I fund for September 2009

[Birchtree]

A weak dollar is actually welcomed because it will help the improvement in exports which drives the recovery in the manufacturing sector. Most are looking for strong increases in exports in the third quarter (6%) and the fourth quarter (11%).

 

[phil]

As I'm only in for about 16% in the I fund and 84% G, take my comments with a grain of salt. I'm a bit risk averse still in the market. Despite various bank failures, there's still a lot of liquidity in the marketplace, courtesy of the Fed, which may drive market prices up, particularly commodities.

What concerns me is September/October, usually a period of high volatility. Call it intuition, but I don't think the worst is over yet. We've seen the market rise, particularly the I fund in the past week, but it could just be another bubble.

Triple Witching is coming on the 3rd Friday of this month. I'm dumping out on the 16th-17th, heading back to G and probably a little F fund, depending on whether F tanks between now and the 16th. If it tanks a good deal, I'm in. Then I plan to buy back into I, depending on whether it goes down between 18-22 September.

It's a hunch, and it's probably completely illogical. I'm still risk averse. :worried:

I hardly ever gamble.

 

[Corvette]

Monday EAFE final of +$0.1324
plus Tuesday EAFE final of +$0.2693 = +$0.4017
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.4017
minus mystery money of -$0.0099 = +$0.3918 final

 

[Corvette]

Nice weak $

76 would be a 12 month low.
I may take some off the table if the dollar goes below 76. I am looking at 74.

 

[Corvette]

Wednesday EAFE estimate of +$0.1500
plus Wednesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.1500

dollar 77.08 down 0.25%

 

[Corvette]

Wednesday EAFE final of +$0.1500
plus Wednesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.1500
plus mystery money of +0.0021 = +$0.1521 final

 

[Corvette]

Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.0673
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0673

dollar 76.95 down 0.09%

 

[Corvette]

Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.0757
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0757

dollar 76.94 down 0.09%

 

[Corvette]

Thursday EAFE final of +$0.0895
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0895
plus Thursday FV (today) of +$0.0900 = +$0.1795
plus mystery money of +$0.0094 = +$0.1889 final

 

[Corvette]

Friday EAFE estimate of +$0.1270
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.0900 = +$0.0370

dollar 76.60 down 0.27%

 

[dannyboy]

Thursday EAFE final of +$0.0895
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0895
plus Thursday FV (today) of +$0.0900 = +$0.1795
plus mystery money of +$0.0094 = +$0.1889 final

I can not believe how well the I fund has been doing since March (or so?). I did not get in until a few moons later and I have been doing great! I kind of follow the Birch scheme of, C-65, I-35%'s, except backwards I-65,C-35%. It is kind of crazy, but What else is there for a crazy Irishman to do?
There are the elite 9 or so, I - 100%, on the tracker running away to new heights. I do not have my "balls to the walls" with 100%, for I know how volatile the I fund is. I can and I have lost 10's of 1000's overnight. :embarrest: I could ride it out, but I've got other things to do.

 

[Corvette]

Friday EAFE final of +$0.1390
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.0900 = +$0.0490
plus mystery money of +$0.0115 = +$0.0375 final

 

[James48843]

Nikkei down 2.3 percent

 

[Corvette]

Monday EAFE estimate of -$0.1361
plus Monday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.1361

dollar 76.69 up 0.10%

 

[phil]

I'm a little risk averse for Sept/October timeframe. Volatility during this period tends to be very high in the stock funds. Beware?:worried:

 

[Corvette]

Monday EAFE final of -$0.1361
plus Monday FV (previous day) of+$0.0000 = -$0.1361
plus mystery money of +$0.0014 = -$0.1347 final :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE estimate of -$0.0205
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of+$0.0000 = -$0.0205

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE final of -$0.0381
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of+$0.0000 = -$0.0381
plus Tuesday FV (guess) of +$0.0900 = +$0.0519

 

[phil]

Migrated back to G today. Lots of, as Rumsfeld said, unknown unknowns. Let's find the patient's pulse this week. :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE final of -$0.0381
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of+$0.0000 = -$0.0381
plus Tuesday FV (today) of +$0.1500 = +$0.1119
plus mystery money of +$0.0062 = +$0.1181 final