Golden Cross

[Birchtree]

Shouldn't lily padders to be safe hold out until SPX 1222? That certainly sounds reasonable.

 

[JTH]

I should also add that 30 points is significant, and enough to flip many short-intermediate trading systems over to a buy.

 

[Birchtree]

But just like Coolhand, they won't believe their own systems - how perfect a scenario.

 

[JTH]

The 15 minute turned bullish this week.
View attachment 9982

The 30 minute went bullish on Friday
View attachment 9983

The hourly remains bearish
View attachment 9984

The Daily chart is bearish with all 4 in the red.
View attachment 9985

 

[JTH]

For the Top 4 meaning TRAN, NASDAQ, SPX, & SML.

15 Minute: Bullish
30 Minute: Bullish
Hourly: Bullish

Daily: Bearish with only the Transports having a Golden Cross.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.
View attachment 10055

 

[Devilduck]

What app is in your slides and is it available on www somewhere?

 

[KevinD]

What app is in your slides and is it available on www somewhere?

http://stockcharts.com/index.html

 

[Frixxxx]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.

But it's a cross! I'll take it!

Thanks for the chart Invisible JTH!

 

[tsptalk]

Good morning

Just thought I'd let you know the S-Fund is close to a bullish 50/200 Golden Cross(over.) This isn't as strong a cross as I'd like to see.

Thanks. I'm actually surprised to hear it has not happened already.

 

[Devilduck]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/dow...etion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

 

[JTH]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/dow...etion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

It's a tough symbol to find, most don't have the 4500, just the 5000

 

[JTH]

I should point out that a Golden Cross almost never gives you the ideal entry point. In general this is usually about 2-8 weeks prior to the crossover. In this case it's about a 6 week delay.

The same goes for the ideal exit on a Death Cross, only it's usually a much longer delay, like you should have exited 8-12 weeks earlier.

I still believe it's a good system and I've been able to prove it consistenly beats the markets over a long period of time, but I also believe you can do better than a golden cross system if you add some additional rules. The biggest lession to be learned is that it can protect you form a severe bear market, and after all without capital preservation you have nothing...

 

[Bullitt]

So in other words, the death cross/golden cross like all technical analysis, is a crap shoot. I'm guessing golden cross was dreamed up by a broker to make it sound 'safer' for his clients to buy, aka, pay him more commissions.

 

[JTH]

So in other words, the death cross/golden cross like all technical analysis, is a crap shoot. I'm guessing golden cross was dreamed up by a broker to make it sound 'safer' for his clients to buy, aka, pay him more commissions.

Bullitt!!! (good to see ya)

Lol well I wouldn't call it a crap shoot, but you sure have to be sure you have the right entry point before you dedicate yourself to a long-term system such as this. For me, I apply this system over multiple indexes because I believe it gives me a more precise picture of market conditions.

 

[Bullitt]

I know you're watching many indexes.

Before April's drop, we had death crosses in many foreign indexes before the US indexes followed suit. Not all markets go down at once as money moves from the general indexes to sectors or regions when a market ages.

 

[KevinD]

thank you for the link. Anyone else having problems with symbol input into other databases such as bloomberg for 'Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index'. Most apps don't even recognize "dwcpf" except yahoo it seems.

I looked at this link which spells out symbol and none of them worked. All other funds I can place and track in ipad using bloomberg ap or marketwatch etc but none have success replicating the "s" fund chart like yahoo. Any suggestions?


http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/dow...etion_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf

Thanks,

Dave

Try $EMW at stockcharts.com

 

[crws]

There was a 2 week lag from the NYT article showing the EU debt crisis and the US market reaction.
The Oil spill was fully active.
"irrational exuberance" comes to mind....
AGG is back on the uptrend, and looks no different than since April

 

[JTH]

I'm not big on the VIX, but I would like to point out we had another bearish crossover recently, the last time this happened stocks performed exceptionally well, as illustrated by the S&P 500 comparison chart posted below the VIX.

View attachment 10094

 

[KevinD]

What about the time before that? :worried: