSP transactions - but if could impact any ETF trades.
Per tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, July 4th in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (July 4th) will be processed Monday night (July 7th), at Monday's closing share prices."
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great holiday weekend. Happy Birthday America!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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