12/26/12
Stocks bucked the normally positive trend of Christmas Eve trading, and volume was extremely light in Monday's decline. The Dow lost 52-points on the day.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0107%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Monday's action was a blip on the S&P 500 chart - holding above both the Friday low and the 20-day EMA. Not much of a change technically here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Christmas Eve (or the final trading day before the observed federal holiday if Christmas falls on a weekend) has historically been positive about 70% of the time. The market showed us why we still play the game because nothing is a guarantee. The loss on Monday was one of those that went into the 30% loss column.
Today, day +1 after the holiday, is up over 65% of the time so historically there is about a 2 to 1 chance we'll see gains.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As we've mentioned many times here, this year's holiday season comes with the country hanging over the precipice of a fiscal cliff, and there's just a few trading days left for investors to cash in on the lower long-term capital gains tax rates. Come next Wednesday all sales go into the higher tax bracket, so that could have an affect on the normally positive action between Christmas and New Year's Day. But if you remember the data I showed of the last time capital gains rates were being increased (1986 - 1987), the market saw a gigantic gain in January after a weaker than normal December.
We'll have a little better idea of what is happening after today's action, despite it being holiday and end of the month and year action, which can have a "window dressing" influence to it.
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. We will be rolling over the 2012 AutoTracker accounts into 2013 so if you don't already have an account on the AutoTracker and wish to be on it in 2013, now would be a good time to get started. You do need to have a Forum account to get on the AutoTracker. For more information on how to get started, click here. (If you have an active AutoTracker account, you do not need to join again.)
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks bucked the normally positive trend of Christmas Eve trading, and volume was extremely light in Monday's decline. The Dow lost 52-points on the day.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0107%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Monday's action was a blip on the S&P 500 chart - holding above both the Friday low and the 20-day EMA. Not much of a change technically here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Christmas Eve (or the final trading day before the observed federal holiday if Christmas falls on a weekend) has historically been positive about 70% of the time. The market showed us why we still play the game because nothing is a guarantee. The loss on Monday was one of those that went into the 30% loss column.
Today, day +1 after the holiday, is up over 65% of the time so historically there is about a 2 to 1 chance we'll see gains.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As we've mentioned many times here, this year's holiday season comes with the country hanging over the precipice of a fiscal cliff, and there's just a few trading days left for investors to cash in on the lower long-term capital gains tax rates. Come next Wednesday all sales go into the higher tax bracket, so that could have an affect on the normally positive action between Christmas and New Year's Day. But if you remember the data I showed of the last time capital gains rates were being increased (1986 - 1987), the market saw a gigantic gain in January after a weaker than normal December.
We'll have a little better idea of what is happening after today's action, despite it being holiday and end of the month and year action, which can have a "window dressing" influence to it.
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. We will be rolling over the 2012 AutoTracker accounts into 2013 so if you don't already have an account on the AutoTracker and wish to be on it in 2013, now would be a good time to get started. You do need to have a Forum account to get on the AutoTracker. For more information on how to get started, click here. (If you have an active AutoTracker account, you do not need to join again.)
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
