FUTURESTRADER'S account talk

[FUTURESTRADER]

gettin set for 07...and maybe get a laser pen or TSPtalk mug

still very greatful for this site and the insights and efforts of all involved.

 

[Birchtree]

I just bought a laser pen for my new Tonkinese kitten - she'll make a valuable contribution to my investing prowess.

 

[ebbnflow]

gettin set for 07...and maybe get a laser pen or TSPtalk mug

still very greatful for this site and the insights and efforts of all involved.

Good luck FUTURESTRADER! I'm still on a quest for my first TSPTalk mug. Maybe Tom has a bigger prize in store (trophy?) for the one with the highest return in 2007. Let the game begin!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I am 50 S, 50 I for today. I thought I had posted that in 'account' yesterday before deadline, likely my mistake. Posting this here to avoid clutter in account (no chat). Again, likely my msitake but if anyone happens upon this msg. in a bottle, and has any insight, pls clue me in?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

no Paladin...I don't use my 'talk' thread much, I was just sure I posted my move yesterday in my acount 'no talk' thread. It probably won't make much a difference anyway. Thanks

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

20% S...lookin for support at 13 ema
30 I%...lookin for support at 20 ema ( + ebbtracker)

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

lol...I jumped in with the herd..what's the saying about the herd being last in/out at the top/bottom, or am I mixing investment metaphors again?...hard to go against ebb and rest of the +15% ytders

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

this ebb thing is uncanny..birch thinks it may go cold...not goin all in with ebb just yet...has only been a relatively short time, and last time i followed the heard, or congregation at this point (see previous post), it bit me in the tucass. So givin ebb 70%, keepin 30% in G

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

alrighty, all in with Ebb and the rest of ya's

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

please keep hands and feet inside untl the ride comes to a stop

 

[Geaux4it]

I just bailed today from ebb as a paying member. Just time to sit it out for a while. In addition, with the TSP changes coming relative to IFT's it's probably moot anyhow.

Geaux

View attachment 2632

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

ebbsystem might still have some promise. I'll pay $16/month for a while longer just to observe. I've paid 10's of 1000s in comissions a year to lose 100's of thousands. The market can charge an ivy league tuition

 

[Geaux4it]

I am becoming concerned with systems that predict up trends based on past performance criteria. The market of the past is nothing compared to the unpredictable market of today. Especially, since early Oct.

Geaux

JMHO- I could very well be wrong big time. :nuts:

Geaux

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Agreed. And also that take no fundamental analysis or 'news' data into account AND predicts 2-3 days in advance without taking those days into account. But it seemed to be working . I was/am waiting for the law of averages to rear it's ugly head.

 

[airlift]

I think that the changes won't be effective until February or March?

 

[Steadygain]

I am becoming concerned with systems that predict up trends based on past performance criteria. The market of the past is nothing compared to the unpredictable market of today. Especially, since early Oct.

Geaux

JMHO- I could very well be wrong big time. :nuts:

Geaux

Couldn't said it better myself, and many (including me) lost quite abit since 10/07.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

"Mr. Crusher...begin transfer of analysis focus from daily charts to weekly charts"

 

[Birchtree]

"Now the questions at hand are, did the October'07 top mark THE top of this entire bull market advance up from the 1974 low or as Richard Russell has recently suggested, are we still operating within this mammoth bull market?"

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10021.htm

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I hear ya Birch, but I think I can beat buy n hold over the long term, i.e. the next 20 years.

 

[Uptrend]

"Now the questions at hand are, did the October'07 top mark THE top of this entire bull market advance up from the 1974 low or as Richard Russell has recently suggested, are we still operating within this mammoth bull market?"

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10021.htm

He also said:

"According to Dow theory, once the trend is authoritatively established it must be considered to still be intact until it is reversed. As I read the current situation, that reversal may be underway given the current non-confirmation, which is noted in red on the chart above. Also, the move on Friday above the February 1st closing high, is indeed a positive development. But, as I read the Dow theory, the February high did not constitute a "secondary" high point. Therefore, we are still operating between the previous secondary high and low points and according to Dow theory this means that the previously established trend must still be considered to be in force. I do believe that we are now moving up into the secondary high point and that there is a very good chance that the trend has indeed turned up. But, in accordance to strict Dow theory principle, until the secondary high point that we are now pressing into is made, followed by a higher secondary low and then ultimately a bettering of the secondary high point, that is now being made, occurs the previously established trend is still down"

AND
"It is my opinion that the constant manipulation to keep things going and to "manage" the economy are only making matters worse. Much worse in fact in the long run. I would rather have smaller bear markets along the way than one huge one in the end and with at least a 33 year long bull market now at play, we are indeed being set up for a rather nasty bear market at some point in the future. Once these manipulative efforts fail, and they will, then that bear market will be underway and there won't be any stopping it."

The objective here at TSP land is to work the cycles and make more $ than buy and hold. The current counter trend rally is overbought, so there is more chance for short-term down than up. That is what we are talking about. Work the cycles. Long term hold is a pain strategy with lower results. Why go there?