11/11/25
Stocks rallied sharply on Monday, breaking the pullback's down trend in the process, and improving many of the charts.
[Head smack!] Out of habit, I started my commentary and gathered some charts after the market close on Monday, completely forgetting that today (Tuesday) is a federal holiday and the TSP is closed. I usually take the day off. Well, I started it, so here's a little something. Enjoy your holiday and we'll see you back here on Wednesday!
While the deal in the Senate over the government shutdown is being given the credit, the market actually started the rally just after noon ET on Friday. Sometimes the market tells us the news before the even takes place. Either that, or this rally had nothing to do with the shutdown, which is very possible.
On the bullish side, the S&P 500 is less than 1% from an all-time high, yet fear and bearishness we've seen lately is as if we've been in a bear market. From a contrarian viewpoint, that is bullish.
On the bearish side, the small caps may be feeling a little extra pressure because of the more hawkish outlook on interest rates, and although the S-fund had a decent gain on Monday, there was an odd sell off in small caps in the final hour that did not show up in the C and I-funds.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) broke out above its descending channel and the channel held, but it did leave a big open gap in its wake.
From tsp.gov: Holiday Closing
"Some financial markets will be closed on Tuesday, November 11, in observance of Veterans Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (November 11) will be processed Wednesday night (November 12), at Wednesday's closing share prices."
Charts for COB Monday 11/10:
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund):
ACWX (I-fund):
BND (bonds / F-fund):
Thanks for reading! And a big thank you to our military for all you do to keep us safe! Happy Veteran's Day! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied sharply on Monday, breaking the pullback's down trend in the process, and improving many of the charts.
[Head smack!] Out of habit, I started my commentary and gathered some charts after the market close on Monday, completely forgetting that today (Tuesday) is a federal holiday and the TSP is closed. I usually take the day off. Well, I started it, so here's a little something. Enjoy your holiday and we'll see you back here on Wednesday!
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While the deal in the Senate over the government shutdown is being given the credit, the market actually started the rally just after noon ET on Friday. Sometimes the market tells us the news before the even takes place. Either that, or this rally had nothing to do with the shutdown, which is very possible.
On the bullish side, the S&P 500 is less than 1% from an all-time high, yet fear and bearishness we've seen lately is as if we've been in a bear market. From a contrarian viewpoint, that is bullish.
On the bearish side, the small caps may be feeling a little extra pressure because of the more hawkish outlook on interest rates, and although the S-fund had a decent gain on Monday, there was an odd sell off in small caps in the final hour that did not show up in the C and I-funds.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) broke out above its descending channel and the channel held, but it did leave a big open gap in its wake.
From tsp.gov: Holiday Closing
"Some financial markets will be closed on Tuesday, November 11, in observance of Veterans Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (November 11) will be processed Wednesday night (November 12), at Wednesday's closing share prices."
Charts for COB Monday 11/10:
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund):
ACWX (I-fund):
BND (bonds / F-fund):
Thanks for reading! And a big thank you to our military for all you do to keep us safe! Happy Veteran's Day! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
