GDPNow GDP Estimates

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On August 19, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent, down from 2.5 percent on August 15.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On August 26, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent, down from 2.3 percent on August 19.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Big adjustment:

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 29, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent, up from 2.2 percent on August 26.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On September 2, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.0 percent, down from 3.5 percent on August 29.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent, up from 3.1 percent on September 10.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent, up from 3.1 percent on September 10.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On September 26, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent, up from 3.3 percent on September 17.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On November 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.0 percent, up from 3.9 percent on October 27.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On November 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.1 percent, up from 4.0 percent on November 6.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 19.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Interest rates are lower and quantitative tightening is ending next month with GDP at 4.2% plus? What's not to like?


Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On November 19, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent on November 17.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 25, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.0 percent, down from 4.2 percent on November 21.

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 26, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent, down from 4.0 percent on November 25.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On December 4, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent, down from 3.9 percent on December 1.

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On December 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent, down from 3.8 percent on December 4.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Latest estimate: 3.6 percent — December 11, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.6 percent on December 11, up from 3.5 percent on December 5.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On December 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent on December 11.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Initial Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 3.0 Percent

On December 23, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 3.0 percent.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On January 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 2.7 percent, down from 3.0 percent on December 23.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

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Big jump in the estimate.

Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On January 8, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent, up from 2.7 percent on January 5.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Fourth Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On January 9, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.1 percent, down from 5.4 percent on January 8.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org