Is it time to go back to F?

[lacaprup]

This market is simply too volitile to make money given the trading restrictions we have in the TSP. I have essentially sat in the G fund for a full year now. I have made very limited moves into and out of the F, C and S funds, but have made a mere 5% this year.

Everyone seems to be talking up bond trading on CNBC right now though. I don't know enough about this area to give a qualified opinion, but it would seem to me to be a good time to be F. Is this so? Can someone enlighten me please?

 

[JTH]

If CNBC is talking about it, then either they are wrong (most often the case) or the news is too late to jump on board (always the case.)

Aside from that, look at the allocations of the top 20 of this board. 17 of the top 20 are in 100% G. That fact alone should speak volumes as to the validity of the F Fund. Or you can just look at my avatar...

Cheers... JTH

 

[lacaprup]

Good point, JTF, thanks for the info.

 

[Where2Go]

Evening experts, joining as a Newbee. Need your support to complete registration. Can 10 experts help?

Where2Go

 

[burrocrat]

i'm not an expert, but a good place to start might be to make a new thread in the member introductions forum.

then just keep talking, even if only to yourself, if you build it they will come.

welcome.

 

[grandma]

Hello, where2go -
check out -http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/index.php, the block that has the rules, intros, etc. Read those, that will help you get started. Tom will help you get your own account talk; but it helps for you to introduce yourself in that `intro' thread. Read what some of the other `newbies' have written, and the responses - you'll get a feel for us soon enuff, I assure you!
-check the Auto-tracker to see where everyone is & where they were last, look at `recent ifts' to see whose done what in the last few minutes!! Click everything that lets you -

I hope you knew what you were doing when you chose that handle !!!

 

[rbjones6599]

So, is it wise to or not to contribute to the F? I have made a hansom return on the I (who hasn't?), but feel that it is only gonna get so high. What is a wise choice of allocation right now?

Thanks

Brad

 

[Birchtree]

No F - but think about 75C and 25S for the future.

 

[Barney]

I agree with Birch about no F. But I feel that small caps will prosper this year, with the rebuilding of small businesses and such. So I like 25C and 75S. Any thoughts?

 

[Barney]

Hiccuupp! Well shut my mouth!

 

[tsptalk]

Barney, you were up 34% last year - we were hoping you'd tell us.


Looks like the AGG has put in a double top. Have bonds finally peaked?

 

[Birchtree]

Wouldn't I like to see bonds drift back to par at 100 - it'll go right into equities.

 

[tsptalk]

I guess the money has to go somewhere, but you think stocks will benefit if the Fed starts talking about raising rates?

 

[Barney]

Last year, I put my trust in the S and I-funds as the dollar fell. I still believe in the S-fund but think there is strength in the dollar. Bonds are to volitile for me.

Barney, you were up 34% last year - we were hoping you'd tell us.


Looks like the AGG has put in a double top. Have bonds finally peaked?

 

[mayday]

The F-fund chart

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?AGG

 

[mayday]

I think it is time to go back to F

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?AGG

 

[JTH]

Louise Yamada is doing a segment on Bloomberg TV/radio, it's been replaying all day. If your a long-term bond holder I suggest you take a peek. It's a great listen.

 

[tsptalk]

Louise Yamada is doing a segment on Bloomberg TV/radio, it's been replaying all day. If your a long-term bond holder I suggest you take a peek. It's a great listen.

Thanks. I bought some TMV a few weeks ago to take advatage of this. It a 3X bear bond ETF. It's in my IRA so I can't short the 3X long ETF (TMF), which I'd prefer since the 3X ETF's are not great for buy and hold.

Here's the link for those interested. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Yamada%20Interview%20on%20Bonds%2C%20Strategy%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vvu8lwqFO4SA.asf

 

[tsptalk]

I didn't want to use my last IFT just yet today, but I thought about getting out of the F-fund today now that the yield of the 10-year T-note hit my target of 3.68%.

 

[tsptalk]

I didn't want to use my last IFT just yet today, but I thought about getting out of the F-fund today now that the yield of the 10-year T-note hit my target of 3.68%.

Had I remembered that Wednesday was an FOMC rate decision day, I may have been more apt to make that IFT. Uh, oh! Could they raise rates tomorrow?