G Fund

[FundSurfer]

....I already knew when the G fund was going to pay...

Sure you did. I call that Monday morning Quarterbacking. It is easy to say after the fact.

As to dispensing wisdom, I've yet to see that you have dispensed any wisdom. All I read from you is what your crystal ball says. Nothing of any analytical quality. If anyone has seen anything from Dumbledore that has any meaningful analytical quality, point me to it. I try not to read all the Dumbedore dribble and I may have missed some speck somewhere.

BTW... I guess I'm glutton for punishment, I'm still predicting Nov. 3 as the next penny. (Notice there are no weasel words in that statement like, "....we are in a mix of rate changes but I believe that is the earliest date it could pop....")

 

[FundSurfer]

View attachment 1165

FYI. This is a graph from the Appendix of the last Thrift Savings Board report.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Sure you did. I call that Monday morning Quarterbacking. It is easy to say after the fact.

As to dispensing wisdom, I've yet to see that you have dispensed any wisdom. All I read from you is what your crystal ball says. Nothing of any analytical quality. If anyone has seen anything from Dumbledore that has any meaningful analytical quality, point me to it. I try not to read all the Dumbedore dribble and I may have missed some speck somewhere.

BTW... I guess I'm glutton for punishment, I'm still predicting Nov. 3 as the next penny. (Notice there are no weasel words in that statement like, "....we are in a mix of rate changes but I believe that is the earliest date it could pop....")

LOL...Dumbeldore. To his credit, he did post something a while back about graphing the G fund, that looked like it 'might' have some potenial. But the formulas that you and MM and ckb seemed much more plausible. I guess the one remaining variable is the monthly loan rate increase/decrease. Please keep at it, FS, CKB, and MM.

 

[FundSurfer]

I guess the one remaining variable is the monthly loan rate increase/decrease.

There is also the issue of when the managment fees are take out of the G-fund (currently 4 basis points or $0.40 per $1000.) It isn't clear if they take this small amount out daily/monthly/or annually. You would think daily, but that would be a very small number on a daily basis (0.00016% daily).

 

[fabijo]

There is also the issue of when the managment fees are take out of the G-fund (currently 4 basis points or $0.40 per $1000.) It isn't clear if they take this small amount out daily/monthly/or annually. You would think daily, but that would be a very small number on a daily basis (0.00016% daily).

I was trying to figure that out myself, too. It would be hard to say if it is daily, because they have different amounts each year. They wouldn't know how much the fees will be until after the fact. You would figure that they allow us to see in detail how much they are spending on our accounts, since it is our money they are using. Maybe there is some tax form filings available to the public somewhere?

 

[The_Technician]

LOL...Dumbeldore. To his credit, he did post something a while back about graphing the G fund, that looked like it 'might' have some potenial. But the formulas that you and MM and ckb seemed much more plausible. I guess the one remaining variable is the monthly loan rate increase/decrease. Please keep at it, FS, CKB, and MM.

Actually to get it right you cannot do what Funsmuf, mm and ckb are trying to do....I initally tried the same but it failed....once I noticed it took short term attention I started to hit the dates pretty regulary....so I know what the apprentices are doing, been there done that.....the plotting is actually more accurate than their calculations if you apply yourself orrectly.....

 

[fabijo]

I was trying to figure that out myself, too. It would be hard to say if it is daily, because they have different amounts each year. They wouldn't know how much the fees will be until after the fact. You would figure that they allow us to see in detail how much they are spending on our accounts, since it is our money they are using. Maybe there is some tax form filings available to the public somewhere?

Well, I just noticed the meeting minutes from September. It says that this year's administrative expenses will be .04% and that they are looking at .03%, or even as low as .02% for next year. It also showed that the I fund is the most expensive to trade, averaging about .12% so far this year - but it looks like they spread the cost through all of the funds to make them even.

 

[mlk_man]

Not always easy is it oh great one...............


05-31-2006, 07:38 AM
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/image.php?u=868&dateline=1136292468 The_Technician
Location: , ,
Posts: 1,807

Re: G Fund
The payoff yesterday really upset the timing model we have easily enjoyed over the recent past.....I really couldn't feel safe on making a date prediction on the next increase seeing the recent delay in the last increase. I would be ready Friday even though I'm getting Monday as a possible date....

Carnac
__________________
The Technician

 

[mlk_man]

I upped my past calculations a little bit and see the next penny payouts on Nov 3rd and 10th. This could change if they change the rates on the 1st. I'll be looking.

 

[FundSurfer]

I upped my past calculations a little bit and see the next penny payouts on Nov 3rd and 10th. This could change if they change the rates on the 1st. I'll be looking.

I did a little playing with the interest rate for the Nov 3 date and the rate would have to change quite a bit to change that date. You only have a couple of days at the new rate which would not have that big an impact.

 

[mlk_man]

The 3rd it is then.................hopefully.................

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

sounds good to me, thanks guys

 

[mlk_man]

Just got this from tsp.gov. Has anyone ever seen the TSP operate on a limited basis? Are they gonna borrow money from us again or what?

November 10th (Veterans Day) is a Federal holiday, but the stock and bond markets will be open. In addition, we have been advised by the Department of the Treasury that it will be open to accept our investments in the G Fund. Therefore, the TSP will be operating on a limited business schedule on November 10th. Click here for more information.

 

[mlk_man]

Wonder how this will affect my persumed payout of the penny that day?

 

[Show-me]

I have heard someone else say this. I the market is open the TSP should be open. Barclay manages our fund so whats the problem? Maybe a **** and moan letter to Gary, Mike, and the TSP board. I think this is bull!!!

 

[pyriel]

It seems like it will be business as usual for them. The only difference I see is that there will no one there to answer the phone. I hope i am reading that correctly.

 

[mlk_man]

Looks like your right Py. Guess I should of clicked on the button..........

 

[Show-me]

Veteran's Day, November 10, 2006 — Although November 10th is a Federal holiday, the stock and bond markets will be open. In addition, we have been advised by the Department of the Treasury that it will be open to accept our investments in the G Fund. Therefore, the TSP will be operating on a limited business schedule on November 10th.

• Share prices will be calculated as of close of business on November 10th and account balances will be updated.

• Transactions made on this Web site or the ThriftLine by 12 noon eastern time on Friday, November 10th will be processed that night.

The TSP call centers will be closed on November 10th.

 

[ckb21401]

The loan interest rate for new loans differs in the 2 places listed on the website. In the What's New - Current Information - Loan Interest Rate it is listed as 4.625%, but when I look up loan balance available in my account access it lists the loan rate at 4.75%. I guess this means the rate really does change on the 1st of the month and the change does not get propagated to the loan page until later.

Craig

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

good catch, ckb..thanks. Friday still looks like the penny?