Interfund Transfer 2/4 for 2/7/05

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The jobs report came in at 146,000, or 54,000 less than estimated, which just puts it in the "large surprise" category. Based on what I said in Friday's comments, I will lighten up for a few days to 50% G, 50% C, and look to pick a better spot to get invested again.
 
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I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...
 
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Notice that the F fund is leading today. I mentioned on Wednesday that this was likely to occur if the job numbers came in at the low end.
 
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If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
 
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The dollar rally may continue for awhile yet. I'd like to see a top form on it before I move back into the I fund. A couple more points or so on the dollar index is probably as far as it will go.

Trade numbers will come out in a week, I think - I'll just assume they will be cruddy, and that will send the dollar down (that's what happened the last time, anyway). Hopefully the dollar will climb up into that 87-88 area on the dollar index in the meantime. That'll knock the I fund down quite a bit and give a nice buy-in opportunity before the trade data comes out.
 
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USA TODAY
02/04/2005 - Updated 9:39 AM ET


Stocks steady after jobs data
Jobless rate falls to lowest level since September '01

By Susan Lerner, MarketWatch


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks were holding steady early Friday as Wall Street assessed a weaker-than-expected January employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average [$INDU] was up 3 points in the opening minutes of trade to 10,596 while the Nasdaq Composite Index [$COMPQ] added 2 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,059 and the S&P 500 [$SPX] edged almost 1 point to 1,190.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 5.4 percent to 5.2 percent in January, the lowest since September 2001. Nonfarm payrolls, however, rose a disappointing 146,000 in the month.

Analysts said the headlines were disappointing but may not be as bad for equities as they would suggest.

"I think for equities at this stage of the cycle we're kind of hoping for Goldilocks type of economic data," said Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Wachovia Securities. "Anything on the super strong side I think would create fears that the Fed will have an increased proclivity to tighten. At this point in time to have job creation maybe at a slower than expected pace might be ultimately positive for equities."
After the "correction" we still don't have a confirmation on the primary direction of the market (bull or bear). But, the market has been moving up from the low of 1163 (S&P). Moving averages are under pricing, and the money flow is now back in the positive range. Am I missing something????

Rgds ?:?? Spaf
 
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Mike wrote:
I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...
Hey, hey, HEY. Just 12 hours ago I was the stupid negative guy, the sky is falling guy.

Darn, I was off by 6,000 :X.

The 146,000 gain in payrolls in January - while the most since October - still fell short of economists' forecasts for a more robust gain of around 200,000 for the month. Jobs gains for December came in at 133,000, down from an initial estimate of 157,000 just a month ago.

The hit was the textile job loss...now with all the M&A the job report will continue not be that rosy....
 
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pyriel wrote:
If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.

The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.

However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).
 
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... and based on market reaction thus far, looks like I'll actually profit by selling today. :shock:
 
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saraho wrote:
pyriel wrote:
If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.

The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.

However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).
If you look a the S fund chart it is rolling over...it will lead the rest of the market down...but I am probably wrong since I can not seem to get anything else correct ;).

MT
 
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Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.
 
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saraho wrote:
Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.
Sarah,

This happens every time at the G7...jawbone...research what happens to the U.S. dollar after the G7...what I am doing now is putting new money to work and purchasing foreign currency and silver right now...other countries are still fooled by jawboning because in the old days we would follow through....on the other hand...have you seen how fast foreign central banks have been dumping their dollar holdings....hmmm...wonder why???? Hmmm...will let you come to your own conclusions on this one.

:shock:

MT
 
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saraho wrote:
Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.
thats what I thought would happen, but I still think the c and especially the S is going to move at least as high as the peak of the last six months. almost put it in the safe mode but I expect some more profits out of the c and s. I can't sit in the G fund, and I can't(as high as the I fund is) take the chance on the dollar taking a hard bounce. There is still plenty of potential in the small and medium caps.
 
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Help!

Did I miss something. The way I figure it is the I Fund gained .78% Friday.
 
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Despite my recent cautiousness, there is an old and very true expression that you should never "fight the tape." The C and S funds are both above their 50 day MAs and are looking strong at this point. I'll see what the market action is on Monday. Assuming that there is no significant change, I'll likely add some S fund to my mix.

I'm currently 75%G, 25%C. I will likely move to 50% G, 25%C, 25%S on Tuesday...but Monday's morning action will give me a better idea.

The I fund continues to underperform the S and Cas the dollar continues to rise, so its not a place to be IMHO. The dollar shows no signs of letup at this point.
 
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saraho wrote:
Despite my recent cautiousness, there is an old and very true expression that you should never "fight the tape." The C and S funds are both above their 50 day MAs and are looking strong at this point.
????? Huh??????? You may want not to be a navigator of a ship...because you are aiming for some rough waters...with a smile on your face...ICEBERG. NASDAQ has a long row to hoe to get above the 50 DMA....the trend is down...dead kitty bounce...plus believe it not 11B of NEW money came into the market on Friday...talk about buying on the bad news...you sell the bad news and buy the good news...greed and need again.

This is some ugly tape to me...looks like July 2004 :shock::

z
 
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MarketTimer wrote:
????? Huh??????? You may want not to be a navigator of a ship...because you are aiming for some rough waters...with a smile on your face...ICEBERG. NASDAQ has a long row to hoe to get above the 50 DMA....the trend is down...dead kitty bounce...plus believe it not 11B of NEW money came into the market on Friday...talk about buying on the bad news...you sell the bad news and buy the good news...greed and need again.

This is some ugly tape to me...looks like July 2004 :shock::


MT, I'm totally in agreement with you with respect to the Nasdaq. But I'm not trading the Nasdaq.... If you're saying that the Nasdaq will affect the S fund, well when it does,I'll act accordingly.
 
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Hi Sarah,

Hope you are well today.

The benchmark of the S fund is the Wilshire 4500 or theExtended Market Growth Fund or another name for it is the NASDAQ...they are all the same animal....so I felt I needed for you tothink about the TITANTIC...you may want to read my post to Tom concerning insider selling exercising their stock options now...

The S fund is actually the least favorable fund to be in this year...the C fund MAY be in the black this year but I do not see it....the market does not go up every year and with the gains the previous two we need to get back to some sort of normal average...those who can step aside when the market is down and buy with both hands when the market go up can reallymake some dough...those who know when to short the market when it is going down can really supercharge their returns.

God bless be safe and I hope you understand my dire warnings...that you may be buying into some serious selling.

You are a smart gal...please research "head and shoulders reverasal" and 3 Peaks and a Domed Top" you will see what is coming ahead. You should see the other boards I am on...The next rally Started on Friday....geez...we are still in a bear market.

:DMT
 
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