James48843 Account Talk

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Once again today right around noon I was considering jumping back into stocks- the bounce yesterday kind of caught me off guard and for a moment I was thinking we might have just hit the 50 moving averages, and we were going to turn things around.

But my experience gut said to wait- this one is moving in slow motion, and has a lot more downside potential that many people aren’t seeing. We’re over-valued, and we’re running up higher on all that Federal Reserve and Treasury liquidity- which is about to vanish. And when it does, markets will realize it has nowhere to go but down.

Covid is leaving a huge mark on the economy, and will continue to- so it may be a year or two until things are solidify ready to move higher again.

I’m going to take a deep breath, and watch. And stay out in my 70%G, 15%F, and then 5 each in C,S,and I.

This may be a while before it is time to jump back in to higher stock holdings.
 
Ok- I’m easing out a tiny bit, AND I am reallocating what I have at risk.

Moving as follows:

5% = G.

5%= F

(To me, that’s taking the last months profits off the table and keeping it).

25% = C

45%= S

20%= I

Let me explain- I have been only a little in “I” for the last couple of months. But I am feeling now that “I” (which is heavily in Japan) has suffered enough this year, and is about to take a little upside. I think it is less risky today for “I” than it was earlier this year, and so I’m increasing my “I” exposure a bit.

Cross my fingers this is a good idea. We’ll find out soon enough.
M


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Sitting now at :

C fund 10%
S fund 80%
I. Fund 10%

And I’m looking at the “$EMW” as the S fund tracking charts.

It’s not been since THE CRASH of ‘87 that we’ve had a single month with this much movement upwards - and back then, we didn’t have an S fund, we only had the C fund.

So I’m re-adjusting my self-identified stop-loss markers here. I’m ok with going lower about another 2% without pulling the trigger, but I am marking this territory as some pretty lofty ground, considering the overall economy, the Dec 11 government shutdown possibility, the Lack of another Covid stimulus package, and the refusal of 45 to concede and make plans to leave. Too much uncertainty in the next few weeks- so I’m going to be careful and be on heightened alert in case I need to bail.

Have a great day!


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This market upswing is definitely overstretched.

I'm taking a break. Up over 3% this month and we're only a few days into it. The P&F chart is screaming at me that it is rime for a rest.

so I'm moving today- to :

60% = G
35% = F
5% = S

and hanging on looking for a pause to jump back in.
 
I’m just floored that- as much as the market has risen over especially the last month, that even with that- we can’t seem to get a capitulation longer than a day.

How much cash did they inject into the money supply? Are they telling us the truth? Or maybe the North Koreans slipped another freighter full of $100 counterfeit currency in, and people are buying stocks everywhere. Who knows?

Gnashing my teeth over here thinking it’s GOTTA break down a good 5% any time now.


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I’m sniffing something in the air here. Could it be that we’ve finally reached the stretched end of the upswing that’s been moving since November 3rd?

Today’s peak and decent are unlike the last couple of mini-retrenchment. And it’s the last day before a government shutdown ( and no deal yet as of 3 pm).

And the last day before the end of this Congress, with a Covid reined deal on the table with a poison pill in the middle of it.

I fear a big down could of days next week if they don’t do a deal in the next couple of hours.

I am in stocks, but I should have bailed out today. Now I have to hold on until see what Monday brings.


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I think that little spike at the end of the day was people getting in anticpating a deal over the weekend. If Mitch says it will happen, I think it will.
 
Thank you for the "welcome back," it's good to see you and the rest of my friends again! And yes, I agree that the markets are going to be challenging for the next while. It's great to have smart people like you to talk to as we go through it!
 
My neck just itched a little bit. Not a lot, just a little bit.

So I’m bailing out - moving to 90% G, and just 10% each in C and S.

Let’s see what’s happening- I’m up 6.39% for the year and it’s only the 21st. Time for a pause?
 
flalaw97 said:
I think that little spike at the end of the day was people getting in anticpating a deal over the weekend. If Mitch says it will happen, I think it will.
Click to expand...

Recall these famous last words; over a month ago; didn't happen then....deal now more likely with supermajority....but it still isn't soup yet; remember there are moderate Democrats, filibuster, other business for Congress to attend to (confirmations; eye word/distraction); which could extend this debate for weeks notwithstanding the urgency.
 
amoeba said:
Recall these famous last words; over a month ago; didn't happen then....deal now more likely with supermajority....but it still isn't soup yet; remember there are moderate Democrats, filibuster, other business for Congress to attend to (confirmations; eye word/distraction); which could extend this debate for weeks notwithstanding the urgency.
Click to expand...

Don't know how true it is, but heard earlier today that stimulus may not happen until sometime in March for the reasons you have stated. ;damnit That can't be good for the market...
 
ravensfan said:
Don't know how true it is, but heard earlier today that stimulus may not happen until sometime in March for the reasons you have stated. ;damnit That can't be good for the market...
Click to expand...

The market can deal with it but not for the folks that REALLY need it.
 
Ok- what I am seeing now:

The “S” fund is quite extended for this upward mini cycle. It MAY have one more day, I’d say about a quarter or a half point higher tomorrow. It may go as high as a full percent, but then I think it will end the day at a quarter to a half higher.

I think then the “C” fund will play catch-up for TWO days, and will top out on Monday.

Then I am thinking a nice 2-4% pullback is probably due. We’ve run this dog to exhaustion, and it’s got to.be time for a breather.

But then again- what do I know. None of this makes normal sense.


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My jaw is just dropping, seeing these greater-than-1%- Up days, day after day after day.

This ISN’T normal.

This ISN’T responsible.

There WILL be a reckoning at some point in time.

In all my years (and I’ve been watching markets since before the crash of 1987) I don’t think I’ve ever seen a market quite as energetically upward without pause, as what we have had since the November 3rd election.

America likes a winner, and America likes stability, and America likes predictability.

We don’t yet have an answer on point #1; and we certainly don’t have widespread stability on point #2; and there is NO predictability as to what the market is going to look like- what the economy is going to look like, in three months. Or six months.

So why is everybody buying right now? Is this just a huge bubble building up?

(((Sigh)))

I’m enjoying the gains, but I’m starting to sweat bullets that someday soon, the brakes are going to get pressed, just when we least expect it.

I’m still in.

(We are 57 seconds into this ride, I think)

https://youtu.be/oAJLKDMihnU


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