- Reaction score
- 503
We’re approaching the halfway point of January, making it a good time to step back and examine the trends emerging from the TSP Talk AutoTracker.
Overall Allocation
If we average the allocation of 673 members who I consider active AutoTracker participants, we get an average allocation of:
G: 32.4% | F: 1.9% | C: 24.7% | S: 24.0% | I: 12.1%
The missing 5% is jumbled in Lifecycle funds. But the overall picture is an investment group who holds over 60% of their TSPs in stock funds. However, these are averages, and the 32% G-fund represents a few true allocations. Only 64, or 0.1%, of these members hold G-fund allocation between 20% and 49%. The average mostly comes from the balance between the bulls and bears (fully invested vs underinvested). So far in January the market has rewarded the bulls.
Fund Transfers in January:
So far in January, 138 non-premium members have made at least one IFT. Rather than averaging their current allocations, it’s more informative to measure how their positioning has changed since December 31. Below is the average percentage point (pp) change from year-end to each member’s most recent allocation:
G: +16.8 pp | F: +1.2 pp | C: −3.7 pp | S: −9.1 pp | I: −2.1 pp
On average, an AutoTracker member who has made an IFT in January has increased their G-fund allocation by 16.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, the average S-fund allocation has dropped 9.1 percentage points among these 138 members. Just looking at today's market action, it seems the group has been caught leaning the wrong way.
Again, these averages are not a clean representation, so we'll add extra context: Of the 138 members, 53 have increased their G-fund exposure by some degree since the end of December. In contrast, 21 of these members have decreased their G-fund exposure by some degree since the end of December, increasing their stock exposure.
The remaining 64 have exchanged stock funds without increasing or decreasing their overall stock exposure. The overall trend among these members has been to cut their C-fund holdings in favor for S and I-fund shares.
Stay up to date with changes among AutoTracker members with a subscription to the Last Look Report.
Overall Allocation
If we average the allocation of 673 members who I consider active AutoTracker participants, we get an average allocation of:
G: 32.4% | F: 1.9% | C: 24.7% | S: 24.0% | I: 12.1%
The missing 5% is jumbled in Lifecycle funds. But the overall picture is an investment group who holds over 60% of their TSPs in stock funds. However, these are averages, and the 32% G-fund represents a few true allocations. Only 64, or 0.1%, of these members hold G-fund allocation between 20% and 49%. The average mostly comes from the balance between the bulls and bears (fully invested vs underinvested). So far in January the market has rewarded the bulls.
Fund Transfers in January:
So far in January, 138 non-premium members have made at least one IFT. Rather than averaging their current allocations, it’s more informative to measure how their positioning has changed since December 31. Below is the average percentage point (pp) change from year-end to each member’s most recent allocation:
G: +16.8 pp | F: +1.2 pp | C: −3.7 pp | S: −9.1 pp | I: −2.1 pp
On average, an AutoTracker member who has made an IFT in January has increased their G-fund allocation by 16.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, the average S-fund allocation has dropped 9.1 percentage points among these 138 members. Just looking at today's market action, it seems the group has been caught leaning the wrong way.
Again, these averages are not a clean representation, so we'll add extra context: Of the 138 members, 53 have increased their G-fund exposure by some degree since the end of December. In contrast, 21 of these members have decreased their G-fund exposure by some degree since the end of December, increasing their stock exposure.
The remaining 64 have exchanged stock funds without increasing or decreasing their overall stock exposure. The overall trend among these members has been to cut their C-fund holdings in favor for S and I-fund shares.
Takeaway
The broader AutoTracker group remains mostly invested in stocks, but the members who have actively made IFTs in the first half of January have, on average, moved defensively. While the market has rewarded those who stayed fully invested, a meaningful portion of active participants has rotated toward safety or repositioned within equities—suggesting growing uncertainty beneath the surface, even as prices push higher.Stay up to date with changes among AutoTracker members with a subscription to the Last Look Report.
