Gut Check

Gut Check
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If you've bought in at the recent top and have had the misfortune of riding the last three days down, you might be getting worried. As it stands right now, my perspective tells me this is nothing more than an overbought correction within the 6-month window. Charts are like people, when they get overextended, they need to take a breather, and gather up their energy for the next move. I try not to predict prices because I know I'll be wrong the majority of the time, so let me tell you what I do know.

The Transports are are within a recent 5 year, 1 year, year-to-date, 6-month, 3-month, 1-month, and 1-week high. The price is always right are your expectations inline with the trend? Within the chart below, we've yet to pull back more than 25% of the high/low range across multiple measurements I use, I consider this to be a healthy chart.


Watch for a reversal in the dollar, and for bonds to provide confirmation for the inverse direction of stocks.

Take care and trade safe...Jason

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A voice of reason amidst the panic...nice analysis Jason.

For those now in...the only wrong move would be to sell now. All anyone would be doing would be locking in a loss...and burning a move.

Being greedy and buying high followed by panicking and selling low never grew anyone's portfolio.

 

[JTH]

A voice of reason amidst the panic...nice analysis Jason.

Thx FWM, I trust the transports above all other indexes, this can be a pivotal moment, I'd like to see it work out for the better.

 

[coolhand]

I don't see any panic in the sentiment polls. There's little fear. And that can be problematic.

A voice of reason amidst the panic...nice analysis Jason.

For those now in...the only wrong move would be to sell now. All anyone would be doing would be locking in a loss...and burning a move.

Being greedy and buying high followed by panicking and selling low never grew anyone's portfolio.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I don't see any panic in the sentiment polls. There's little fear. And that can be problematic.

I don't know CH...I guess it depends on how one views "fear"...or lack of.

I look at our current Sentiment Survey and I see more bears (44%) than bulls (39%).

Is that not some "fear" that could keep this market going?

 

[coolhand]

Emotion fluctuates constantly. Right now I'd say "anxiety" may be where we are at. Here's an emotion chart that helps define our emotions as the market goes through its cycles.

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm

I don't know CH...I guess it depends on how one views "fear"...or lack of.

I look at our current Sentiment Survey and I see more bears (44%) than bulls (39%).

Is that not some "fear" that could keep this market going?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Hey, I liked that link.

The oldest and truest of all analytical tools.

But my "panic" belief remains...and my question is where on the cycle were we during the last 90 min?
Looked like somewhere between "Panic" and "Depression". A little "flash crash redux"? Oil crashing below $100? Gold Silver plunging also? Dollar surging upward.

JT, Cool or anyone...any insight? Can't seem to find anything definitive on the news wires.

 

[coolhand]

This is a long term chart FWM. It's not particularly useful in the short term.

Hey, I liked that link.

The oldest and truest of all analytical tools.

But my "panic" belief remains...and my question is where on the cycle were we during the last 90 min?
Looked like somewhere between "Panic" and "Depression". A little "flash crash redux"? Oil crashing below $100? Gold Silver plunging also? Dollar surging upward.

JT, Cool or anyone...any insight? Can't seem to find anything definitive on the news wires.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Jeeze CH...I know that (lol)

I was just trying to interject some humor into the mix and just reiterate that the "panic" I was refering to was short term.

Invest in a sense of humor my friend.

 

[coolhand]

I don't think the folks who got in at the top have much of a sense of humor about now. In fact, they're probably the ones who'll agree with your panic statement.

Jeeze CH...I know that (lol)

I was just trying to interject some humor into the mix and just reiterate that the "panic" I was refering to was short term.

Invest in a sense of humor my friend.