Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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Using a simple moving average crossover to exit the market when the faster average crosses below the slower average can save the buy and holder a lot of unnecessary pain. Then, get back in the market when the faster average crosses back above the slower average (20 day and 50 day as I_T suggested would work well). Using a moving average crossover to follow big bullish and bearish trends results in returns comparable to buy and hold over the course of entire business cycles but with lower risk. Using the moving average crossover is a good way to manage risk. There is no reason to watch your account value drop 30-50% over 10 months (average length of a bear market is 10 months).
 
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Re: [B]ATTENTION TO ALL NEW MEMBERS OF TSPTALK!!![/B]

Scrappy said:
Intrepid Timer,

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you or concluding that you are either right or wrong.
But, what do you reference for facts to support your statements?

You can find the 10 year returns of the various TSP funds at TSP.gov.

And, why does TSP information as well as others publish information to show that the majority of people do better on buy and hold?

I believe you'll find they are talking about the last 50-100 years. The internet didn't really become popular until the mid to late 1990's. With the influx of online trading and trading programs, going much past 10-15 years is not realistic in my opinion. It's like saying "Since 1914 US automobiles have averaged 10 miles per gallon." We know in the last 20 years they have averaged higher.

Just because a person has a strategy doesn't mean it will equal success.

I agree, but if you have a plan and research it, or look at a premium services past success, with a little patience that plan should work to your advantage over time. You have to continue to research consistently and always look for ways to improve. I'm not saying it's easy or not time consuming, if it were, the pay services wouldn't be needed.

My personal opinion is leaning towards believing that if a person doesn't have some time set aside EVERY DAY to analyze information/situation, then they should buy and hold. :)

That's is why people pay me and why I quit my cushy government job. You have no idea how much time I spend doing this. If I could do it whenever I wanted to or just take closing prices like some premium services do, or just use moving averages if I thought they worked, like I use to, then I'd still be with the government. I put a lot on the line by quitting, if I didn't believe in my strategies, I wouldn't of done it.
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I've probably averaged about 6 hours a day, 7 days a week for the last 6 years going over data, backtesting, looking at something different, backtesting, analyzing, trying something new, backtesting, analyzing again, inputting data...............before I developed what I consider the best timing strategy out there, especially for TSP. Do I think it's worth $20 per month, no I don't, it's worth a heck of a lot more. But I don't need much to get by because I have my own retirement accounts to get me where I wanna go. I just need some spending money right now because I don't like paying a 10% penalty every time I need some money and because I don't want to have to go back to work so I can concentrate on my timer system and not worry about missing signals or not being able to get my numbers at the exact time I need to. Trust me, having other people rely your service is not something I take lightly............when I say my system can average 24% per year, every year with a low risk timing strategy, I mean it............:)
 
Re: [B]ATTENTION TO ALL NEW MEMBERS OF TSPTALK!!![/B]

Intrepid_Timer said:
Trust me, having other people rely your service is not something I take lightly............when I say my system can average 24% per year, every year with a low risk timing strategy, I mean it............:)
Click to expand...

Especially with friends and family members following that same system..........:blink:
 
Happy Trails said:
Using a simple moving average crossover to exit the market when the faster average crosses below the slower average can save the buy and holder a lot of unnecessary pain. Then, get back in the market when the faster average crosses back above the slower average (20 day and 50 day as I_T suggested would work well). Using a moving average crossover to follow big bullish and bearish trends results in returns comparable to buy and hold over the course of entire business cycles but with lower risk. Using the moving average crossover is a good way to manage risk. There is no reason to watch your account value drop 30-50% over 10 months (average length of a bear market is 10 months).
Click to expand...

Agreed HT. You also have to be careful of those whipsaws with basically only one in and out move per month with TSP.........

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/whipsaw.asp
 
I_T keep up the tremendous work. The education & timing skills have proven awesome results for me. I with you all the way.......start to finish.
 
Milkman (in regards to the L-Funds) +1

IMHO they are worthless, meant for the "fire & forget" crowd. Problem is we no longer live in a world where you can take your eyes off the target, not even for one moment...
 
Bronco07 said:
I_T keep up the tremendous work. The education & timing skills have proven awesome results for me. I with you all the way.......start to finish.
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On a morning like this (look at those futures !) I'm glad I'm with the I-T System.... Bet the F Fund will be rocking today. Thanks I-T!:)
 
Bronco07 said:
I_T keep up the tremendous work. The education & timing skills have proven awesome results for me. I with you all the way.......start to finish.
Click to expand...
Right there with you! Especially after reading your commentary this morning I realized I just don't have the vocabulary for this kind of thing. $20 is a small price to pay to have someone else do all the ground pounding and research. It's really nice that it translates to trading mutual funds as well!
 
I'm glad you guys are finding it worth the money. :)

I thought the technical data I posted this morning was pretty interesting also. Although it's not part of my system, I still find it pretty cool to see how my Timing system relates to such data.
 
Thanks! I'm not a real big market analysis type person, I find it just fuels the flames of human emotion and this just gets in the way of a successful timing strategy. However, when going through all the data and numbers I do on a daily basis, I sometimes come across things that are interesting and perhaps even important to keep an eye on.

The few things I've talked about the last few days have seemed to come to fruition, but that doesn't mean I know what's going to happen tomorrow, or the next day. I'll just stick to what my timing system tells me to do. Neither my backtested data nor my actual returns have been too bad since implementation.

Patience, prudence and discipline are my 3 keys to implementing a successful timing system. :)
 
I_T:

I'm just curious, are you good at this or just really lucky? It doesn't matter as much as being right.....I suppose.

The reason I ask, is that I've never figured out how "systems" can presage news-based market reactions, as well as the subsequent level of emotion, which is what the last couple opportunities have been. And - for the last couple years - it's been a guessing game as to what new government free lunch will be handed after the last one expires; another factor which has been recently important, but -in my mind- hard to base a system on.
 
amoeba said:
I_T:

I'm just curious, are you good at this or just really lucky? It doesn't matter as much as being right.....I suppose.

The reason I ask, is that I've never figured out how "systems" can presage news-based market reactions, as well as the subsequent level of emotion, which is what the last couple opportunities have been. And - for the last couple years - it's been a guessing game as to what new government free lunch will be handed after the last one expires; another factor which has been recently important, but -in my mind- hard to base a system on.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't sell a product if I didn't believe in it. It's tough to be lucky for a full year and not have one equities trade in TSP go for a loss. Sure some one could of bought and held all year and ended up with a nice gain last year, but you would of endeared some pretty strong pull backs and who knows when a 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2008 will happen again. I ended up 29.18% last year on 24 trades into and out of the S or I funds. If someone thinks it was luck, that's fine by me. I'll say one thing, a LOT of time and effort went into that luck.

What's that saying, "Chance favors the prepared mind"? ;)
 
amoeba said:
I_T:

I'm just curious, are you good at this or just really lucky? It doesn't matter as much as being right.....I suppose.

The reason I ask, is that I've never figured out how "systems" can presage news-based market reactions, as well as the subsequent level of emotion, which is what the last couple opportunities have been. And - for the last couple years - it's been a guessing game as to what new government free lunch will be handed after the last one expires; another factor which has been recently important, but -in my mind- hard to base a system on.
Click to expand...

BTW, you said the market has pulled back due to news-based market reactions,, not I..................I personally feel the the news out of Libya was just convenient. It gives the talking heads an excuse for not fore-seeing this current pullback. It's not their fault, it's Libya's...............:rolleyes:
 
I get the picture - thx....a bit disappointed by the last hour of trade....I find it hard to believe that the libya/oil price spike has nothing to do with it, but then....if I was anyone else, I'd look at my history and see that I haven't hit the dartboard no less the center of it in the last 10 months.

Continued good luck, live long and prosper.......
 
All I have to say I_T is "YOU ARE THE MAN!" and you have made me a believer. I am moving up the ladder slowly but surely. Sitting at #75. Love your system and especially like the fact that you will take the time to answer individual messages and help out the little guy.
 
wvango said:
All I have to say I_T is "YOU ARE THE MAN!" and you have made me a believer. I am moving up the ladder slowly but surely. Sitting at #75. Love your system and especially like the fact that you will take the time to answer individual messages and help out the little guy.
Click to expand...

Glad you like it! What's your name again? :toung:
 
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