The Dow spent about 95% of the day in negative territory on Friday, but the late rally pushed it to a 6-point gain by the end of the day. The small caps had a nice day and it may have been because of a rebalancing of the Russell Indices at the close.
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The dollar was down sharply on Friday, but the I-fund was held back by weakness in the Nikkei.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is hitting the bottom of a rising parallel trading channel (red) and this week's market tone may be determined by whether or not that support holds early in the week. It is a holiday shortened week and there is an historical positive bias.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 had a big day on Friday and volume was very high because of the rebalancing, which is done every year. This chart looks good, but it will be interesting to see if Friday's strength will hold on Monday, since it was not a "normal" day for the Russell indices.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The I-fund lagged last week, even though the dollar has been declining steadily recently.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As I mentioned above, one reasons was because Japan's Nikkei lost 1.4% on the day. Last I checked, the Nikkei makes up abut 25% of our I-fund.
If you missed it on Friday, here's the July seasonality chart. It looks a little choppy but over all there a lot more green than red.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The performance surrounding the Fourth of July shows quite a bit of positive action with some red leading up to the holiday. Today (Monday) is trading day # -4.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The IEF bond ETF chart is still rebounding of the 50-day EMA and looking a lot better than it had, but there is a lot of resistance in this area so again I am reluctant to be a buyer here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Instead of the normal Friday release, the June jobs report will be announced on Thursday this week, because of the holiday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 210,000 non-farm payroll jobs, and an unemployment rate of 6.3%. We have a "Guess the jobs report" contest going on in the forum. Click here for more information.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
