Golden Cross

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That's quite the gap in the Nasdaq, JTH. Any thoughts about that vs. the other indices?
 
alevin said:
That's quite the gap in the Nasdaq, JTH. Any thoughts about that vs. the other indices?
Click to expand...


I realize gaps almost always get filled, but the NASDAQ has always been the gappiest. of the major American Indexes. Still, a gap fill is still within the range of the descending price channel. I couldn't even gander a guess because anything could happen at this point, seeing how we are severely oversold on all timeframes.

View attachment 9673
 
I think going back up to about 2250 on the Nasdaq would play perfectly into the head and shoulders theory. It would fill the gap and would take it back up to about the 200 day MA before it plunges again.

Thanks for the info JTH!!
 
Might go to about 2230 or so. Basically I"m looking for a 5-7% bounce here that might take about a week and half to two weeks to transpire. If you draw a line from the top of the head down through the top of the right shoulder and beyond, I think that's were we might be headed. Hoping anyway........;)
 
Looking at your past charts, it looks like there is usually a very short rally when the 50/200 crosses to the downside, yet not every 50/200 is a reliable downside signal. However, every bear market has resumed or started with the 50/200 cross to the downside, which is why this signal is so hard to disregard. The 50/200 is just one of many negative technicals right now and coupled with the H&S confirmed pattern is just a start.
 
Intrepid_Investor said:
Might go to about 2230 or so. Basically I"m looking for a 5-7% bounce here that might take about a week and half to two weeks to transpire. If you draw a line from the top of the head down through the top of the right shoulder and beyond, I think that's were we might be headed. Hoping anyway........;)
Click to expand...

Well, we made it to that 2230 area. Took almost a week and a half.........;)

Let's see if we pull back now..................
 
Intrepid_Investor said:
Well, we made it to that 2230 area. Took almost a week and a half.........;)

Let's see if we pull back now..................
Click to expand...

I do tip my hat to you, you've been riding this broke-back market like no other can, and your timing has been impeccable.

IMHO with a potential H&S here, the risk/reward ratio is off the charts. This is the last place I'd want to buy this market.
 
Death Cross

Anyone who knows me knows when it comes to the American markets, I give the top 4 the most weight. The Transports, NASDAQ, S&P 500, and S&P 600 are what I call the top 4.

BEAR MARKET WARNING! We now have 3 of 4 giving us a bearish 50/200SMA DEATH CROSS. You long-termers may want to take notice... For the S&P 500 I have golden cross charts posted in this thread, going back to 1984.

View attachment 9845
View attachment 9846
View attachment 9847
View attachment 9848
 
death cross + Hindenburg Omen = ??? (bad news)

phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).
 
Re: death cross + Hindenburg Omen = ??? (bad news)

amoeba said:
phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).
Click to expand...

Well these are Daily charts, so it was the small caps that went into the red last week, while the other two have been there since early-mid July.
 
Re: death cross + Hindenburg Omen = ??? (bad news)

amoeba said:
phooey!!!! Hindenburg Omen and Death Cross = ???

I came into the office to make an IFT; now I dunno in which direction...
now I'm thinking of bailing/locking in last week's losses to avoid more (a mere 0.7% for me).
Click to expand...

IOW, the Ominous Hindenburg Death Cross
pucker up and KYAG! :laugh:
 
Jason,

What is your expected top in the S&P500 before it rolls over? Or will the FED ever prevent that from happening?
 
Gumby said:
Jason,

What is your expected top in the S&P500 before it rolls over? Or will the FED ever prevent that from happening?
Click to expand...

Lol I'm not saying it's going to roll over, at least not this month. :D 1084-1094 are the areas I'm watching, with 1100 being the peak. This is a volatile market and I'll retain this opinion as long as we stay above 1040.

Never miss an opportunity to post a chart...
View attachment 9942
 
Now being at 1080, are you still seeing 1100 as the top? That must have changed if you're now seeing a buy signal?
 
Warrenlm said:
Now being at 1080, are you still seeing 1100 as the top? That must have changed if you're now seeing a buy signal?
Click to expand...

I haven't been using the moving averages to evaluate price, but it does serve as confirmation when you see all 4 indexes flipping over on this time frame. In particular, the transports led the others by 1 day, and this is typical of what I've seen with past "valid" buy signals.

Technically speaking I see 1095 as the top (if we continue a downtrend) but you'll notice we have a small double top on this 2-hour chart right at 1100, so I have to take this into account when making an assessment. If I were on the sidelines right now, I'd advise others to wait for a clearly defined higher low at or above 1053 to materialize.

With 1084 being 4 points away and 1095 being 15 points away, this isn't a trade I'd want to jump in and make, after we just abosorbed 30 freakin-holly-cow points. But like these markets prove, I can't predict prices, only evaluate them and slim down the risk...

View attachment 9949
 
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