Griffin Account Talk

[clester]

Have any thoughts about the I fund?
Thanks

 

[Griffin]

Have any thoughts about the I fund?
Thanks

Unfortuantely, with this kind of volatility, you have no way of predicting how much and which direction an FV could go on any given day. I'm not willing to even venture a guess on what is a good buy in point.

 

[airlift]

Griffin,
Only a few words of praise. I might be wrong, but today so far your 100%S decision appears to be the right one. As I recall, you were expecting a drop this PM, but it is rallying. However, not to worry, because the Nasdaq and the SPX are also rallying. Perhaps tomorrow will be stellar for the EMW (S fund). In addition, your concern of the SPX dropping to the 1410-1420 range seems to be assuaged. Great!

 

[ATCJeff]

Griffin,
Only a few words of praise. I might be wrong, but today so far your 100%S decision appears to be the right one. As I recall, you were expecting a drop this PM, but it is rallying. However, not to worry, because the Nasdaq and the SPX are also rallying. Perhaps tomorrow will be stellar for the EMW (S fund). In addition, your concern of the SPX dropping to the 1410-1420 range seems to be assuaged. Great!

Yea but I'm sure Griffin would love to buy in at Friday's prices. WOW, what a day. I can't remember anytime frame where we have had this much movement back and forth. Amazing.... Some people are feeling major whipsaw!

BTW, my 1000th post. Seems like just yesterday I was joining this great group of people. Thanks Tom.

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm hoping to close on the day's lows.

S fund didn't close on the lows, but severely underperformed the rest of the market. Is that akin to closing on the lows?

 

[airlift]

I responed instinctively to Griffin's analysis, though I failed to acknowledge that last friday Mayday went 100S, and others like Ed the Fed also went 100% S. Great day!

Yea but I'm sure Griffin would love to buy in at Friday's prices. WOW, what a day. I can't remember anytime frame where we have had this much movement back and forth. Amazing.... Some people are feeling major whipsaw!

BTW, my 1000th post. Seems like just yesterday I was that joining this great group of people. Thanks Tom.

 

[Griffin]

I want to see if the market can accept some good news from the financial sector and not scoff in disbelief.

I got my news and a supporting rally and I happen to be buying in today to the Wilshire which is up only .82%. Yippeee.

Granted this was all buying programs from the big boys, but it should be enough to spark a global/market wide rally (hopefully) at least to some intermediate level of resistance. Small and Medium caps will participate shortly.

this is from Yahoo's market commentary -

An analyst upgrade on Merrill Lynch (MER 74.50 +4.45) at UBS, which said the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in MER's valuation, was the driving catalyst. Morgan Stanley saying insurance stocks are down unjustifiably and Wells Fargo (WFC 34.72 +1.91) approving a 50 mln share buyback intraday also helped restore confidence throughout the battered sector.

PS Guys - I was feeling brilliant at 1:00 pm when it looked like it was going to roll back over!, and you have to admit at 10:00 am this morning, buying in on Friday wasn't looking like a slick move. There is the potential to make + or - 150% in any year - so to get a great return, you only need to be excatly right a few times or mostly right most of the time .

 

[Griffin]

Very Interesting:

Market Change %, TSP Change %, FV (or other nonsuch)
C-(16.02-16.41) 2.42, 2.32 -.10
S-(19.21-19.41) .82 1.04 +.20
I -(23.64-24.06) -.63 1.77 +2.40%

TSP Has lost their freakin' minds

There is no doubt that they are playing games with the prices to account for movement in and out of the funds.

That FV in the I-fund is way beyond anything reasonable.....there is absolutely no way in heaven and earth, that the OSMs will make up 2.40% at the open - that is an impossible gap up especially considering that today's move was all theatre.......TSP should get an Oscar along with Cramer and the boys at Bear Stearns.

 

[350zCommTech]

Griffin,

Please see the I fund thread.

 

[Bullitt]

Paladin: Don't forget that some financial stocks pay huge divy's. Value investors are stepping up big time to get that 4-5% yield.

 

[Griffin]

S fund didn't close on the lows, but severely underperformed the rest of the market. Is that akin to closing on the lows?

Yesterday should have been the low - I think we can see that from the lack of follow through we are already seeing. Can't win 'em all, especially when the big boys get together to manipulate the market in their favor.

To answer your question - it's as close to as closing on the low as I can hope for, given the volatility.

From the multi-year perspective, I'm still bullish, but I also recognize that we could be at a turning point into a multi year bear market. Even still, I believe the financials can bail themselves out (without the Fed's help) eventually and it will be a good lesson learned for them, they deserve it. Hell, the twenty trees that were cut down to make all the mortgage offers I recieved the past six years alone justify some spanking.

As a nation, we need to be focused on the Baby Boomer retirement wave, this is the ultimate socialogical/economic timebomb that is ticking, and inflation is what is going to set it off.

 

[FundSurfer]

As a nation, we need to be focused on the Baby Boomer retirement wave, this is the ultimate socialogical/economic timebomb that is ticking, and inflation is what is going to set it off.

From an investment standpoint, you have to wonder what will happen when we cross a point when more baby boomers are drawing out save retirement money than are frantically trying to add during the final decade prior to retirement. I think that is when we will see a definite change in stock market behavior.

 

[Griffin]

From an investment standpoint, you have to wonder what will happen when we cross a point when more baby boomers are drawing out save retirement money than are frantically trying to add during the final decade prior to retirement. I think that is when we will see a definite change in stock market behavior.

- They started turning 60 last year
- 62 for social security
- Two year slump in the housing market - perfect time to cash out some investments and start construction on your gated community retirement home.
- apply a little linear regression and you probably end up with something close to 4 years from now.

You may want to shift your investments away from health care and into golf clubs in a few years - the contrarian play .

 

[Griffin]

A thought occurred to me -

Suppose your the financials and you want to embarass the Fed into cutting rates. First you pump every market pundit and CEO to make a spectacle about why the Fed needs to cut, then you execute a giant buyback program the day before the Fed meeting and if the Fed doesn't give you what you want, you sell with the intention of driving the market lower to make the Fed look like the bad guy.

I was thinking these guys were desperate to keep the market afloat, but maybe they are more interested in embarassing the Fed. Quite frankly, I don't think Bernake will blink, and they will only create a buying opportunity. But this could get real ugly real quick, hopefully they will not try and push this to the all important psychologically 10% correction level.

 

[wv-girl]

A thought occurred to me -

Suppose your the financials and you want to embarass the Fed into cutting rates. First you pump every market pundit and CEO to make a spectacle about why the Fed needs to cut, then you execute a giant buyback program the day before the Fed meeting and if the Fed doesn't give you what you want, you sell with the intention of driving the market lower to make the Fed look like the bad guy.

I was thinking these guys were desperate to keep the market afloat, but maybe they are more interested in embarassing the Fed. Quite frankly, I don't think Bernake will blink, and they will only create a buying opportunity. But this could get real ugly real quick, hopefully they will not try and push this to the all important psychologically 10% correction level.

Does this mean you are re-thinking your jump in the I fund?

 

[JTH]

A thought occurred to me -
.

Maybe I’m just your average every day conspiracy theorist, but given the recent emotional meltdown by Mr. Cramer, I’d consider it more then plausible. :suspicious:

 

[FundSurfer]

I was thinking these guys were desperate to keep the market afloat, but maybe they are more interested in embarassing the Fed.

That embarrassment would have to be worth a lot of money and time to be worth it.

I'd buy some hedge funds making volitility worse by buying/shorting swings but the Financials types are historically very conservative. I don't think they would play those type games. Now hedge funds which are heavily invested in those financials might try to play some game but it is more likely pump and dump to lessen their own losses.

 

[Griffin]

Does this mean you are re-thinking your jump in the I fund?

No, in fact I would be more inclined to buy. Since I'm already in, I'm still looking at the FV play for extra fun.

 

[Griffin]

That embarrassment would have to be worth a lot of money and time to be worth it.

If a quarter of what Cramer said is true, this isn't about sacrificing some value today, to stay profitable later - this is about bankruptcy and jobs.

 

[Griffin]

The eye poking has started

"FOMC -

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh."