JimmyJoe's Account Talk

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So we're back where we were yesterday. All the hand wringing, all the moves made... For naught. You know... The market used to kick me around and stuff like yesterday's losses would have made me jump ship, just so I could cry in my beer on an up day like today. I don't think the market is as mean as it used to be. It's just a solid rising money machine. People may hate it, but I'm loving it. In years past it would have remained down for a week just to suck a ton of folks down with it, and get people to bail. Then it would pop up, who knew when, to give those staying in a nice boost. I almost dabbled in the dark side yesterday and played with the notion of getting out but I looked for some positive signs last night about 3am and saw the futures up. And why would I want to get out anyway, in November, December when money flies everywhere. You know there is one man among all these posters that knows how to make the market work for him. I decided about this time last year that I was going to learn a thing or two from him and I did. Yes.. Time in the market is better than timing the market.
 
JimmyJoe said:
So we're back where we were yesterday. All the hand wringing, all the moves made... For naught. You know... The market used to kick me around and stuff like yesterday's losses would have made me jump ship, just so I could cry in my beer on an up day like today. I don't think the market is as mean as it used to be. It's just a solid rising money machine. People may hate it, but I'm loving it. In years past it would have remained down for a week just to suck a ton of folks down with it, and get people to bail. Then it would pop up, who knew when, to give those staying in a nice boost. I almost dabbled in the dark side yesterday and played with the notion of getting out but I looked for some positive signs last night about 3am and saw the futures up. And why would I want to get out anyway, in November, December when money flies everywhere. You know there is one man among all these posters that knows how to make the market work for him. I decided about this time last year that I was going to learn a thing or two from him and I did. Yes.. Time in the market is better than timing the market.
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Jimmy, glad to see your are coming into your own style :)
 
JimmyJoe said:
Lookin at the futures. Well...
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Yeah... That's why I left it ambiguous. Bloomburg's futures are down. They were way up an hour ago. Still, I think we're going up on this elevator tomorrow, in not, then for the week. Then for the next two months.
 
Maybe I'm wrong about the S fund rising better than the other funds but I'm sticking with it 40%. I know that about 3 years ago Birch made a call that the S fund would be hammered for a week, and he was right on that call. My ears perk up when he makes these rare calls about the S fund losing ground. I think he's making the same call now. I bet though, it all averages out, that all three equity funds earn the same percent, about 5% to 7% more, from now to the end of the year. C35,S40,I25.
 
And I thought that SPX 1800 would be our mid December top. Revisions now are 1900 end of year I believe. I'm going to take even more risks. Those that I have been taking are not getting me where I want to go. I need to take risks that have been to me, boring, dull. Like investing in LNG. That is a well thought out, bird in hand, risk. That type of risk is not a risk at all. It's more a well designed play. Another well designed play that will offer a 5% to 7% increase at the end of the year is staying in the game. Staying in this market will make an investor money. It's been said that life is full of risks, or life is simply steps toward goals with an acceptable number of risks. Some people learn earlier than others that we don't take enough risks. Ive learned lately that Taking risks becomes more a free way of living leading to a life of prosperity. Risks can evolve into a certain prosperity, so much so that my thoughts are not about being too careful but becoming more healthy and wealthy. Thinking in terms of risks can make me too careful. Making money in the market is not risky. After becoming accustomed to investing, I've gained much more than I've lost. Realizing this, I can enjoy the means whereby I've gotten my gains. I enjoy my life and my gains in the market.
 
I bought my initial position in Cheniere Energy (LNG) back in 12/2011 at $8.30 and continued to DCA it into the high teens - today I have a +$49K profit and am waiting for a take out bid by one of the major oil companies. I wouldn't be surprised to see a stock split at some point. This sweet thing has a long way to run yet especially with the bulls in charge. Snort.
 
"In the near term, the SPX will plateau at 1800 tomorrow or maybe Tuesday." Quoted from my post on Sunday.
 
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Shaking some leaves off the trees. I'm staying in. I think I'll lay here and think how much money November will bring me.
 
Now that wasn't so bad, today's market, now was it? Still a lot of work ahead in many areas. It's crunch time. With all the news about the Fed workers not going to get a defined pension plan in the future (who knew? Well we all did.) and perhaps social security unavailable till 65, people must look at diving in where money is available, and that is in the market. People are going to have to get tough about their money. Uncle Sam is pulling away from the harbor leaving most of us to look out for ourselves. It's a rocky road for most but if you can realize that you haven't got much to lose in the present, if you've got food, a roof over your head, and you're healthy, then you've got a lot. Any extra, put into stocks. Did people notice that the bitcoin is getting looked at hard by the Feds? That party is over. There ain't no easy way out. Believe that the market will work for you because it's just about the only thing left, except for the land, home you own. The market still has legs to run, and companies want your investments. If they need you then you are holding the aces.
 
Politicos are wanting to end the defined FERS portion of our retirement, they wouldn't let us off at the tsp station if our only hope for our 401k was diving. They know that stocks will keep climbing and they know this because they know QE will continue. That's what my tin foil hat is telling me.
 
For this month, November, I'm doing ok. "Flat" is not "down". When all of us look at the numbers on the front page of our Tsptalk page we see that we're ok presently, and could take another day or two of getting hammered as long as we remain in position for the SPX to reach 1800. The C fund is just fine, and the markets will seek SPX 1800 and the Dow and the Nasdaq will follow accordingly. As Amoeba said, there may be a bump up next week, though I say, if not tomorrow then Friday a pop is definite. Fridays are usually good after a three or four day lull. SPX 1800 is within our grasp very soon.
 
Sure I waited until now to post this. But it sure is looking good.
Dow 16000 right now. This time it's for real. It's like the Dow has come to the surface and sees blue skies. Standing on the floor of the pool with its head well above the surface, it's loving the blue skies. What's that over there? Why its S&P popping up, and wait a minute, isn't that the Nasdaq coming through? Why it is. And the babes sitting in their chaise lounges, why they are showing some interest in what I'm showing interest in, and we're all so happy. You can call these babes our individual stocks, or they're babes nonetheless. Tis delightful and all will get along swimmingly. Whoa.. What a dream. Nice that it's real.:)
 
Seasonally, this upcoming Thanksgiving week, to include tomorrow, is all green. I think I'll earn 3.5% from this month's stocks. Add to that the 5% we earn in December, and there you have it. A 33% gain total, for the year. It pays to stay in to win. After decades of playing it safe with the market, I've finally learned to trust my standing with equities. It took that long and a loss of a third of my principal during these two years of my retirement to finally give in to the old saying, you have got to be in it to win it. I literally had nothing to lose. Timing the market was destroying my base. I just put all my chips in and let the dice roll. I know that many say you have to stay in the G fund when you retire, and that could be true, but where is the fun in that? More importantly where are the gains in the G fund? There is nothing like laying it out there and making money from money, and one's hard determination to stay in a challenging place like the stock market. I think being a member of Fers will make you a smooth operator and strong person. Is it a stretch being on your toes while at the same time being a govt worker? I don't know but I've always been one to play it just outside the box. I went from making maps on paper to a GIS man. Now thats a stretch. I'll use my personality to easily make it through to a productive end, with substantial earnings, with this stock market. I don't have much principal but I'll make it work for me and next year, from the knowledge I've gained this year, I'll make more than I take, by a long shot. And btw, 2014 will be another banner year in the stock market so everybody, into the pool!
 
Corporate profits are at all time highs and corporate balance sheets in the best shape in a generation. And yet there remains fears of this market and that's very positive from my contrarian view point. Fears are reasons to embrace stocks, not run from them. So the longer people stay away from stocks the higher the Dow will roll. In January I said the Dow would reach 17,000 and the SPX would penetrate 1,700 - that now leaves six weeks for Ferdinand to push the remaining 1,000 points. Have you noticed there are more share buybacks happening - big money is working.
 
Birchtree said:
Have you noticed there are more share buybacks happening - big money is working.
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This concerns me....If a company wants to buy back their own shares, Let's say at 100, word hits the street, they're buying at 105.....5% for those timing the stock. Why wouldn't a company buy back with no fan fare, pieces at a time while applying some capital to expansion and increasing revenue generation? If a company, is not expecting to raise the revenue, and pay higher dividends to their shareholders, I would be critical of the move. Consolidation during this peak borrowing time might be the answer, but it is still a little worrisome.
 
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