James48843 Account Talk

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bmneveu said:
Beautiful boat. How'd she do?
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Very good. We got into some pretty serious wind- gusts to 30 kts., but she was solid and steady even in that. She is also much faster than I was expecting. We clipped along at 8.5 knots in a 15 knot breeze. She takes 6 foot seas very well.

It was a long trip- 15 hours, but it was a wonderful adventure. I haven’t ever skippered a boat this big before- I’ve just been along for the ride a few times in similar boats- but it’s much like I expected. I’m grinning.

Sometimes you just gotta do it.


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PessOptimist said:
Tell us about the boat. Nosy people want to know. Also where were you sailing? Erie?

PO
Click to expand...

It’s a 1986 Kirie Elite- also known as a Feeling. French built, good solid design. It’s all original, has seen better days, but really just needs love and attention. The varnish is a bit worn off the woodwork, but it sails fast!

Believe it or not, I bought it on EBay, as a “Boat Angel” boat. I wasn’t really expecting to win, but when I saw the price, my ebay finger just kind of clicked on it, and, well, now I own her.

I now live about 15 miles east of Michigan’s Mackinac Bridge. I live right next to the Marina- I can see my boat from my bedroom window. I really plan on just putzing around within about 50 miles of here- the trip here is likely the longest voyage I plan.

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Hmmmm..

I'm getting a little "ancy." We're at the top again, and for some reason, I'm thinking this is going to be the last upswing for a little while. I'm not bailing out yet, but I'm watching very closely, and will be more sensitive and attentive than normal for the next week or two. A sudden fall and I will bail out and take a breather.

I don't really know what is driving the markets right now. there is a lot of money that has flowed in, but it would be unusually for the climb to keep going .

good luck.

Jim
 
She is a beauty James, and absolute beauty!!!

Talking about the boat, not the TSP allocation comment :-)
 
Truth

The equity market seems very frothy, and the bond market is declining. Not a great time...
 
Hey papa-Bear... that is a beautiful vehicle for flying on the H2O, thx for providing some nice Pix! I'm interested.... not sailed, though living in Pacific-NW Puget-Sound was thinking of buying such a thing for perhaps a half-year sail up our inland-passages (most of the way) to Alaska & back, clamming, crabbing, fishing & hanging out on the way. Hope you enjoy wonderful times & great health w/it!
 
Ok- I’m getting nervous again. Here are some things I am seeing. Just anecdotal at this point, but signs of stress none-the-less.

1. Auto sales- down. Mostly due to the chip shortage- not demand. Demand for cars and trucks are still mostly there- but with fewer sales because of the impact of the chip shortage.

2. Real estate topping out. My wife works in real estate- and the last two weeks, prices had suddenly stopped rising. For the last six months houses were selling like hot cakes, with offers immediately, and many offers over asking price. That’s changing. Now houses are still selling, but not as quickly, and the offers are now below the asking prices. So it’s come much more into balance than it was two or three months ago. Interest rates have pretty much bottomed out, and in some cases, are up a quarter percent from a month ago.

3. Price of oil seems to have finally reached a point where supply/demand is about in balance, but they are still not having settled OPEC plus agreement on price and volume. That’s playing havoc on oil prices. Instability- up and down, and more possible than it has been in some time.


Those three factors make me nervous right now, thinking a summer pullback could be rearing it’s ugly head any day now. Prices for stocks are at very high levels compared to historic ratios. I’m fully invested, but nervous.

Still not yet selling my shares, but I’m very, very closely watching the next week or two, and trying to decide whether it’s time to jump put and rest a while. My year to date is over 16%. I should take the gain and wait for a better opportunity to buy back in.

Anyway- that’s what is on my mind right now. I’m not jumping out yet, but I’m feeling closer to that right now.

Good luck.



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“UNCLE”.

I’m moving to safety.

95% = “G”
05%= “F”.

This morning’s lower open pushed me over the edge. I’m taking a breather.

Good luck!


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Feeling ripples that don’t belong. I’m 95% G, 5% F, and my stomach is churning right here. I’m out for a reason. I’m rarely out long. Too high risk right now for me. I’m expecting a drop.


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Anyone else get the feeling that James knows more than he lets on?

I wouldn't be surprised if he had lunch with Janet Yellen last week. :D
 
Was almost going to follow suit...you can't go wrong jumping back in when it puts you several percent above the indices, namely the top one (C should be approx 14% YTD if things close near current levels).
Your AutoTracker says 15.48 YTD, you could be in the top 10 by COB. FYI though I don't see your name on the 2021 Tracker chart???

James48843 said:
Oh what the heck. That “C” fund tail down below tells me to take a chance.

Moving all in to “C” fund today. Good luck!


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Click to expand...
 
I'm camping 50% in G/F. That is very conservative for me. Only in times like 2001/2003 and 2008 have I held more G/F. I'm not a swinger:eek:

I'm not thinking this is 2007/2008/2009 again, but I am thinking folks are/will adjust to higher taxes, more regulations, and less energy. I don't think those factors drive my retirement fund in the direction I want. However, if the 'market' overcorrects by 20%+ or so I will have that nice fat 50% camping G/F to reinvest near the bottom. I should limit losses to a mere 10% or less with this allocation.

I'm not a swinger, but this little social gathering seemed a bit off and the excitement a bit frothy...

I mean when you can tip the :banana: with bitcoin I think things have gone too far:nuts:
 
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