IllinifanMichael's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

I understand that Birchtree and I think the reason why is because overall we have a herd mentality which is leading to more and more destructive rampages down Wall Street. Passive investing by sticking to a fund or 2, is a perfectly acceptable practice. The problems come when people move from passive investing to active, but stick with the behavior of a passive investor.

There is a lot of available information for TSPers, but I think most are like me in that we are inexperienced and accept information with an uncritical & untrained eye, maybe even overwhelmed by the information and neglect to check it out ourself is what leads to herding. Hey we all want the easy way. A straight ride to 14K in 29 days would be sweet, but as I said somewhere earlier I'm expecting/hoping for 14K by October and I KNOW it will be a roller coaster ride there.

Several things to keep in mind. Inflationary pressure is here,look at the cost of food and fuel. The earnings drove the markets higher based on lower exceptions. We are in a period where real estate sales and building are down. The Fed is walking a tightrope. I think that earnings will be not that great and warnings will be coming out of companies. When you have all these cheerleaders talking 14000...not you....its time to bail.Also, we are in a business cycle which always turns like in March 2003. GL

 

[Birchtree]

I'm waiting for 12% to tell you to buy gold.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Several things to keep in mind. Inflationary pressure is here,look at the cost of food and fuel. The earnings drove the markets higher based on lower exceptions. We are in a period where real estate sales and building are down. The Fed is walking a tightrope. I think that earnings will be not that great and warnings will be coming out of companies. When you have all these cheerleaders talking 14000...not you....its time to bail.Also, we are in a business cycle which always turns like in March 2003. GL

I agree to a point with you on this 12%... I understand we're going to be skittish/tight for a month or 2 maybe. I've tried looking at the cycle thing (remember I am new and have been looking at data for only about a month seriously) and going by the March 2003 thought didn't the S&P 500 go up a fairly significant % for next 6 months after that? That is what I'm hoping/thinking right now.

I'm still trying to get a handle on all this, but like the US dollar being at it lowest vs the euro right now, I know I should be doing something somewhere but I haven't figured it out yet.

 

[fabijo]

I have come to the conclusion that TSPTalk.com cost's me $$$$ Every day so far I make a pot of coffee sit down with a fresh cup and start reading threads. Invariably the cup goes cold by the time I get back to drinking it because I get so engrossed. :suspicious: Even though I concentrate on finishing the cup.... so off to the microwave I go to reheat it (energy used) but reheated coffee isn't as fresh tasting, sooooo eventually now I make 2 pots of coffee instead of one! :laugh:

My coffee keeps getting cold during these mornings, too! Sometimes I am just too lazy to get up and reheat it that I just drink the cold coffee. It tastes horrible, but I just need the caffeine.

 

[Remo]

I have come to the conclusion that TSPTalk.com cost's me $$$$ Every day so far I make a pot of coffee sit down with a fresh cup and start reading threads. Invariably the cup goes cold by the time I get back to drinking it because I get so engrossed. :suspicious: Even though I concentrate on finishing the cup.... so off to the microwave I go to reheat it (energy used) but reheated coffee isn't as fresh tasting, sooooo eventually now I make 2 pots of coffee instead of one! :laugh:

This is a good thing! You've doubled your coffee consumption and increased your energy needs; contributing directly to the US economy and indirectly into My, Birch's, and Fabijo's TSP accounts. I love it.:nuts: Now that's what I call trickle down economics.!

 

[Birchtree]

Does he know how much it costs him everytime he flushes his 1.6 gallon. That thing is the real Al Gore legacy. And here the Japanese excell with their Toto models. The NYA has finally gone positive. Monday should be another impulse day.

 

[12%ayear]

I'm waiting for 12% to tell you to buy gold.

Gold? lol...Buy undervalued stocks. I bought IMAX 2.90s sold low 5.00s bought YHOO 24s sold 31s, bought RIMM 78s sold123s just to name a few. Also shorting is a great way. Love to short QQQQs

 

[Tempest]

I know I should be doing something somewhere but I haven't figured it out yet.

Your doing something now. Your in 'G' -Get your money out of 'G'.

There is no profit there.

You want to make money-embrace risk and watch the direction of the market. 'G' returns will not keep up with inflation. Spend an evening or 2 or 3 with no distractions. Go through the TSP Talk archives here-back to last year and the years past. There are some eye openers. You begin to discern.
Filter out the noise-there's a lot.

I'm 53 years old 25 years service been in FERS since it's inception. No plans to retire (Why work twice as hard for half pay?). Oh yeah if your not max'd out on your TSP contribution w/catchup then do it. Now.

Everyone is complaining the price of gasoline and food is going up. (Hardly news to me -I'm old enough to remember Shell Premium hit 35 cents a gallon and 'I'd be damned' if I'd ever pay that price.) I prefer to think food and gasoline hasn't really gone up - it's just that our money is worth less/worthless.

Think about it. I MEAN really think about it. No joke.
Get out of 'G'.

Oh yeah corrections-if you are truly afraid of them don't be in the market.
Dumbest thing I ever did with my TSP account was move to 'G' after 2/26.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Your doing something now. Your in 'G' -Get your money out of 'G'.

There is no profit there.

You want to make money-embrace risk and watch the direction of the market. 'G' returns will not keep up with inflation. Spend an evening or 2 or 3 with no distractions. Go through the TSP Talk archives here-back to last year and the years past. There are some eye openers. You begin to discern.
Filter out the noise-there's a lot.

I'm 53 years old 25 years service been in FERS since it's inception. No plans to retire (Why work twice as hard for half pay?). Oh yeah if your not max'd out on your TSP contribution w/catchup then do it. Now.

Oh yeah corrections-if you are truly afraid of them don't be in the market.
Dumbest thing I ever did with my TSP account was move to 'G' after 2/26.

I usually put my money in G fund to save from a loss as Paladin pointed out...

But those who were in 'G' on 2/27 avoided losses of -3.16% (I), -3.27% (S) and -3.42% (C) that day. The market does not always go straight up, and avoiding a big loss is always a wise thing to do. The problem is predicting when a correction is likely to occur, and that is the essence of market timing. Or you can buy and hold and not worry about timing.

I've been with USPS for 27 years and TSP since day it started (I'm 47 yrs old), I've always maxed out as far as I know. But I do want to retire in 15 1/2 more years at 62 when my multiplyer goes to 1.1% with 42 years of service. As you know in beginning had to put 80% in G until it gradually faded out as to where you had to put your money. I was always a C fund kind of guy. Even in 2001 and 2002.

Until this year I never really messed with TSP to much in trying to maximize. I love being in C, S, & I funds BUT now trying to stop the losses by being in the G once in awhile. I've had 4 bad days this month (April) 2 of the days were my fault in that my head told me one thing but I tried something else. But in seeing some of the returns some people have I know I can do better. Thats why I'm here now... trying to get a handle on this & drinking to much coffee & helping Remo, Birch's, and Fabijo's accounts.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

My coffee keeps getting cold during these mornings, too! Sometimes I am just too lazy to get up and reheat it that I just drink the cold coffee. It tastes horrible, but I just need the caffeine.

:laugh: I tried that a couple times, trying to convince myself that it's a starbucks ice coffee I pay $1.49 for a small bottle of.... doesn't work and it IS horrible.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

but like the US dollar being at it lowest vs the euro right now, I know I should be doing something somewhere but I haven't figured it out yet.

Tempest I was meaning I should be doing something concerning the US dollar being at it's lowest vs the euro specifically.. Sorry for the vagueness/clarity on my part....

 

[Birchtree]

48% of SPX (C fund) earnings are coming from export orientation - that's a reasonably safe dollar play. Some folks here are only interested in the percentage game rather than accumulation of shares for the valuation approach. If you rode the thunder in 2000 and 2001 - 2002 by staying in the C fund and did dollar cost averaging all the way into the bottom - you must have really stunk up the place on the ride in 2003 - smelling like a rose. The trick is to use a dollar cost average approach as the portfolio redeemer. Just think that when you hit fifty you can dump $20,000 a year into your TSP. Let's see 20,000 x 10 = 200,000 and don't forget the matching, every little bit helps. I took down 1300 C fund shares last year - I won't be so lucky this year because prices are on the move.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

48% of SPX (C fund) earnings are coming from export orientation - that's a reasonably safe dollar play. Some folks here are only interested in the percentage game rather than accumulation of shares for the valuation approach. If you rode the thunder in 2000 and 2001 - 2002 by staying in the C fund and did dollar cost averaging all the way into the bottom - you must have really stunk up the place on the ride in 2003 - smelling like a rose. The trick is to use a dollar cost average approach as the portfolio redeemer. Just think that when you hit fifty you can dump $20,000 a year into your TSP. Let's see 20,000 x 10 = 200,000 and don't forget the matching, every little bit helps. I took down 1300 C fund shares last year - I won't be so lucky this year because prices are on the move.

It's the stinking up part I want to reduce. :embarrest: I realize I won't completely be able to eliminate it (would be nice!) yes 2003 was a fine year. I find that when I "pay attention" and more active with this I do a slight bit better overall. It does take time and effort though.

Working for USPS I can put $20K into TSP?? Something I'd have to look into. My youngest son would be a JR in college then.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Well decided to do a 50/50 for Tuesday with C & S funds.... no particular reason why really, maybe it was watching TV and some ad with Clint Eastwood saying "Do you feel lucky" did it...

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Alrighty then... ended April on a positive note to end up at a relatively nice 3% for the month and first day of May was positive so I hope the trend continues....

 

[IllinifanMichael]

okay a little help here in understanding this... that the dollar is at it's highest against the yen right now for a 2 month period and that brings a positive to the market? How's that? Second part is with the Japanese markets being closed on Thursday and Friday how does that affect/effect the I fund inparticular and other funds as well??

 

[Birchtree]

Products exported from Japan are cheaper to the consumer - it's the Euro Zone that is shaking because the Japanese product is really undercutting their domestic markets. An Acura RL will be cheaper in this country as compared to a BMW 7 series - value approach. The United Kingdom has a larger percentage component to the I fund than the Nikkei.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Products exported from Japan are cheaper to the consumer - it's the Euro Zone that is shaking because the Japanese product is really undercutting their domestic markets. An Acura RL will be cheaper in this country as compared to a BMW 7 series - value approach. The United Kingdom has a larger percentage component to the I fund than the Nikkei.

So then with the Japanese markets being closed Thur/Fri the I Fund should rise? Because of the "lack of volitility" the yen or maybe because the yen would be "stable" for those 2 days? :embarrest:

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Come on stocks....

 

[Birchtree]

Remember, staying long requires creativity. Fear is easier to act on than confidence. We may see the SPX take out the 1500 level today. The bears are bleeding red and will start to cover later if they are smart. GL.