Handballer
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 12
I am back! Made a little money today.
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I am losing money!!!
- Thread starter funkyhunky
- Start date
funkyhunky
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 1
I have decided to just do the same IFT's as the top people in the public autotracker. We'll see how this works out over the next year
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 363
Eh...
Your current allocation will swing wildly. It is a very risky allocation. My guess is that your sleep test will not accept those swings. You have done well recently with swing trades but you didn't stick out the temporary 8% decline in September/October. Please understand that your current allocation will swing significantly and quickly. You really have no uncorrelated assets. Both the C and S funds will likely move more or less together. And, you are buying high. All will be good till it isn't.
Why not set and forget 75% - 80% of your assets in a more scientific allocation and swing the remaining. Especially if you cannot read charts and you cannot find your crystal ball. Try to get a 2% edge on the S&P500 - especially if you are younger. By younger I mean from your twenties through your forties... Geezers like me (50) should have a more stable account (but don't look now :laugh
. If you could hold your risk to 10% rather than the current 15% you will not participate in rapid and destructive crashes. Do you really think you could sleep through a -8% day. Expect it with your allocation.
Again, I recommend Ric Edelman's 'The Lies About Money' and 'The Truth About Money'. Understand, he thinks swing trading is market timing and is therefore money losing. I'm not fully in his camp, so I found a few allocations based on market conditions. I then set my account to the 'proper' allocation and change that allocation on the edges to get risk effective edge. I have no desire to participate in a 57% correction.
Your current allocation will swing wildly. It is a very risky allocation. My guess is that your sleep test will not accept those swings. You have done well recently with swing trades but you didn't stick out the temporary 8% decline in September/October. Please understand that your current allocation will swing significantly and quickly. You really have no uncorrelated assets. Both the C and S funds will likely move more or less together. And, you are buying high. All will be good till it isn't.
Why not set and forget 75% - 80% of your assets in a more scientific allocation and swing the remaining. Especially if you cannot read charts and you cannot find your crystal ball. Try to get a 2% edge on the S&P500 - especially if you are younger. By younger I mean from your twenties through your forties... Geezers like me (50) should have a more stable account (but don't look now :laugh
. If you could hold your risk to 10% rather than the current 15% you will not participate in rapid and destructive crashes. Do you really think you could sleep through a -8% day. Expect it with your allocation.Again, I recommend Ric Edelman's 'The Lies About Money' and 'The Truth About Money'. Understand, he thinks swing trading is market timing and is therefore money losing. I'm not fully in his camp, so I found a few allocations based on market conditions. I then set my account to the 'proper' allocation and change that allocation on the edges to get risk effective edge. I have no desire to participate in a 57% correction.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 363
Let me second BirchTree. Look at the 2008 performance for those that have been here that long. However, understand that folks that have been here that long may trade different now simply because of their investment horizon (time till retirement). Good investors could get hammered in 2008 if they were in their 30's and 40's and still hold the line. Good investors could get hammered in 2008 if TSP was just the risk part of their investments as a whole. Take a peek at 2009 to see if they got off the mat effectively.
This issues with investment horizon and the effect contributions are black boxes here. I think Burro is kinda breaking through, but folks don't like to let that stuff out. It is an important element in setting your allocation. For example, if this were 2007 I would be 7 years younger and likely have no bonds and no cash in TSP during a rising market. Now, I would have cash and bonds. Seven years ago I SWAGed, now I try to take the guesswork out.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
Been there 5 times, my daughter lives there always spend 3 nights in a casino [comped] have a good time but never won a penny!You ahead 7.47% this year. I may ask you for some investment advice.:embarrest: But it will have to wait cause I'm geting ready to go to the airport then Sin City. Gee I love that town.
funkyhunky
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 1
After a -4% return last year I AM +1% in the autotracker!!
Got the market completely figured out, I am pretty much the wolf of wall street now
Got the market completely figured out, I am pretty much the wolf of wall street now
felixthecat
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 41
- AutoTracker
After a -4% return last year I AM +1% in the autotracker!!
Got the market completely figured out, I am pretty much the wolf of wall street now
Nice job! Your perseverance is paying off. Stick to that "I'm on top attitude" and you should be good.
wavecoder
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 24
You don't lose money until you sell. I rode out purchases that had me at -40%+ that eventually went to +50% when it was time to sell. Sometimes the best thing to do is not caring what the market does (takes practice). When you sell as a knee-jerk, that's the best way to lock in losses.
WorkFE
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 516
Very good Sniper.
Its always good to be reminded that losing money is something WE cause (controllable), losing value is something the market causes (uncontrollable).
The same number of shares are still there unless you bought some more through payroll allocation or you conducted an ill advised IFT. (something I am often guilty of).
Sometimes we are our own worst enemies.
Its always good to be reminded that losing money is something WE cause (controllable), losing value is something the market causes (uncontrollable).
The same number of shares are still there unless you bought some more through payroll allocation or you conducted an ill advised IFT. (something I am often guilty of).
Sometimes we are our own worst enemies.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 363
If you rode the Great Depression from start to finish you would have been in trouble...
The S&P500 (or equivalent) lost something like 90% from peak to trough.
But, if you accept a noise decline (say 7%) and buy on that dip.
Then, start stepping out of risk after further 7% declines.
You would have been at less risk as things failed.
But, would have something left to grow when things got better.
Personally, years like 2008 are not so hard to deal with. Just step back at a measured pace. It is harder getting back into the market. If you start buying back in too early (which I did) you can watch another 10% decline in a couple of day. If you get back in way too late (Amoeba) then every 1% decline enforces your opinion that the Great Depression is ongoing. However, if you still have something in the market you will catch at least some of the boom up when it happens. You will feel better allocating more risk at that point than those chaps huddled in little dark caves and sitting on underground Lilly Pad pools. And if things are smiling a little bit than folks like BT brighten the day and a thousand points of light illuminate the joy of life...
The S&P500 (or equivalent) lost something like 90% from peak to trough.
But, if you accept a noise decline (say 7%) and buy on that dip.
Then, start stepping out of risk after further 7% declines.
You would have been at less risk as things failed.
But, would have something left to grow when things got better.
Personally, years like 2008 are not so hard to deal with. Just step back at a measured pace. It is harder getting back into the market. If you start buying back in too early (which I did) you can watch another 10% decline in a couple of day. If you get back in way too late (Amoeba) then every 1% decline enforces your opinion that the Great Depression is ongoing. However, if you still have something in the market you will catch at least some of the boom up when it happens. You will feel better allocating more risk at that point than those chaps huddled in little dark caves and sitting on underground Lilly Pad pools. And if things are smiling a little bit than folks like BT brighten the day and a thousand points of light illuminate the joy of life...
Good points Boghie, it takes discipline. There will undoubtedly be future corrections and this board and TSP has given me more sense of control. In 2008/2009, and likewise in my whole TSP history (2004) I did nothing. Fatalistically, I just saw it go down, still contributing and eventually it came up, with my accnt. eventually the better. Now, doing an IFT is easier than rolling off a log, (hopefully) with my accnt. the better.
maui21ice
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
If you have it figured out completely, I expect about a 50% gain from you this year!I AM +1% in the autotracker!!
Got the market completely figured out...
Best of luck the next 11 months of the year!Similar threads
