11/12/25
Stocks were mostly positive yesterday although the action was mixed with the Dow gaining over 550-points, while the Nasdaq posted a loss. Most of the other indices were somewhere in between with small caps flat while the I-fund led with a gain of nearly 0.50%. Of course that came on the heals of Monday's big gains which I talked about briefly in Tuesday's commentary. The bond market was actually closed on Tuesday but bond ETFs traded higher.
The index charts below represents Tuesday's market action but the TSP share prices below are shoing Monday's action in the TSP funds. Because of the Veteran's Day holiday, no TSP share prices were posted for Tuesday, so Wednesday's share prices will include both Tuesday and Wednesday's market action. The implied returns in the C, S, and I-funds yesterday alone were +0.21%, -0.03%, and +0.49% respectively.
If you missed my quick Tuesday commentary that started by mistake, forgetting about the holiday initially, here are those index charts. It was a big day so I wanted to get it posted here, and that's what the TSP fund returns above are showing. I hope that makes sense.
The 559-point gain in the Dow yesterday gave it a new all-time closing high. None of our TSP funds are tracking the Dow, but I believe all thirty stocks in the Dow are in the S&P 500, which is our C-fund.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a modest gain on very light volume on Tuesday, after Monday's big rally. The light volume was of course due to the holiday. The bond market and many banks were closed yesterday but the two day rally this week has been impressive as the chart broke back above some descending resistance. If there is something to worry about it is that the two day rally was just enough to fill in the open gap from November 3rd (blue box), and in the process it opened up another gap which is down near last Friday's close (red box.) Those are short-term concerns as the broader look at the chart remains bullish with the ascending channel is very much intact.
Again, the bond market was closed but bond futures rose (yields down) on another weak employment report as the ADP suggested US firms are shedding 11,000 jobs a week. The stock market didn't worry too much because it sent the odds of a December interest rate cut by the Fed from 62% to 67%
The Dow Transportation Index gained 0.67% yesterday and that's another 4-month high for this supposed market leader that had been lagging in recent months.
With the bond market closed yesterday, the action in the stock market wasn't as meaningful. Monday's big rally could resume today or, we could see some profit talking, but whatever happens, the setup looks pretty good and, after the recent pullback, we have some decent lines in the sand that will tell us otherwise if broken.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) was flat on Tuesday after Monday's 1% gain. It continues to lag the S&P 500 despite interest rates coming down, but it could be the new hawkish outlook from the Fed on rates that is keeping investors from getting overly aggressive on small caps. Historically December and January are the best months for small caps. There is some immediate resistance at the old broke support line, but that line is rising.
ACWX (I-fund) actually made a new closing high with the 3-day rally, including yesterday's 0.49% gain. It is racing toward the intraday highs but for the short-term, we know this has been getting turned away after testing the top of that channel. There's more room on the upside before it gets there, but it has been a pretty good trade to sell the top of that channel, and buy the bottom.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up nicely as the bond ETF traded even though the bond market was closed. It implied a decline in yields because of the weak ADP jobs data.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mostly positive yesterday although the action was mixed with the Dow gaining over 550-points, while the Nasdaq posted a loss. Most of the other indices were somewhere in between with small caps flat while the I-fund led with a gain of nearly 0.50%. Of course that came on the heals of Monday's big gains which I talked about briefly in Tuesday's commentary. The bond market was actually closed on Tuesday but bond ETFs traded higher.
The index charts below represents Tuesday's market action but the TSP share prices below are shoing Monday's action in the TSP funds. Because of the Veteran's Day holiday, no TSP share prices were posted for Tuesday, so Wednesday's share prices will include both Tuesday and Wednesday's market action. The implied returns in the C, S, and I-funds yesterday alone were +0.21%, -0.03%, and +0.49% respectively.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
If you missed my quick Tuesday commentary that started by mistake, forgetting about the holiday initially, here are those index charts. It was a big day so I wanted to get it posted here, and that's what the TSP fund returns above are showing. I hope that makes sense.
The 559-point gain in the Dow yesterday gave it a new all-time closing high. None of our TSP funds are tracking the Dow, but I believe all thirty stocks in the Dow are in the S&P 500, which is our C-fund.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a modest gain on very light volume on Tuesday, after Monday's big rally. The light volume was of course due to the holiday. The bond market and many banks were closed yesterday but the two day rally this week has been impressive as the chart broke back above some descending resistance. If there is something to worry about it is that the two day rally was just enough to fill in the open gap from November 3rd (blue box), and in the process it opened up another gap which is down near last Friday's close (red box.) Those are short-term concerns as the broader look at the chart remains bullish with the ascending channel is very much intact.
Again, the bond market was closed but bond futures rose (yields down) on another weak employment report as the ADP suggested US firms are shedding 11,000 jobs a week. The stock market didn't worry too much because it sent the odds of a December interest rate cut by the Fed from 62% to 67%
The Dow Transportation Index gained 0.67% yesterday and that's another 4-month high for this supposed market leader that had been lagging in recent months.
With the bond market closed yesterday, the action in the stock market wasn't as meaningful. Monday's big rally could resume today or, we could see some profit talking, but whatever happens, the setup looks pretty good and, after the recent pullback, we have some decent lines in the sand that will tell us otherwise if broken.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) was flat on Tuesday after Monday's 1% gain. It continues to lag the S&P 500 despite interest rates coming down, but it could be the new hawkish outlook from the Fed on rates that is keeping investors from getting overly aggressive on small caps. Historically December and January are the best months for small caps. There is some immediate resistance at the old broke support line, but that line is rising.
ACWX (I-fund) actually made a new closing high with the 3-day rally, including yesterday's 0.49% gain. It is racing toward the intraday highs but for the short-term, we know this has been getting turned away after testing the top of that channel. There's more room on the upside before it gets there, but it has been a pretty good trade to sell the top of that channel, and buy the bottom.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up nicely as the bond ETF traded even though the bond market was closed. It implied a decline in yields because of the weak ADP jobs data.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
