James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

A new year, and new data- so it’s time to reassess where I am. I liked what I read about the “new” I fund being very different from the old I fund- enough that I decided I’m going to park more over in the new I.

Moving to:

C= 30%
S= 40%
I = 30%

Effective close of business tomorrow. I’m thinking , after reading more about the real reason we just took Venezuela out- I’m thinking that the world is where I am going to want to be. Hedge my bets against a U.S. crash by boosting the growing economies. Good luck.

(Seeing some wild stories about the dollar, and Muduro’s deal to sell to the Chinese in Yuan instead of dollars makes me think the dollar has much, much further to fall).

 

[James48843]

Update- with that tariff ruling, the pressure of “how will markets react?” Seems relieved.

So I’m going to venture more towards the I fund, while still keeping fully invested across all three stock funds. Moving to 25% C, 25% S, and a hefty 50% in the I fund, effective on Monday. That’s an increase from 32% currently to 50%. I’m following the trend. Good luck.

(Note- I look on the auto tracker for the last two weeks- the majority of people who have earned over 9% so far this year are almost all moving to “G” rather than to I, which is where the majority of folks seem to be adding. Maybe I’m too early. Oh well, here we go!)

 

[Whipsaw]

There is some potential unpleasantness in the cards, which may be driving the G migration.

 

[James48843]

Getting ready for the speech.

 

[WorkFE]

Getting ready for the speech.



View attachment 71758

The only thing I seen was "Hydrate. Pace yourself. It's a long speech".
Me and George Stagg are prepared.
What is the over/under on "Greatest Ever"?

 

[nasa1974]

Getting ready for the speech.



View attachment 71758

I'm planning on playing trivia with my younger daughter and her family. Going out to grab a bite, have a drink and a good time. I'll catch the highlights or lowlights later.

 

[JTH]

Getting ready for the speech.

I'll have to catch the cliff notes, I hope the Dems don't wear some stupid button or pink hats, the best thing they can do for their dignity is to not attend.

 

[WorkFE]

I hope the Dems don't wear some stupid button or pink hats,

Like tearing up the speech on National TV like a 3rd grader.

 

[weatherweenie]

Like tearing up the speech on National TV like a 3rd grader.

Or screaming nonsense like Lauren Boebert and MTG

 

[tsptalk]

What are the odds on "bigly?"

 

[JTH]

Getting ready for the speech.

IAW with GROK, I count about 7

• historic (once, in the murder rate decline)
• rigged (once, "everything was stolen and rigged")
• incredible (once, "incredible and exceptional nation")
• america first (once, "I put America first")
• beautiful (twice, like "beautiful but very, very dangerous wild West")
• worst (once, "worst inflation")

Minor observation: He did not use the word Constitution once....

 

[James48843]

Ok, well that string of Hindenburg Omens has got me real nervous, and the war thing isn’t looking good. I’m moving 40% of my funds today into “G” for safety- and reducing CSI to 20% each. The fall this week isn’t over, I’m afraid. Nor is the war.

Moving for safety.

 

[James48843]

It was just last week Thursday when I moved my first move of the month to a position of 40% G fund. I was seeing pretty nasty futures as the war is turning poorly. The oil stoppage is major.

Tonight I’m seeing more evidence of a huge collapse about to happen as a result of the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

Tonight Stock future are down a thousand-
Oil price has jumped to $114, and major brokerages are saying oil will be $150 shortly- within days, not months, and probably not weeks. Anything above $100 slows the economy hard, and going above $125 is going to do major economic damage.

Hindenburg Omen fluttered last week- like the 6th time. That’s a signal to me historically to watch out for trouble.

We’ve been climbing for several years- and now this is going to be a punch in the gut bad economically.

So I moved more to “G “ tonight, effective at the close tomorrow. I hope I don’t get slaughtered during the day tomorrow.

Moving to:

80% =G fund
02%. = F Fund (why not?)
08% =C Fund
08%. = S Fund
02 %. = I. Fund

By safeguarding 80 into the G, I hope to preserve capital. I don’t see anything good until the war ends, which won’t be soon, I’m afraid. This second move locks me into mostly G for the month.

Good luck.

 

[James48843]

I will remark that this market is stronger than I was thinking it was going to be. The bulls coming out wasn’t what I was expecting today.

I still think we will drift a bit lower than here- but I’m surprised at the underlying strength shown today.

 

[TommyIV]

I still think we will drift a bit lower than here- but I’m surprised at the underlying strength shown today.

The AutoTracker IFT activity suggests many members share that sentiment. Of the 15 IFTs made today, 10 moved into the G-fund, implying some investors viewed the rally as a bounce within a broader downtrend and opted to lock in what they could after last week’s losses.

 

[JTH]

The AutoTracker IFT activity suggests many members share that sentiment. Of the 15 IFTs made today, 10 moved into the G-fund, implying some investors viewed the rally as a bounce within a broader downtrend and opted to lock in what they could after last week’s losses.

Feel like the panic-fear peaked, but prices haven't caught up just yet. We still haven't hit the peak energy bottleneck, then the aftereffects of mutually-assured-inflation. By the time all this gets priced in over the next few months, it sure looks ripe for some pain.