05/31/13
Stocks opened strongly on Thursday, closed on the weak side, but held on to some modest gains. The Dow gained 22-points while the broader indices saw a bit better returns - particularly the small caps.
[TABLE="width: 607, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 162, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is playing with that old resistance line (red), which was broken and became support, but later failed and is now resistance again. The blue support line also broke last week and is now acting as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader Dow Transportation Index, has been lagging of late and as one of our forum members (Sensei) pointed out, it has created a small bearish head and shoulders pattern. A breakdown below the neckline support would give this IYT Transport ETF a downside target near 109. Sometimes these patterns bounce off of the neckline and test the middle of the head of the H&S first.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq has created a nice little pennant formation. These tend to break in the direction of the larger trend, which is of course up, but sometimes we first see a fake out in the opposite direction before the true breakout direction is determined.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I thought it was interesting that the Semiconductor Index made a new high yesterday. It is generally a leader of the Nasdaq, which is another market leader so this is a bit of a bullish sign for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator moved to its most oversold reading of the year this week. Prior readings near -250 have produced bottoms to what few pullbacks we've seen this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This will be a test for the bull market since we don't usually see very oversold readings, like we saw last fall, unless we're in a more serious pullback / correction.
I sent the following out on Facebook and Twitter yesterday, but if you missed it...
Looking back at the first trading day in June over recent years shows some big moves in both directions. This tells me that Monday may be wild day - one way or another.
Here are the gains and losses in the Dow on the first trading day in June since 2008:
2012: -275
2011: -279
2010: -112
2009: +221
2008: -135
Four of the five years were large losses, but even the gain in 2009 was a whopper.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened strongly on Thursday, closed on the weak side, but held on to some modest gains. The Dow gained 22-points while the broader indices saw a bit better returns - particularly the small caps.
[TABLE="width: 607, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.38%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 162, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is playing with that old resistance line (red), which was broken and became support, but later failed and is now resistance again. The blue support line also broke last week and is now acting as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader Dow Transportation Index, has been lagging of late and as one of our forum members (Sensei) pointed out, it has created a small bearish head and shoulders pattern. A breakdown below the neckline support would give this IYT Transport ETF a downside target near 109. Sometimes these patterns bounce off of the neckline and test the middle of the head of the H&S first.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq has created a nice little pennant formation. These tend to break in the direction of the larger trend, which is of course up, but sometimes we first see a fake out in the opposite direction before the true breakout direction is determined.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I thought it was interesting that the Semiconductor Index made a new high yesterday. It is generally a leader of the Nasdaq, which is another market leader so this is a bit of a bullish sign for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The NYSE overbought / oversold indicator moved to its most oversold reading of the year this week. Prior readings near -250 have produced bottoms to what few pullbacks we've seen this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This will be a test for the bull market since we don't usually see very oversold readings, like we saw last fall, unless we're in a more serious pullback / correction.
I sent the following out on Facebook and Twitter yesterday, but if you missed it...
Looking back at the first trading day in June over recent years shows some big moves in both directions. This tells me that Monday may be wild day - one way or another.
Here are the gains and losses in the Dow on the first trading day in June since 2008:
2012: -275
2011: -279
2010: -112
2009: +221
2008: -135
Four of the five years were large losses, but even the gain in 2009 was a whopper.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
