Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
From the look of things, just about every TSPer out there has moved out of equities into the G or F fund the last two days. Hold down the fort Birchtree, I'd be with ya with if I could! ;)
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
From the look of things, just about every TSPer out there has moved out of equities into the G or F fund the last two days. Hold down the fort Birchtree, I'd be with ya with if I could! ;)
Click to expand...

I find it sort of odd that the sentiment survey poll is currently 49% bulls and 38% bears. You'd think it would be a lot more bearish.
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I find it sort of odd that the sentiment survey poll is currently 49% bulls and 38% bears. You'd think it would be a lot more bearish.
Click to expand...

Why? The market has been good the last few days and it appears to a lot of people that the market has reversed and is going up as expected in a Bull market...
 
Maybe we expect the first few days of the month to be downers -- that has been the pattern the last couple of months.
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I find it sort of odd that the sentiment survey poll is currently 49% bulls and 38% bears. You'd think it would be a lot more bearish.
Click to expand...

Guess people where just waiting to vote. The survey ended 31% bulls and 59% bears. This is more in line with all the IFTs we have been seeing exiting equities over the last couple days.
 
A quick update on my Intrepid_Timer system:


If you took advantage of last month's free access day to my commentaries, you most likely saw that I made some adjustments to my Timer system in mid-May. Below are the returns of my system's moves for the S fund, the F fund and 3X ETF/2X mutual fund long/short pairs since 05/19/2011.


S fund: 6.87% (Buy-and-hold has returned 0.48%).
F fund: 1.86% (Buy-and-hold has returned 0.89%).


FAS/FAZ: 78.98%
DZK/DPK: 43.89%
TNA/TZA: 41.72%


UAPIX/UCPIX: 28.09%
UNPIX/UXPIX: 30.61%


Please keep in mind that the TSP returns are for all signals produced by my Timer system and that ittypically gives two buy signals per month so one's actual returns would depend on which signal was used.


As you can see, the adjustments I made have proven quite beneficial to improving returns. I will continue to make adjustments on an as needed basis. Since it typically takes acouple trades to realize that something is amiss, it can some times take a month before knowing that an adjustment is needed.


Since the stock market is an ever evolving entity, so too must a trading system be. This is what will keep a good trading strategy consistent on a yearly basis.
 
I posted the following in my premium services thread and because I hate seeing anyone lose money, especially myself, I thought I would post it here in hopes that it may help in your decision process if you are looking for an entry or if you are contemplating jumping ship.

All my indicators are now 90% positive, which means if I wasn't already in, I'd certainly be buying today and definitely wouldn't be selling. I mentioned this morning in my commentary that we may see some more weakness on Tuesday if the Fed doesn't mention anything about QE3 happening. Although this may still happen, upon reflection I am thinking that Bernanke may re-state that they will be reinvesting any expiring treasuries that they have already purchased. I am now also thinking that, just as Barton Biggs has stated, the Fed may come out and state that they feel the housing market has bottomed, or is close to it, and they will indeed use the funds from these expiring treasuries to purchase mortgages and/or mortgage backed securities with the idea of selling them in 5 years or so. This would certainly give a boost to housing markets and commodities and in turn cause the markets to jump up. Just a thought.......
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I posted the following in my premium services thread and because I hate seeing anyone lose money, especially myself, I thought I would post it here in hopes that it may help in your decision process if you are looking for an entry or if you are contemplating jumping ship.

All my indicators are now 90% positive, which means if I wasn't already in, I'd certainly be buying today and definitely wouldn't be selling. I mentioned this morning in my commentary that we may see some more weakness on Tuesday if the Fed doesn't mention anything about QE3 happening. Although this may still happen, upon reflection I am thinking that Bernanke may re-state that they will be reinvesting any expiring treasuries that they have already purchased. I am now also thinking that, just as Barton Biggs has stated, the Fed may come out and state that they feel the housing market has bottomed, or is close to it, and they will indeed use the funds from these expiring treasuries to purchase mortgages and/or mortgage backed securities with the idea of selling them in 5 years or so. This would certainly give a boost to housing markets and commodities and in turn cause the markets to jump up. Just a thought.......
Click to expand...

Bump, hey buddy forgot to thank you for your comments, thanks and have a great weekend!
 
JTH said:
Bump, hey buddy forgot to thank you for your comments, thanks and have a great weekend!
Click to expand...

Your welcome. Just throwing ideas out there. What are your thoughts on the downgrade and everyone thinking stocks will tank Monday? My thought is I'd rather be in stocks than bonds for the next week or two...........

You have a great weekend too!! :D
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Your welcome. Just throwing ideas out there. What are your thoughts on the downgrade and everyone thinking stocks will tank Monday? My thought is I'd rather be in stocks than bonds for the next week or two...........

You have a great weekend too!! :D
Click to expand...

I don't have a whole lot of conviction on stocks or bonds, but if you ask me I'd say bonds gave us a preparatory command (speaking in drill terms) I'd say they are primed for an about-face. Check out the volume on many of the bond charts. I still have a bunch of numbers to crunch this weekend but I'd guess my Bond system issued a sell this week. Problem is that the sell signals are less reliable in a bull market and for bonds they have been more of a pause than a pullback.

View attachment 14861
 
JTH said:
I don't have a whole lot of conviction on stocks or bonds, but if you ask me I'd say bonds gave us a preparatory command (speaking in drill terms) I'd say they are primed for an about-face. Check out the volume on many of the bond charts. I still have a bunch of numbers to crunch this weekend but I'd guess my Bond system issued a sell this week. Problem is that the sell signals are less reliable in a bull market and for bonds they have been more of a pause than a pullback.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info! For those never in the military, preparatory command is the "set-up" for the action. "About" face, "left" march, "double-time" march................;)

My thinking is that the stock holders had their pain, now it's the bond holders turn.

I posted the below over in my premium thread. Just thinking out loud basically. Like you, I'll do what my system says. Can't be on the right side all the time..............you had a great first half of the year, but I'm gonna get ya in the second half!! :p

"I would be more alarmed about being in the F fund Monday than the C, S or I funds. The downgrade "should" cause interest rates to rise, driving people out of bonds. Where else they gonna go? STOCKS!! :D Funny thing is, this downgrade or negative watch or whatever has been on the radar for some time now. I wonder who has been buying bonds lately, thereby pushing interest rates down? Could someone have been manipulating this knowing a downgrade was coming in order to ease the pain? You don't suppose mom and pop investor have been pushed out of stocks with the recent decline and running to the relative safety of bonds only to be bombarded by a downgrade and will now see their bond holdings fall do you? Even worse, the short term bonds will be hit hardest and once these mature, mom and pop will rush out of bonds, at a loss, and back into stocks. But guess what? They will most likely be buying these stocks at higher prices, just in time for the big money to start selling them again. And the cycle continues...................just an opinion of course."
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

NewsFeeder
China's Xi and top leaders call for halting real estate decline, responding to public
Replies
0
Views
77
NewsFeeder
NewsFeeder
NewsFeeder
DocuSign chief says company wants to stay public after reports of private equity take
Replies
0
Views
93
NewsFeeder
NewsFeeder
UNIX84
UNIX84 Account Talk
Replies
14
Views
3K
tsptalk
tsptalk
V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
157
tsptalk
tsptalk
NewsFeeder
Online trading platform Webull is set to go public via a $7.3 billion SPAC deal
Replies
0
Views
148
NewsFeeder
NewsFeeder
Back
Top