09/15/25
Stocks were mostly flat on Friday, trading in a tight range with some late selling that took the S&P 500 into negative territory for the day, but the tech heavy Nasdaq held onto moderate gains. Small caps lagged with yields moving up, which also left the F-fund with a modest loss.
It was a solid week for the market last week with the Nasdaq posting 5-straght gains, and the S&P 500 only down on Friday with that 0.05% loss. Small caps took a step back from their recent comeback, and after Friday's 1% loss, it is lagging the other stock funds for the month as we reach the half-way point in September, which has done well considering its reputation.
We get the retail sales data on Tuesday and then of course the Fed FOMC meeting, policy statement, and decision on interest rates on Wednesday. The Fed will also release its quarterly "dot plot" which are projections for the path of interest rates.
As we have been discussing, the market's reaction to the Fed may depend on how much information we get from Powell regarding future cuts, which continue to get priced into the stock market, and it could either set up a sell the news reaction, or the market continue to feed off the loosening monetary policy.
The 10-year Treasury Yield rebounded modestly on Friday, and the dollar was also up, but closed at its lows of the day.
This UUP chart has been toying with us for months as it looks like the dollar, which had fallen precipitously from January to April, has been stabilizing since. Whether it is forming a long term bottom or just coiling before another leg down, will likely determine the direction of the stock market and commodities for the rest of the year, especially the I-fund.
The S&P 500 / C-fund made another new all-time high on Friday before selling off late and falling slightly into negative territory. It did hit the top of its trading channel that may be resistance, but the resistance is rising.
Today and Tuesday's action could be choppy heading into Wednesday's Fed meeting, and while the bulls remain fully in charge, the chart shows the potential for a short-term overbought sell off.
I'll make this quick today since so much is up in the air and dependent on the Fed this week. The Fed is likely going to stay professional but with the discontentment between the president and the Fed going on, who knows how this will go?
The DWCPF* (S-fund) underperformed the large caps on Friday and all week last week, but at +0.55%, it still had a decent gain for the week. There is an open gap down near 2470 that may cause some volatility, and with the Fed talking interest rates, volatility in small caps would not be a surprise.
* There is a bad quote that occurred on DWCPF on September 3rd of 20,000 and it has distorted the chart, so until they fix that, this chart will be a 5-minute chart spanning just a few days.
ACWX (I-fund) came just off its all time highs on Friday as it, like many other charts, is flirting with the top end of a rising trading channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) broke out above its trading channel recently, and since then it has used that old resistance line as support. There is still a large open gap near 74 which makes betting on the upside a little more risky in the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mostly flat on Friday, trading in a tight range with some late selling that took the S&P 500 into negative territory for the day, but the tech heavy Nasdaq held onto moderate gains. Small caps lagged with yields moving up, which also left the F-fund with a modest loss.
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It was a solid week for the market last week with the Nasdaq posting 5-straght gains, and the S&P 500 only down on Friday with that 0.05% loss. Small caps took a step back from their recent comeback, and after Friday's 1% loss, it is lagging the other stock funds for the month as we reach the half-way point in September, which has done well considering its reputation.
We get the retail sales data on Tuesday and then of course the Fed FOMC meeting, policy statement, and decision on interest rates on Wednesday. The Fed will also release its quarterly "dot plot" which are projections for the path of interest rates.
As we have been discussing, the market's reaction to the Fed may depend on how much information we get from Powell regarding future cuts, which continue to get priced into the stock market, and it could either set up a sell the news reaction, or the market continue to feed off the loosening monetary policy.
The 10-year Treasury Yield rebounded modestly on Friday, and the dollar was also up, but closed at its lows of the day.
This UUP chart has been toying with us for months as it looks like the dollar, which had fallen precipitously from January to April, has been stabilizing since. Whether it is forming a long term bottom or just coiling before another leg down, will likely determine the direction of the stock market and commodities for the rest of the year, especially the I-fund.
The S&P 500 / C-fund made another new all-time high on Friday before selling off late and falling slightly into negative territory. It did hit the top of its trading channel that may be resistance, but the resistance is rising.
Today and Tuesday's action could be choppy heading into Wednesday's Fed meeting, and while the bulls remain fully in charge, the chart shows the potential for a short-term overbought sell off.
I'll make this quick today since so much is up in the air and dependent on the Fed this week. The Fed is likely going to stay professional but with the discontentment between the president and the Fed going on, who knows how this will go?
The DWCPF* (S-fund) underperformed the large caps on Friday and all week last week, but at +0.55%, it still had a decent gain for the week. There is an open gap down near 2470 that may cause some volatility, and with the Fed talking interest rates, volatility in small caps would not be a surprise.
* There is a bad quote that occurred on DWCPF on September 3rd of 20,000 and it has distorted the chart, so until they fix that, this chart will be a 5-minute chart spanning just a few days.
ACWX (I-fund) came just off its all time highs on Friday as it, like many other charts, is flirting with the top end of a rising trading channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) broke out above its trading channel recently, and since then it has used that old resistance line as support. There is still a large open gap near 74 which makes betting on the upside a little more risky in the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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