I Fund for October 2009

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE estimate of +$0.0119
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0119

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE final of +$0.0119
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0119
minus mystery money of -$0.0015 = +$0.0104 final

 

[Corvette]

Wednesday EAFE estimate of +$0.0877
plus Wednesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0877

 

[Corvette]

Wednesday EAFE final of +$0.0847
plus Wednesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = +$0.0847
minus Wednesday FV (today) of -$0.1500 = -$0.0653
minus mystery money of -$0.0070 = -$0.0723 final :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Thursday EAFE estimate of -$0.1931
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.1500 = -$0.0431

 

[fedgolfer]

Thursday EAFE estimate of -$0.1931
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.1500 = -$0.0431

so we're looking at some retuned FV yesteerday plus some for this afternoon +.50 pop since noon, minus the US$ gain?

 

[Corvette]

Thursday EAFE final of -$0.2006
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.1500 = -$0.0606
plus Thursday FV (today) of +$0.1600 = +$0.1006
plus mystery money of +$0.0094 = +$0.1088 final

dollar move is making the FV amounts looked skewed

 

[Corvette]

Friday EAFE estimate of -$0.0802
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.1600 = -$0.2402

 

[Corvette]

so we're looking at some retuned FV yesteerday plus some for this afternoon +.50 pop since noon, minus the US$ gain?

They added a big FV yesterday due to a late dollar drop.
Today the dollar is up so EAFE is down.
That is a lot of downside for the I fund today.

 

[Corvette]

Friday EAFE final of -$0.0802
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.1600 = -$0.2402
plus mystery money of +$0.0087 = -$0.2315 final :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Monday EAFE estimate of -$0.1978
plus Monday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.1978

 

[phil]

I'm still a bit averse to the high market volatility right now. I'm still not ready to jump in with both feet, but will accumulate steadily over time.

 

[Corvette]

Monday EAFE final of -$0.1978
plus Monday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.1978
minus Monday FV (today) of -$0.1600 = -$0.3578
minus mystery money of -$0.0002 = -$0.3580 final :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE estimate of -$0.1850
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of +$0.1600 = -$0.0250

 

[phil]

The I fund is starting to look tempting, I must admit. I may wait a bit still to see when to jump in. The FTSE has started way lower this morning.

 

[Corvette]

Tuesday EAFE final of -$0.1790
plus Tuesday FV (previous day) of +$0.1600 = -$0.0190
plus mystery money of -$0.0018 = -$0.0172 final :worried:

 

[Corvette]

Wednesday EAFE estimate of -$0.3348
plus Wednesday FV (previous day) of +$0.0000 = -$0.3348

 

[phil]

Looks like a big drop today. I think I'll still wait a bit longer. Does anyone have a good feel for this market in the near short-term?

I'm pretty clueless about where the dollar is heading. It's as if there's no market intelligence, just rumors.

 

[Birchtree]

The dollar is simply experiencing a technical bounce the last five days because everyone in the world was so negative. It will however continue to soften until the Fed starts to raise the discount rate sometime in 2011. The I fund will continue to make gains because large caps are entering favor - but the I fund will no longer outperform because the euro is going to hurt their export earnings. The place to be going forward is the C fund where 50% of their earnings come from a weak dollar as an advantage in their exports overseas. That's my take. The SPX has now experienced a 5% correction and this market should be bought if you think we are in a new bull market. Using an average of 5.8% for the previous seven pullbacks would establish a target SPX bottom of 1037. We nailed 1042.63 today. The fear level has spiked with the VIX now at 27.94 +3.11 today. That's what a bull likes to see. Another golden opportunity has arrived.

 

[phil]

I'll wait for a plunge, I think, before I go in big. Today's market loss for DJ was only 1.2%, but the I was over 2%. For now, I'll just accumulate with new money coming in, just to be safe. I dumped out mid-September. I can't forget last year's mad October. If EAFE gets down to 31 again.......

Banks are still begging for capital. Citi had to recently borrow another 4.5 billion from some of its own bondholders.