GDP - Gross Domestic Product

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Third-quarter real GDP comes in lower than expected

CNBC’s Rick Santelli joins ‘Squawk Box’ to break down the third reading of Q3 real GDP, initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey.
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Video: Third-quarter real GDP comes in lower than expected


From Briefing.com:

Third quarter real GDP was revised lower, but it was still a heady 4.9% (Briefing.com consensus 5.2%) versus the second estimate of 5.2% and 2.1% in the second quarter.The GDP Price Deflator was revised down to 3.3% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%) from 3.6% in the second estimate and 1.7% in the second quarter.
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The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected

GDP, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023. Wall Street had been looking for a 2% gain.

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains and better than the 1.9% increase in 2022.

A strong pace of consumer spending helped drive the expansion, as did government spending.
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GDP Q4 2023: The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
 
GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace, below the 2.4% estimate.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, its biggest gain in a year.

Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate.
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GDP Q1 2024: Economy increased at a 1.6% rate
 
U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected

Real gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, above the 2.1% forecast.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Fed, rose 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Core PCE prices were up 2.9%, down from 3.7%.

However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1.
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U.S. GDP Q2 2024:



08:30 ET: GDP-Adv. For: Q2
Actual: 2.8% |
B.com Forecast: 2.3% |
B.com Cons: 1.9% |
Prior: 1.4%
 
U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, largely pushed by a surge in imports ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Imports soared 41.3%, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP, so the contraction in growth may not be viewed as negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse.

The report provided cross signals for the Fed. While the negative growth number might push the central bank to consider lowering interest rates, inflation readings could give policymakers pause.
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From briefing.com:

GDP - Second Estimate For: Q1
Actual: -0.2%
B.com Forecast: -0.2%
B.com Cons: -0.3%
Prior: -0.3%

GDP Deflator - Second Estimate For: Q1
Actual: 3.7%
B.com Forecast: 3.7%
B.com Cons: 3.7%
Prior: 3.7%
 
Briefing.com

GDP - Third Estimate For: Q1
Actual: -0.5% |
B.com Forecast: -0.2%
B.com Cons: -0.2%
Prior: -0.2%

GDP Deflator - Third Estimate For: Q1
Actual: 3.8%
B.com Forecast: 3.7%
B.com Cons: 3.7%
Prior: 3.7%
 
Briefing.com:

The Advance Q2 GDP report showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.5%) following a 0.5% decline for the first quarter.

The GDP Deflator increased 2.0% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.6%) following a 3.8% increase in the first quarter.

GDP measures the market value of all goods and services produced in an economy.
The GDP price deflator measures inflation in the prices of goods and services produced in the U.S., including exports.
The GDP price deflator is a more comprehensive inflation measure than the CPI, which measures the price changes in a fixed basket of goods.
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U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit

 
Yes! I'm with the Fed on this. I don't think we need a cut yet, but what do I know? 😵‍💫

However, based on the 2-year yield, the bond market seems to think we need a cut. :unsure:
 
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