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- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
- Status
rcknfrewld
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 8
Evenflow...any positive fair value out there that could take I from neg to pos
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
From my WSJ: "Not only has the Fed significantly expanded its footprint in the financial markets by essentially doubling the pace of its bond buying from last year, but the Bank of Japan is likely to finally join the aggressive easy money club in an attempt to revive the moribund Japanese economy. Those expectations alone - the Bank of Japan hasn't actually done anything yet in 2013 - were enough to spark a 19% rally in the Nikkei Stock Average in the first quarter. That made Japanese stocks the best performers among developed economy stock markets, a big change from their reputation as dead money in a country mired in a long stagnation. If it does open the spigots of monetary easing, the Bank of Japan would join in with the Fed, the Banl of England, the Swiss National Bank and, to a lesser degree, the European Central Bank, with policies aimed squartely at the financial markets."
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Evenflow? I like that. Yeah, I think I'm cool like that.
With the C and S-fund down a bit and the European markets closed for a holiday, I'd say a negative FV is more probable than a +FV. But with the dollar down this much, we don't usually get a -FV. And, the Nikkei 300 sold off last night, so a bounce is more likely there.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.45%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.05%; EFA (I-fund): -1.32%.
Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.44% for the I-fund. There shouldn't be any FV, but if the TSP want to screw the I-funders who bailed out today, then we'd get one.
TNA lost -3.63% (YTD: +34.04%).
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
Scrappy
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 11
EFA is showing a loss of -1.12% for the I-fund right now, but my estimate for the MSCI EAFE is -0.37%. That's good if it sticks and no -FV, of course.
ebbnflow,
how are you estimating what the FV will be?
I am in the I for the first time since last year and have noticed an increase and larger values of FV lately but I have no knowledge to understand why. I got burned by FV in a short trade last month.
thanks,
Scrappy
rcknfrewld
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 8
Echoing scrappy here..how would you predict today's action so far or is it too soon
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
ebbnflow,
how are you estimating what the FV will be?
I am in the I for the first time since last year and have noticed an increase and larger values of FV lately but I have no knowledge to understand why. I got burned by FV in a short trade last month.
thanks,
Scrappy
Scrappy, FV depends on the dollar and market movement after the European markets close. To warrant a -/+ FV, it has to be at least half a percent.
rcknfrewld, my MSCI EAFE (I-fund) estimate right now is for a gain of +0.81%.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.52%; DWCPF (S-fund): -0.42%; EFA (I-fund): +1.12%.
Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.61% for the I-fund. "THEY KNOW NOTHiNG!" -- my best Jim Cramer impersonation. :blink:
TNA lost -1.39% (YTD: +32.17%).
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): -1.05%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.55%; EFA (I-fund): -0.51%.
Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.06% for the I-fund (expect a -FV). OH SNAP! -- Tracy Morgan. :blink:
TNA lost -5.18% (YTD: +25.33%).
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.40%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.59%; EFA (I-fund): +0.90%.
Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.00% for the I-fund. If we add Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55%, then Thursday's I-fund loss is -0.45%. But there's a 50/50 chance of a +FV (at least half a percent) tonight, so the I-fund could still wind up in positive territory. :blink:
TNA gained +2.47% (YTD: +28.42%).
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
bmneveu
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 49
Thanks for your work on this. I'm gonna be super pissed if the I fund posts a negative day when EFA was up almost a full 1%.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Yep, whatever +FV (buffer) the I-fund gets today, turns into a -FV (baggage) tomorrow.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 789
Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.55% was added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE of -1.00% (loss -0.45%). But due to the falling dollar and late market movement to the upside, a new FV of +1.07% got tacked onto the I-fund's final price (gain +0.62%). So tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -1.07% from the get-go.
Does this mean if the markets closed down -1% tomorrow and you bought into the I-Fund, that you'd get in at -2.07% (2 for the price of one?)- Status
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