- Reaction score
- 658
Thanks Tom. You beat me too it. I had some stuff to do this morning and was going to post the link this afternoon. I had to go back and read it. That was a fun thread. Some old-time members in that thread.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!James48843 Account Talk
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Well, I’m still seeing a little lower expected next week. Here is the P&F chart for both the S&P 500 and the S fund. (Dwcpf). I’m thinking another 50 points down (S) to 100 points down (C) on both before we get a cycle up.
Even then I’m not sure it will rebound much.Attachments
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Well bummer.
The chart is looking nice for a quick uptick- but I just tried the “less that 1% 3rd move” and it no longer works. I will have to wait until June 1 and reassess.
Oh well- it’s been a while since I used it, but it clearly doesn’t function like it used to.
I sure wish they let us have that third move. Even if it was just an extra one per quarter- I’d pay an extra $100 to be able to do that. (Sigh)
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Still not sure what the market is going to do- but it’s a new month, and two fresh moves I can make.
Exercising one today:
Jumping in with :
C= 35%
S=. 35%
I = 30%.
As of the end of the day today. That I is looking a little better to me, because the rest of the world seems to be taking new opportunities to build trade with OTHER nations instead of the USA.
Meaning the rest of the world I think is more stable than the USA right now.
Good luck.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
“Last Month’s Best Fund”.
I think I’m going to start tracking that again. I was busy and unable to keep it current a few years ago- but I think now is a good time to throw that back into my strategy considerations.
Nobody else is tracking that right now, correct? I think it’s about to be more accurate.
- Reaction score
- 1,778
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Interesting- now it appears the administration is trying to hide bad forecasts it does not like:
Trump officials delayed farm trade report over deficit forecast
Source: Politico
06/04/2025 05:55 AM EDT
Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter. The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances.
The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit. The published report, released Monday but dated May 29, includes numbers that are unchanged from how they would’ve read in the unredacted report, said the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal decision-making.
Policymakers, farm groups and commodities traders rely on the closely watched report, which the Agriculture Department issues quarterly, for its analysis of imports and exports of major farm commodities including cotton and livestock. The highly unusual rollout could raise questions about potential political meddling with government reports that have traditionally been trusted for decades.
“Objectivity is really key here and the public depends on it,” said Joe Glauber, a former USDA chief economist. “To lose that trust would be terrible.” A USDA spokesperson blamed the delay on an internal review.
Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/...-farm-product-trade-deficit-forecast-00382549
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Ok- I’m operating a “Last Month Best Fund” account now on the auto tracker. It will use the LAST day of the month to decide, with any new IFT being the following trading day.
Last month (June) the best fund was “S”, so the account remains in “S” for another month.
LMBFund = “S fund”
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Getting concerned again that we’ve been going higher for a while- so I’m moving half to the G fund, and watching closely. It’s time for a rest.
As on COB Monday, I will move to:
G= 50%
C = 20%
S=. 20%
I =. 10%
Good luck.Last edited:
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
I’m continuously surprised at how resilient this market is.
Can’t fight the flow. I’m moving all back into stocks again.
COB TOMORROW i will go to:
C= 30%
S = 50%
I = 20%
Good luck.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
For some reason, I’m feeling very uncomfortable suddenly.
Like the world is going to wake up to what the tariffs are going to do to the world economy- and everything is about to crash.
And I’m fully invested.
It’s not a good feeling.
Doh!
Anybody else feeling unusual?Jsthere4211
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 13
I am with you . Some reckoning will happen no doubt. But to what extent? Only if I knew!
- Reaction score
- 658
Well, my 8 stocks haven't been doing great lately.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Well, this has been a good month for me. I’m really, really thinking hard of moving to G today, with maybe just a little bit of “F” fo flavor it a bit. What do you think? Are we at a point that is over extended, and ready to retrench for a short while? It’s been a long time since we’ve had any kind of a weakness.is today time right day to move to safer ground?
I’m thinking moving maybe half today . How about you?
- Reaction score
- 658
Why not protect your good month. Tuesday starts 2 new IFT's.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 206
We had weakness in April.
Kinda a serious dumper in 2022.
On the other hand, September and October are generally no bueno so I hear you. I'm staying in (about 75% in) because things feelz pretty good. I don't have the 2007 heebie jeebies. I think any top-out will be slow, not a collapse - and, the Santa period is coming soon.
With the FED not factoring deflation (they ignore fuel costs and groceries
) our stats will look like inflation. I don't know why folks are whining about normal interest rates, but the market seems to move positively when they think the FED will drop rates. I don't think we will get a meaningful drop - I mean, why? Toto, we aren't in 2008 anymore.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 628
Except after they fired the stats people- I don’t know if the stats are accurate anymore. (Sigh). That makes it that much harder to decide what to risk vs reward.
Decisions , decisions. Always hard to decide.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 206
For whatever reason, the variance in the BLS stats became excessive.
I kinda doubt it was TDS, but that variance was consistently high and awful for at least half a decade. It became a running joke and there really isn't an excuse for it. You could not count on the stats. Something and/or someone had to change. The eyes of the world are on it and I kinda doubt the Trumpster wants bad data. You really can't do anything based on bad data. We shall see.
Personally, I wouldn't 'swing' to all G. Just move an amount that will allow you to sleep well. September and October are not known to be good months - although I think they will be this year, but I am not you. If you think it will be big enough for a -10% year then you are talking about a 30% decline from here. If you are 50% in G/F your decline from now will be around 12% - 15%. And, you still can use IFTs and reduce that loss even more (unless it dumps 30% in a couple of days). If the market rises you will gain a decent chunk.Similar threads
