Itchn2retire's Account Talk

[Old_School]

Interesting info you've presented. I've been actively trading for just a short while, so I'm trying to learn all that I can to make more educated moves.

 

[ravensfan]

I was split between the I & S funds during the month but have rebalanced to 100% S-fund as of COB yesterday. With the I-Fund looking like it had topped out and was ready for a dip coupled with the Dollar primed to begin rising I pulled out of the I-Fund. The S-Fund looks like it still has some steam left to it (see chart) so I'll ride that up a little bit longer and then secure my gains when it looks like it's about to roll over.

I'm still work'n on my trading/investment style so we'll see soon enough if this plays out in my favor.

View attachment 33789

Nice analysis Itchn. I couldn't agree more with your take on the S Fund. I bought the S Fund at 1131 in April so 1140ish would turn what has been a losing trade around for me. Here's to hoping this plays out in both of our favors. :beerchug:

 

[Itchn2retire]

Interesting info you've presented. I've been actively trading for just a short while, so I'm trying to learn all that I can to make more educated moves.

I joined this forum in December so I've learned a lot from reading other peoples threads. I also read the blogs and market message on Stochcharts.com as they use the charts and indicators in their analysis which I try to apply in managing my TSP. Most of those write-up are available to non-members so you do not have to join to read some of their articles.

The Chartschool is also very good so browse through that also.

StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

 

[Itchn2retire]

so 1140ish would turn what has been a losing trade around for me.

Well I'm hoping it goes higher but we'll see what the other indicators look like if we reach that line.

 

[FogSailing]

I decided to jump out for the remainder of the month. I made my 1% this month which is good enough given the flux in this market. Looking to see what happens in June. Thanks for the charts Itchin.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Well I'm hoping it goes higher but we'll see what the other indicators look like if we reach that line.

Charts and indicators still looking good. No reason to bail yet, so I remain 100% S Fund...:1244:

 

[Itchn2retire]

I decided to jump out for the remainder of the month. I made my 1% this month which is good enough given the flux in this market.

So if you can gain just 1% each month you could beat all the funds since inception. If TSP offered a guaranteed 1% per month or 12% annually that would be something to consider.

 

[Lakebound]

I decided to jump out for the remainder of the month. I made my 1% this month which is good enough given the flux in this market. Looking to see what happens in June. Thanks for the charts Itchin.

FS

I like your approach. 1% a month is very reachable in retirement to keep a nice income stream moving upward. I'm practicing for that right now.

Frank

 

[Itchn2retire]

Well there seems to be a technical glitch in my last post. I can't seem to get rid of one of those screenshots. :suspicious:

 

[Itchn2retire]

Jumping from the G to I-Fund.

Looks like the indicators are moving upward from the oversold position so it is time to jump back into the fray and ride that wave up. My short-term indicators show an upward direction but the intermediate indicators are still heading down so it may be a short ride on the I-Fund rollercoaster. I am hoping by the time I make a move out of the I fund the C-Fund will be heading out of it's oversold position so I can ride that up for a short period. (SLO Stochastic and MACD are still heading down on the C-Fund as of this writing.)

 

[Itchn2retire]

OUCH! Looks like I picked the wrong time to jump back in.

 

[Maricar19]

OUCH! Looks like I picked the wrong time to jump back in.

Itchn - did you move out of I yesterday or today?

 

[Itchn2retire]

Itchn - did you move out of I yesterday or today?

I jumped into the I Fund yesterday at COB so I took a beating today.

 

[Maricar19]

I jumped into the I Fund yesterday at COB so I took a beating today.

Here's hoping that I Fund will dramatically zoom up Monday before noon. Got some in I yesterday!

 

[FogSailing]

Nice chart Icthn..thanks.

FS

 

[Itchn2retire]

Here's hoping that I Fund will dramatically zoom up Monday before noon. Got some in I yesterday!

I'm not entirely confident it will move up on Monday or anytime early next week. I think there may be some additional downward movement before heading back up. Let's hope I'm wrong.

 

[Maricar19]

I'm not entirely confident it will move up on Monday or anytime early next week. I think there may be some additional downward movement before heading back up. Let's hope I'm wrong.

I fervently hope you are wrong! But what market indicators made you derive our further downfall?

 

[FogSailing]

Tough market to call. Part of me wants to jump in now because Greece is probably not a big issue again until the end of the month. if I jump in tomorrow, I'm thinking S. It's not as impacted by the dollar and if the Chinese news is bad next week, I don't want to be in I. If it's good, you guys all make some nice money. Best of luck to everything. Virtual beers (and for the ladies virtual chardonnay ) all around!!!!!

FS

 

[Itchn2retire]

I fervently hope you are wrong! But what market indicators made you derive our further downfall?

Well for starters the momentum has reversed (see RSI, MACD, and SLO Stochastic) They are heading back down to an oversold position. In the past when they have hit the bottom they usually head back up until it hits the resistance line. But this time they rolled over on me as soon as I jumped back in to the I-fund.



I also use other indicators to give me a general sense of the direction of the funds and they are as follows:

Relative Strength (RRG): If you look at the chart you see that when RRG is below 100 the fund has been in a downtrend. It has dipped to 99. Let’s hope that is just a short dip and it pops back up above 100.

Average Directional Index (ADX): First window below the chart. Here’s the official explanation from charts.com. “The Average Directional Index (ADX) is used to measure the strength or weakness of a trend, not the actual direction. Directional movement is defined by +DI and -DI. In general, the bulls have the edge when +DI is greater than - DI, while the bears have the edge when - DI is greater. Crosses of these directional indicators can be combined with ADX for a complete trading system.” So as you can see the red line (-DI or bear indicator) is heading up which corresponds with downtrends on the chart. The +DI (bull indicator) is heading down.

PMO is dropping and when it is below zero that has been during a downtrend on the chart.



There's also the Ichimoku chart which shows it in a bear position Ichimoku Trader - Ichimoku charts of shares & stock market indices (you will have to type in the ticker symbol to get the chart)

I'm still honing my skills for chart analyses so let's just hope I'm wrong with all the above.