It's Deja Vu All Over Again

Remember the kind of action we saw last Spring and Summer? Where the market would dive hard quickly and then come back even faster? You know, the kind of activity where the SS triggers a sell and then 5 or 6% later on the way back up triggers a buy?

It's Deja Vu all over again. Is this what we can expect this summer too? Sentiment hasn't changed a whole lot from last year. Yeah, bullishness was starting to get a bit overdone, but when the market tanked (like last week) the bears come out of the woodwork and we go right back up again. Just like last year.

The Seven Sentinels should continue to do a great job of picking out the tops, but the bottoms are another story. It's not the system's fault though. It's simply not designed for short term action. And I don't want a short term system with only 2 IFTs a month either.

If you haven't noticed, our Sentiment Survey is #1 on the tracker. It won't always work like a charm, but it's been on a roll for months now. When it went to a buy for this week I got a bit worried that I'd be left out of yet another large move higher. And then it happens. And Yogi's whispering in my ear about that deja vu thing.

Here's today's charts:

NAMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO continue to march higher. They are now in neutral territory. Room for higher prices? Could be.

NAHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL also moved further above their respective 6 day EMAs. Still on a buy here too.

TRIN.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ bounced back hard today and flipped back to buys.

BPCOMPQ.jpg

And here's number seven. BPCOMPQ penetrated the lower bollinger band to the upside. That triggers a buy for this signal.

So we have 7 of 7 signals flashing buys, which flips the system from a sell to a buy.

Be aware, that the parameters that I'm using are the original parameters for this system. The developer has started using a variation of this system a few months ago, and I don't think his new parameters would be issuing a buy after today's action. I think the only thing missing is that NYMO has yet to reach a 28 day high. It is currently at -12.85, and needs to get over a +20 to trigger a buy (as long as all 7 signals remain on a buy).

That could happen in the next day or two with follow-up upside action.

So there it is. You can jump back in tomorrow, or wait and see if NYMO gets back to a 28 day high with seven simultaneous buy signals. That would be the more conservative approach.

As a side note to this evening's post; the Top 50 have about 57% of their funds in stocks (relatively conservative for them), but the Top 15 are at 70% stock exposure.

That's it for this evening. See you tomorrow.
 
CH,
Thanks for keeping tabs on the new parameters vs. the original parameters. This gives depth to the 7 Sentinels and helps the decisionmaking process. Best wishes.
 
Having the tops is better than not having anything. I am fairly close to locking in on the SS as the roller coaster is getting rickety.
Thanks CH
 
Well, the dip to 10,380 did make it a 7.3% (825) drop, compared to Jan 19 - Feb 8 drop of 7.6% (817) almost identical #'s of correction. The only difference so far is that in Feb it took 2 weeks for the first dip to top back out, then another week for the second (deeper) bottom. We are actually only just over week 2 comparatively. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

I'd be curious to know how the sentiment tracker did through those weeks Jan 19 - Feb 8 as well as what the SS was projecting. I'm assuming there is a history area here (still noob)?
 
crws;bt1463 said:
Well, the dip to 10,380 did make it a 7.3% (825) drop, compared to Jan 19 - Feb 8 drop of 7.6% (817) almost identical #'s of correction. The only difference so far is that in Feb it took 2 weeks for the first dip to top back out, then another week for the second (deeper) bottom. We are actually only just over week 2 comparatively. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

I'd be curious to know how the sentiment tracker did through those weeks Jan 19 - Feb 8 as well as what the SS was projecting. I'm assuming there is a history area here (still noob)?

I know the SS nailed the January decline, but it's a bit late for me to look it up (around mid-January). The sentiment survey data is available here... http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=%5EGSPC;range=6m;compare=

The S&P charts look alot alike through the tops and drop to this point. However, there is about a billion more trades a day being made quite consistently on the S&P and the Dow, FWIW

I wonder if this was the market catalyst that took over this afternoon. (besides CISCO)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= I looked around the news, but didn't see much at the time.
-Not sure I get the Sentiment Tracker triggers- would anyone care to explain i.e. this week it is on a Buy for the G fund with a 36 - 54 Bulls to Bear ratio?
 
KevinD;bt1466 said:
There's a poll on the home page every Thursday and visitors to the site vote which way they think the market will go the next week.

The rules are here.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=6702

CH - Are you going in COB today?

I have found it much easier to follow the sells than the buys because they reflect my true feelings about this market, but I've consistently missed out on gains because of my trepidation. Part of that is because I've seen sell signals from other systems that kept me waiting for better entry points only to see those signals overwhelmed by floods of cash coming into the market. Sentiment has also turned bearish quickly on declines, which forces prices higher, just like now. I am seeing the daily poll on Trader's Talk (for today) leaning fairly bearish and there's also a lot of flat, neutral positions. This means folks aren't buying this rally. That has been a prescription for higher prices too.

The sentinels have been much more solid in their performance than my own position on the tracker would seem to indicate. They tell us what the market is doing, not what we "think" it should be doing. I know many of you are seeing this system as a very useful tool now and its past record justifies that.

But there's a fly in the ointment this week. Our sentiment survey is currently showing 69% bulls and only 19% bears. That's not good at all. But the daily Trader's Talk survey isn't showing many bulls. Strange. It could mean we are getting ready to dip again to shake some of that confidence (maybe today and/or Friday?)

But to answer your question, yes, I'm moving to a 100% S fund position today. Hopefully we get to buy a dip, but past buys have tended to not let fence sitters in at lower prices.

Good luck to us all, however we decide to choose. :)
 
CH, I would like to know why we trade the G fund and the S fund, and not the L fund or C fund
Thanks again
 
Cruzen;bt1469 said:
CH, I would like to know why we trade the G fund and the S fund, and not the L fund or C fund
Thanks again

The L funds were not designed for trading. Those are buy and hold funds primarily put together for folks who have no inclination to manage their accounts beyond an age/retirement metric. (Nothing wrong with that)

The C fund is severely lagging the S this year, so if one is going to maximize gains you should probably be playing the S. If you want to diversify, spread it out. It's a personal decision.
 
Thanks CH,
I goofed trying to line up my Fund, and I already used my 2 for the month, I could not go to the S fund, I do not like the restrictions, it is hard to get use to it.:suspicious:
 
Cruzen;bt1471 said:
Thanks CH,
I goofed trying to line up my Fund, and I already used my 2 for the month, I could not go to the S fund, I do not like the restrictions, it is hard to get use to it.:suspicious:

That's why I'm so patient with my moves. We don't get nearly enough of them. I'd like one per week at a minimum.
 
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