I Fund for October 2009

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Corvette said:
Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.2813
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.2813
Click to expand...

Just for informational purposes only. Why does the the tsplook-up show the I fund estimated down for about 50 cents and you you show it up by 28 estimated.? I follow your predictions but why is there such a variance between the 2 today. Based on your prediction if someone was in the G Fund today would not be a good day to buy in, but going on the tsplookup today would be a good day to buy in to the I fund.

Just for informational purposes....thanks for the help.
 
Watch the Nikkei tonight. It is way overdue for a surge. It has based out and IMO will explode to the upside. 10000 coming this month. Also DJIA 10,000 this month. ;)
 
12%ayear said:
Watch the Nikkei tonight. It is way overdue for a surge. It has based out and IMO will explode to the upside. 10000 coming this month. Also DJIA 10,000 this month. ;)
Click to expand...
Fingers crossed, but the "surge" will only be a bump...... Unless..........
 
Thursday EAFE final of +$0.3240
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.3240
minus mystery money of -$0.0031 = +$0.3209 final :)
 
buda said:
Just for informational purposes only. Why does the the tsplook-up show the I fund estimated down for about 50 cents and you you show it up by 28 estimated.? I follow your predictions but why is there such a variance between the 2 today. Based on your prediction if someone was in the G Fund today would not be a good day to buy in, but going on the tsplookup today would be a good day to buy in to the I fund.

Just for informational purposes....thanks for the help.
Click to expand...

I have not looked at tsplook-up in a long time. It is a clever estimate of each stock exchange in the I fund.
My data is a snapshot of the EAFE at the time of posting.
 
Question:

What's the short term economic effect on the I fund if the Chinese, Russians and Gulf states dump their dollars. I know it ends up putting pressure on interest rates in the long term, but I'd like to know where the I fund goes if the dollar suddenly gets a LOT cheaper.

I'm still not sure of the validity of the posting from Fisk in Beirut, or whether it's simply market reaction to the story right now.
 
If the dollar tanks, the I fund value goes up significantly. Japan accounts for about 25% of the I fund, and the European DAX, CAC and FSTE make up the lion's share of the rest. A weaker dollar against the Yen, the Euro, and the Pound mean the value of I increases, even if the shares underlying them remain flat.

The converse is true as well. Should there be some sudden event worldwide, and a flee INTO the dollar, the dollar's value goes up, and the I fund price would go down.

That's part of the risk you have to factor into your decision relating to how much "I" fund to hold.


Note: Fisk's story is simply rumor. (Fisk reported that the major oil nations are considering dumping the dollar as the oil currency, and replacing it with a market basket of other currencies. )That rumor was discussed and discredited months ago elsewhere. Fisk just made that up for some unknown motive. It would be too difficult to try and do- there is really no value in it. The Russians are the ones who floated that idea some months ago, and it fell flat.
 
James48843 said:
If the dollar tanks, the I fund value goes up significantly. Japan accounts for about 25% of the I fund, and the European DAX, CAC and FSTE make up the lion's share of the rest. A weaker dollar against the Yen, the Euro, and the Pound mean the value of I increases, even if the shares underlying them remain flat.

The converse is true as well. Should there be some sudden event worldwide, and a flee INTO the dollar, the dollar's value goes up, and the I fund price would go down.

That's part of the risk you have to factor into your decision relating to how much "I" fund to hold.
Click to expand...

I am not sure if the dollar tanks, the I fund will go up. The foreign markets may also tank. The I fund may just go down less than the USA markets.

So far, the bottom is holding for the dollar. If it drops, I am selling if the I fund goes up.
 
Friday EAFE estimate of -$0.0425
plus Friday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.0425

dollar = 76.45 up 0.63%
 
I keep hearing that the dollar may tank, though it's hard to imagine. The Fisk story keeps coming back up again. Psychological pressure on dollar?
 
I think the dollar will keep falling as long as we keep interest rates low. Then I think once we raise our interest rates, things will stable out. I don't think other countries are just going to dump dollars. It would cause a meltdown in all markets. They might sell them off slowly over 10-20 yrs though and keep pressure on the dollar. But who knows, and what do I know?
 
Note: Japan stock markets are closed Monday, October 12.

It's a national holiday in Japan.

Oct. 12 Health and Sports Day


 
Friday EAFE final of -$0.0425
plus Friday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.0425
minus mystery money of -$0.0025 = -$0.0450 final :worried:
 
Monday EAFE estimate of +$0.1130
plus Monday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.1130

dollar = 76.05 down 0.34%
 
Monday EAFE final of +$0.1130
plus Monday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.1130
minus Tuesday EAFE estimate of -$0.0722 = +$0.0408

dollar = 75.95 down 0.23%
 
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