"Now the questions at hand are, did the October'07 top mark THE top of this entire bull market advance up from the 1974 low or as Richard Russell has recently suggested, are we still operating within this mammoth bull market?"
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10021.htm
He also said:
"According to Dow theory, once the trend is authoritatively established it must be considered to still be intact until it is reversed. As I read the current situation, that reversal may be underway given the current non-confirmation, which is noted in red on the chart above. Also, the move on Friday above the February 1st closing high, is indeed a positive development.
But, as I read the Dow theory, the February high did not constitute a "secondary" high point. Therefore, we are still operating between the previous secondary high and low points and according to Dow theory this means that the previously established trend must still be considered to be in force. I do believe that we are now moving up into the secondary high point and that there is a very good chance that the trend has indeed turned up. But, in accordance to strict Dow theory principle, until the secondary high point that we are now pressing into is made, followed by a higher secondary low and then ultimately a bettering of the secondary high point, that is now being made, occurs the previously established trend is still down"
AND
"It is my opinion that the constant manipulation to keep things going and to "manage" the economy are only making matters worse. Much worse in fact in the long run. I would rather have smaller bear markets along the way than one huge one in the end and with at least a 33 year long bull market now at play,
we are indeed being set up for a rather nasty bear market at some point in the future. Once these manipulative efforts fail, and they will, then that bear market will be underway and there won't be any stopping it."
The objective here at TSP land is to work the cycles and make more $ than buy and hold. The current counter trend rally is overbought, so there is more chance for short-term down than up. That is what we are talking about. Work the cycles. Long term hold is a pain strategy with lower results. Why go there?
