6/29/12
Stocks opened lower yesterday after getting the latest GDP numbers and initial jobless claims. Neither were very strong and close enough to estimates, but things went south after the healthcare ruling was announced.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD][TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.13%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.01%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A late rally took the indices well off of their lows and we ended the day with just minor losses as the Dow gave up 25-points after being down nearly 180-points just a couple of hours earlier.
The S&P 500 was down well over 1% at one point, but the 200-day EMA held and it is now back testing the 50-day EMA and the old neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sharp turnaround yesterday created a possible reversal day and there is a tendency to see some upward follow through after this kind of reversal.
The Nasdaq chart looks similar but there is another case for a test of the head of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, where a gap still sits open.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index actually had a strong day being up 0.8%, but it closed just below the 200-day EMA, so the test for a reversal day begins right away.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As we talked about yesterday, July is generally a pretty good month, although it can be volatile. Unfortunately, August and September are two of the worst months of the year so should we see some gains in July, we may want to take profits when we can.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Here is another look at the historical performance sounding the 4th of July.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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