I fund

[rcknfrewld]

Pin the tail on the donkey is more predictable than the elusive "I" fund

 

[Show-me]

Thanks for the updates.

Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go.

 

[ebbnflow]

Does this mean if the markets closed down -1% tomorrow and you bought into the I-Fund, that you'd get in at -2.07% (2 for the price of one?)

Yep, if you IFT'ed into the I-fund on Thursday before noon, but with Japan unleashing their own ultra-QE, the FV baggage of -1.07% is just the price of admission (Nikkei has been doing cartwheels tonight). :blink:

 

[ebbnflow]

Analysts say that numbers between 190,000 to 200,000 are a bit high for the March jobs report. Whisper numbers which are considered closer to expectations are said to be in the range of 160,000 to 170,000.

 

[bmneveu]

Yep, if you IFT'ed into the I-fund on Thursday before noon, but with Japan unleashing their own ultra-QE, the FV baggage of -1.07% is just the price of admission (Nikkei has been doing cartwheels tonight). :blink:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.

 

[Frixxxx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.

The FV function (snipe gains) you are looking for used to exist, but when we had unlimited IFTs, and exploitable.

Now with two IFTs/month I don't think anybody's willing to risk the attempt to try and track something that would almost need immediate action to get.

But if you know someone,

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.17%; EFA (I-fund): -0.50%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.10% for the I-fund. If we add Thursday's FV baggage of -1.07%, then Friday's I-fund loss is -0.97%. I don't expect any FV tonight, so the I-fund is all squared up.

TNA lost -0.66% (YTD: +27.58%).

Using TNA while following the triple patterns -- priceless!

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think JTH was talking about buying in Friday (today). So if EFA dropped 1% today and we subtracted another 1% for the FV "correction", would he get in at a -2% discount?

I am curious too here to see if there is a way to anticipate large FV moves. If so, it might be possible to snipe some gains with 1-day moves in and out of the I fund, until the IFT limit gets you.

Like Frixxxx said, don't even try gaming the FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.63%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.89%; EFA (I-fund): +0.39%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.41% for the I-fund (I don't expect any +FV). I'm starting to get motion sickness.

TNA gained +2.66% (YTD: +30.99%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.35%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.03%; EFA (I-fund): +0.36%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.50% for the I-fund. The dollar weakness propped up the I-fund.

TNA: -0.90% (YTD: +29.80%).

Using TNA while following the triple patterns (YTD): +38.31%. Since Nov. 2008 (TNA start): +1,224%.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.22%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.44%; EFA (I-fund): +1.48%.

Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +1.60% for the I-fund. Wow, where did that come from? :blink:

TNA: +5.66% (YTD: +37.15%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.36%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.38%; EFA (I-fund): +0.79%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +1.24% for the I-fund. If that's the caboose arriving late at the station, then are we finally ready for the ride back down? :blink:

TNA: +0.41% (YTD: +37.71%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[bmneveu]

Unofficial results for today:

EFA (I-fund): +0.79%.

Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +1.24% for the I-fund.

So we got some extra gains from FV? Does that mean it will even out with a deduction tomorrow?

 

[ebbnflow]

So we got some extra gains from FV? Does that mean it will even out with a deduction tomorrow?

The I-fund is all squared up yesterday, so the +1.24% comes from today's falling dollar and the overseas markets. I don't expect any -FV tonight (not enough for a half percent), but the dollar rising a bit (UUP -0.45% to -0.27%) in the afternoon can create a dollar-rise carryover (-0.18%) for tomorrow's I-fund.

 

[Show-me]

Had I not been at the Doctor's office I would have made at least a partial move today. Me thinks a pull back is looming as the upper BB has be seriously violated.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.28%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.35%; EFA (I-fund): -0.21%.

Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.52% for the I-fund (no FV tonight). Time to relax and watch some golf.

TNA: -1.53% (YTD: +35.58%).

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): -2.30%; DWCPF (S-fund): -3.36%; EFA (I-fund): -1.99%.

Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.81% for the I-fund (expect a -FV tonight). The buy-and-beholders stand pat. :blink:

TNA: -11.12% (YTD: +20.51%). Sooner or later you're gonna have to stop throwing darts.

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.69%; EFA (I-fund): +1.42%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.61% for the I-fund. Add Monday's FV buffer of +1.04%, and the I-fund is up +0.43% for today. I am not sure of a +FV tonight, but it's going to be only half a percent if we get one.

TNA: +5.06% (YTD: +26.61%). Perfect snapback to keep the bulls in the game. Bull trap? :blink:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial results for today:

S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.43%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.69%; EFA (I-fund): +1.42%.

Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.61% for the I-fund. Add Monday's FV buffer of +1.04%, and the I-fund is up +0.43% for today. I am not sure of a +FV tonight, but it's going to be only half a percent if we get one.

TNA: +5.06% (YTD: +26.61%). Perfect snapback to keep the bulls in the game. Bull trap? :blink:

Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.

I-fund: +1.34%. Oops, forgot to factor in Japan's Nikkei which is still expected to track most of Wall Street's gains. Monday's FV buffer of +1.04% was added to Tuesday's MSCI EAFE of -0.61% (I-fund +0.43%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +0.91% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (+1.34%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.91% at the get-go.

 

[JTH]

Thank you for posting these updates