Furlough Thread

[Warrenlm]

Analysis: Obama, GOP see no need to stop the cuts - Yahoo! Finance

Piece's "analysis" says both the President and the Congress seem to be willing to allow the sequestration (and furloughs) to go forward. I wonder what alternatives for implementing the forced reductions were considered in the Executive Branch before the Obama Administration decided to make the impact so hard on people and so widespread as they picked the methods to meet the financial requirements. Perhaps I'm wrong but I doubt the legislation decreed the final details. In the past, whenever absorbing cuts of even greater magnitude was necessary, much effort was always made to do the opposite of what is being done now. Sure looks like President Obama wants to make the pain felt by people.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

about a year and a half ago my agency started aggressively cutting costs to preempt the need to use furloughs. reducing staff ceilings by not backfilling, let all temporary employees go, closed some offices, consolidated others under shared management, cut most travel and training, quit bulk mailings, cut supply budgets to the bone, print everything double-sided and liberating pens from bank and restaurant counters, etc.

we were sitting pretty smug watching other gov entities fret recently about temp/contractor/travel budgets knowing we had already saved/stashed enough in the budget to avoid furloughs. this was the reward for enduring unforced austerity, we can avoid furloughs at least until next fiscal year, or so we were told.

then a few weeks ago the tune changed. no matter who you are or what you've already sacrificed/extra workload you've picked up, everybody is going to feel this pain equally, all the same, gov wide. strong consistent message from the top down. no choice in the matter. hands are tied. sorry.

the beatings will continue until revenue improves.

 

[Boghie]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

We are being gamed, the numbers prove it...

The weak and the poor will be culled from the herd. I think the Administration is bluffing using the Washington Monument tactic. However, I think the bluff will be called. Anyone remember NTC San Diego. Nice Navy training command right next to the Pacific Fleet. The Navy kept putting it on the BRAC List. Every time they hollered that if you going to cut us you are going to cut deep - to the bone man, to the bone!!!

Then, one year, it was cut and the Navy trains its sailors on a lake in Michigan.

That is where I think we are. You going to cut me man, here goes your ability to fly. Cut the DoD 6% and everybody gets a 20% pay cut, carriers get scuttled right offshore the new uppity houses on the old NTC San Diego neighborhood, and our missiles will accidentally launch against Dallas Texas. The Department of Education gets slammed by 5% and all the nations teachers can only set foot in a school one day a week. Our National Forests will burn because their are no firemen, trucks, or planes.

None of that will happen, but the cuts will

It's belt tightening time for us, but first will be a steady diet of slim shakes.

 

[alevin]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

We are being gamed, the numbers prove it...

The weak and the poor will be culled from the herd. I think the Administration is bluffing using the Washington Monument tactic. However, I think the bluff will be called. Anyone remember NTC San Diego. Nice Navy training command right next to the Pacific Fleet. The Navy kept putting it on the BRAC List. Every time they hollered that if you going to cut us you are going to cut deep - to the bone man, to the bone!!!

Then, one year, it was cut and the Navy trains its sailors on a lake in Michigan.

That is where I think we are. You going to cut me man, here goes your ability to fly. Cut the DoD 6% and everybody gets a 20% pay cut, carriers get scuttled right offshore the new uppity houses on the old NTC San Diego neighborhood, and our missiles will accidentally launch against Dallas Texas. The Department of Education gets slammed by 5% and all the nations teachers can only set foot in a school one day a week. Our National Forests will burn because their are no firemen, trucks, or planes.

None of that will happen, but the cuts will

close, Boghie buddy, close. SecAg and the Chief of USFS swear USFS can squeak by this year without furloughs, by cutting back contracts, seasonal hiring, unnecessary travel...of course seasonal hiring means no seasonal firefighters, and maybe some cuts back on all the logistics and supply contracts and contractors that support the firefighting efforts, including some of the actual firefighting itself. We shall see, we shall see.....

It helps a bit that they swiped more than they really needed away from all the local unit everyday budgets late last summer, to make sure they had enough to pay for last years ginormous nationwide firefighting costs last year. We're supposed to get the unused funds back in next few weeks, mediated by higher ups as to which unit gets how much of the refund swag-no guarantees the local unit will get all back of what was swiped from last years local budget.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Off the stool Burro, talk of RIF's have been going on since 2009. Every agency has been doing something to reduce cost. Our Garrison has gone from 600 to 400, same work load, and we are still 40 over where they want us to be and will still do the furlough thing when called upon.
As a soldier many years ago I remember 2 man tank crews. And that was in Europe during the cold war. You had to have a driver so that meant the Tank Commander was also the loader and Gunner. As a civilian now I know what my PD says but in the grand sceme of providing quality service to our Soldiers and their Families I've added driver, loader and gunner to my duties

 

[burrocrat]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

you make a good point workfe, that was a pretty lame pity party i was throwing for myself anyways. we're all in the same leaky boat, but at least i'm in fine company. see you in the salt mines.

 

[Boghie]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

I guess the weirdest thing about this thing is:

Were has all the money gone...

I know that sounds like a teaser for "American Greed'. I know that we are watching through the adds to see how some scoundrel scammed some sap by over-promising some near future benefit for some small investment payable now.

But seriously, where has the 20% growth over elevated spending in FY2008 gone. Do any of us feel it. In the words of WorkFE, have we hired a marching band to go with the driver, gunner, loader, and commander. Or, have we plated every other drive wheel with gold and silver.

God, I hope so. If we have some fat we can cut and not hurt the customer. However, if the scammer got the cash and bought seminars in Hawaii, meetings in Brussels, a bunch of failed automation projects, built out some big bureaucratic processes, or paid people not to work for half a decade then we have nothing to cut. We will be on TV yammering about how we got a few checks from the perp, invested our life in him, and then couldn't get a hold of him. He is on the lamb, faking his death, and was recently spotted in Monaco. And the viewers of this episode of "American Greed" will be yelling at us to pick ourselves by our bootstraps and stop living off of a ponzi schemes temporary dole.

My guess is that the scammer is still at the phone. Promising stuff in this handset and trying to sucker others on that one. But we suckers (all of us taxpayers) are too poor to be suckered. We ain't got the cash, we ain't got the confidence in the future, and we don't believe anything the scammer is saying. And, we have lots of scammers calling.

We have got to cut spending by around $500 Billion and allow the economy to bring in an increasing revenue stream. Stop scaring people through demands for more of their stuff. Let them make their own financial moves - the scammer will get his cut. But, only if the sucker isn't scared.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

But seriously, where has the 20% growth over elevated spending in FY2008 gone.

Quick anecdotal comment:

To answer your question, some of it went to government contract companies...

I was privy (I am waaaaay down the food chain) to a contract award last year that went to a subcontractor (won't mention the name) under Lockheed Martin. The value of the contract was $2.5 million, for 5 contractors, for one year...

You do the math :nuts:

 

[Boghie]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Quick anecdotal comment:

To answer your question, some of it went to government contract companies...

I was privy (I am waaaaay down the food chain) to a contract award last year that went to a subcontractor (won't mention the name) under Lockheed Martin. The value of the contract was $2.5 million, for 5 contractors, for one year...

You do the math :nuts:

NMCI - Non Mission Capable Internet

Nuff said...

But, to say more:nuts:...
The USMC ended up with a reasonable network infrastructure, but the data systems and automation advances soon advanced into the 1950s and stayed there. The dumbies that built and signed that dumb bunny contract thought that contracting out the wiring and switches - and losing control of their ability to modernize their automated systems - would result in great productivity gains. Why have a 'state of the art' network without data. And, I am kinda loose on the meaning of 'state of the art'. We are far behind our capabilities of a decade ago. Now, the people in charge have only lived the NMCI dream. They do not even know what a force multiplier data could be. They think e-signed Adobe pdfs are the shiznit and don't even have the skillset to get that right. Yowser...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

The contract wasn't NMCI related, but NMCI was definitely a waste of money...

 

[burrocrat]

i think this is called an oxymoron, or how to tell if the numbers don't add up.

as it relates to air travel: sequestration will negatively impact travelers because there will be less personnel to process passengers, man towers, and direct flights. but because of the reduced personal incomes and the inconvenience of longer waits and the uncertain economy there will also be less travelers available to experience the waits in line.

on one hand we have two victims, the unemployed controllers and potential passengers. on the other hand it washes out and wait times to get frisked to see if you have too much shampoo stashed in your underwear before boarding a carbon fiber bullet with faulty batteries will be about the same because less potential terrorists will be able to afford to populate the security line.

something doesn't pencil out here. there's a yin for every yang. which fear you gonna buy?

 

[Boghie]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Spot on from Matthew Yglesias: 'Forget Sequestration'

The scary thing for all of us is that everybody is looking past sequestration. That will hurt us for a while. But, again we are being gamed. Sequestration 'hits' in early March, we have to have 30 days notification, so we will get hit in early April.

The Continuing Resolution ends late March. The struggle for an actual budgeted spending process will begin earlier. I think we will actually get some sort of number, and thus some real authorization for spending. At that point (whether late March or sometime in April) our agencies will have a number to spend to that is legit and is real. Then, the dumb bunny answer of sequestration (the only spending restraint our goobers could think of) will be obsolete. Thus, sequestration will be resolved either before it starts or soon thereafter if our elected goobers have any management skillset whatsoever...

Hopefully, the result will be at least the cut of the sequester; but provide the agencies the flexibility to manage the cut. Hopefully, the agencies will not simply 'cut' by not hiring positions that have never been filled. Hopefully, everyone will treat this in an adult manner. We have customers and there is a cost of doing business.

 

[burrocrat]

i was bored and couldn't sleep so i was doing some reading on the cbo.gov where i came across some truly eye opening statistics. 2013 spending on the supplemental nutrition assistance program (snap) is projected at about $82 billion. that struck me as odd because the goal of the furloughs is to save the gov about $85 this fiscal year.

another way to look at it is that every extra day off and every less dollar you bring in goes directly into feeding those less fortunate. so that should ease the pain of sequestration a little and give you something to feel good about in your new found spare time.

it's not exactly a straight one for one trade because of newtons 3rd law of equal and opposite reactions. for instance, a 10-20% reduction in gross income means gov will collect correspondingly less income taxes (most feds are probably in the 15-25% tax bracket, or about $20 billion less savings). also, many feds in the gs 03-07 pay scale (due to length of service or chosen vocation) will now be likely to both qualify for and utilize snap benefits, thereby increasing snap expenditures. presumably, after 10 years like that the bellies should all be full and the budget deficit problem solved. i'm not sure how $850 billion in savings equates to $1.2 trillion sequester, but it probably has something to do with less carried interest and wars we don't fight.

there's probably some other unintended consequences in there that are beyond my capacity to figure out but you get the picture. basically, we all get to work less so our government can afford to feed those who don't work more. ahh, the great leveling. we are all in this together. from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

see you in the soup line.

 

[Boghie]

Burro,

The Sequester cuts scheduled for this year are compressed to occur in full from early April through September 30th. If the Sequester cuts continue than there will be about $120 Billion per year in cuts that are spread through 12 months rather than 6. Also, some of the cuts could be offset by either the poor or the pissed leaving Government Service.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Burro,

The Sequester cuts scheduled for this year are compressed to occur in full from early April through September 30th. If the Sequester cuts continue than there will be about $120 Billion per year in cuts that are spread through 12 months rather than 6. Also, some of the cuts could be offset by either the poor or the pissed leaving Government Service.

Got my letter. April 21 is the start date for Furlough. Damn, can't wait to retire, getting tired of this. Eligible June 5. If I hadn't taken a paid move/promotion in December I'd be going. Stuck staying until December or I have to pay the move back. I'll stay to Jan to get my 100% of Sick Leave.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Got my letter. April 21 is the start date for Furlough. Damn, can't wait to retire, getting tired of this. Eligible June 5. If I hadn't taken a paid move/promotion in December I'd be going. Stuck staying until December or I have to pay the move back. I'll stay to Jan to get my 100% of Sick Leave.

If I was going to retire within a year, I think I would love the hours cut. I mean its not like they are cutting your rate.

 

[Boghie]

Does a sequester falling in the woods make a sound...

 

[Sensei]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Whether furloughs happen or not, just the specter alone has scared me into cancelling my family's vacation plans. We're going to visit my folks and just stay quietly at home with them for a couple weeks this summer. No Disney, no Hawaii, no hotels, very little eating out. Even if the furloughs don't happen, general belt-tightening is here to stay in our household. I think that could be one of the unforeseen negative effects of this on our economy, especially if the other 800,000 DOD employees are of a similar mindset. Furloughs or not, I'll bet we'll see consumer spending take a dive when quarterly reports come out.

 

[James48843]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Merit System Protection Board fears employees may appeal furloughs...

MSPB Chairman Susan Tsui Grundmann sent a letter on Thursday to Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., the new chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, requesting a meeting to discuss the issue.


“It has been reported that sequestration could result in the furlough of ‘hundreds of thousands’ of federal employees,” the letter stated. “If this report is accurate and even a fraction of federal employees who are furloughed as a result of sequestration exercise their right to file an appeal, it would not only dramatically increase MSPB’s caseload but create a ‘domino effect’ that could seriously affect the operations of federal agencies, as they divert resources from fulfilling mission-critical work to litigating furloughed employees appeals. Moreover, MSPB itself could be required to furlough its workforce as a result of sequestration, leaving the agency with less staff and fewer resources to process and decide furlough appeals.”

What do you think? Will you appeal? And clog up the system?

More:
MSPB Braces for Possible Flood of Furlough Appeals - Pay & Benefits - GovExec.com

 

[dhstdog]

Re: *Re: Furlough Thread

Whether furloughs happen or not, just the specter alone has scared me into cancelling my family's vacation plans. We're going to visit my folks and just stay quietly at home with them for a couple weeks this summer. No Disney, no Hawaii, no hotels, very little eating out. Even if the furloughs don't happen, general belt-tightening is here to stay in our household. I think that could be one of the unforeseen negative effects of this on our economy, especially if the other 800,000 DOD employees are of a similar mindset. Furloughs or not, I'll bet we'll see consumer spending take a dive when quarterly reports come out.

Payroll taxes and freezing the G workers pay for three years is already making its impact known.