Intela Brief: US Government Shutdown

[JTH]

Time: 2025-09-30 22:14 (Europe/Warsaw)
Event Probability (base case): p = 70% (High)

Intela Brief: US Government Shutdown​

Conclusion: A lapse at 00:00 Oct 1, 2025 is the base case. Expect a messy-but-manageable first five days: immediate furloughs, paused/non-excepted services, and key data delays that lift near-term volatility without changing the broader trend—unless the standoff extends. AP News+1

First 5 Days (Play-by-Play)

• Oct 1 (D1): OPM shutdown procedures trigger; non-excepted staff furloughed; agencies execute contingency plans. U.S. Office of Personnel Management
• Oct 2–3 (D2–D3): Data-blackout risk materializes—Labor/Commerce releases slip if the shutdown persists. Reuters
• Oct 4–5 (D4–D5): Contractor/household cash-flow pinch begins; service backlogs grow; narrative shifts from “noise” to “duration.” Federal News Network

Operations & Workforce (why it bites fast)
OPM/agency guidance limits staffing to “excepted” functions; everyone else is furloughed with back-pay later—missed checks hit demand and morale now. U.S. Office of Personnel Management

Markets (history = vol up, not trend flip)
Shutdowns typically nudge volatility more than direction; early-week moves are headline-driven around missed data rather than fundamentals. AP News

What to Watch Next

1. Any same-day House/Senate movement on a clean CR/bridge. Reuters
2. Formal BLS/BEA delay notices and agency curtailments. Reuters
3. OPM/agency execution memos (scope signals duration risk). U.S. Office of Personnel Management

Grades: Sources A/B | Signal: Medium | Bias: Neutral | Plausibility: High.

Sources (dated)​

[A] OPM — Guidance for Shutdown Furloughs (PDF). (Source Date: 2025-09-28 | Viewed: 2025-09-30 22:14 CEST) U.S. Office of Personnel Management
AP — US government on brink of first shutdown in almost 7 years. (Source Date: 2025-09-30 | Viewed: 2025-09-30 22:14 CEST) AP News
Reuters — Government shutdown nears with no deal. (Source Date: 2025-09-30 | Viewed: 2025-09-30 22:14 CEST) Reuters
AP — What will happen if there’s a government shutdown at day’s end. (Source Date: 2025-09-30 | Viewed: 2025-09-30 22:14 CEST) AP News
Federal News Network — How a government shutdown impacts federal pay and benefits. (Source Date: 2025-09-22 | Viewed: 2025-09-30 22:14 CEST) Federal News Network

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