Frizz B.'s Account Talk

[Frizz B.]

Everyone has a system, I used to use the 22 day averaage and the 100 day average. Last year when the market went up, I was not in it. So I still look at the averages, but, this is mine now.

I take the low of each month for the last 12 and I get an average low.

MON S MON I
JAN 16.51 JAN 17.93
FEB 16.79 FEB 18.22
MAR 16.95 MAR 18.29
APR 17.49 APR 19.30
MAY 16.82 MAY 19.10
JUN 16.10 JUN 17.73
JUL 16.11 JUL 18.27
AUG 16.34 AUG 19.41
SEP 16.82 SEP 19.61
OCT 17.08 OCT 20.22
NOV 17.79 NOV 20.85
DEC 16.21 DEC 17.05

AVG 16.75 AVG 18.83

I start with 2 %, I will never be out of the S and I fund again. So I take the high of each fund. S=1827 and I=2101, minus the low average and devide that by 48. This gives me 50 % in each fund. So every 1% I subtract 5 pts in the S fund and 8 pts in the I fund. I make my decision at 10 min. till 9 at what my change will be. At 8:50 the S was at 1782 and the I was at 1992. I made a change in the S fund to 12% and the I fund to 3%.


Here is my chart; hopefully it will print like I have it
% S - % I -
2% 1827 5 2% 2101 8
3% 1822 5 3% 2093 8
4% 1818 5 4% 2085 8
5% 1813 5 5% 2076 8
6% 1809 5 6% 2068 8
7% 1804 5 7% 2060 8
8% 1800 5 8% 2052 8
9% 1795 5 9% 2043 8
10% 1791 5 10% 2035 8
11% 1786 5 11% 2027 8
12% 1782 5 12% 2019 8
13% 1777 5 13% 2010 8
14% 1773 5 14% 2002 8
15% 1768 5 15% 1994 8
16% 1764 5 16% 1986 8
17% 1759 5 17% 1977 8
18% 1755 5 18% 1969 8
19% 1750 5 19% 1961 8
20% 1746 5 20% 1953 8
21% 1741 5 21% 1944 8
22% 1737 5 22% 1936 8
23% 1732 5 23% 1928 8
24% 1728 5 24% 1920 8
25% 1723 5 25% 1911 8
26% 1719 5 26% 1903 8
27% 1714 5 27% 1895 8
28% 1709 5 28% 1887 8
29% 1705 5 29% 1878 8
30% 1700 5 30% 1870 8
31% 1696 5 31% 1862 8
32% 1691 5 32% 1854 8
33% 1687 5 33% 1845 8
34% 1682 5 34% 1837 8
35% 1678 5 35% 1829 8
36% 1673 5 36% 1821 8
37% 1669 5 37% 1812 8
38% 1664 5 38% 1804 8
39% 1660 5 39% 1796 8
40% 1655 5 40% 1788 8
41% 1651 5 41% 1779 8
42% 1646 5 42% 1771 8
43% 1642 5 43% 1763 8
44% 1637 5 44% 1755 8
45% 1633 5 45% 1746 8
46% 1628 5 46% 1738 8
47% 1624 5 47% 1730 8
48% 1619 5 48% 1722 8
49% 1615 5 49% 1713 8
50% 1610 5 50% 1705 8

 

[Frizz B.]

You ever have to many charts and you can't keep things straight,

The last chart is for the low of the last 12 months. S fund in August was 1610 and the I fund in last December was 1705.

I did use the first chart for my change today. To many things to keep straight.

Here is the average.

0 2% 1827 3 2% 2101 5
1 3% 1824 3 3% 2096 5
2 4% 1821 3 4% 2092 5
3 5% 1818 3 5% 2087 5
4 6% 1814 3 6% 2083 5
5 7% 1811 3 7% 2078 5
6 8% 1808 3 8% 2074 5
7 9% 1805 3 9% 2069 5
8 10% 1802 3 10% 2065 5
9 11% 1799 3 11% 2060 5
10 12% 1795 3 12% 2056 5
11 13% 1792 3 13% 2051 5
12 14% 1789 3 14% 2047 5
13 15% 1786 3 15% 2042 5
14 16% 1783 3 16% 2037 5
15 17% 1780 3 17% 2033 5
16 18% 1776 3 18% 2028 5
17 19% 1773 3 19% 2024 5
18 20% 1770 3 20% 2019 5
19 21% 1767 3 21% 2015 5
20 22% 1764 3 22% 2010 5
21 23% 1761 3 23% 2006 5
22 24% 1757 3 24% 2001 5
23 25% 1754 3 25% 1997 5
24 26% 1751 3 26% 1992 5
25 27% 1748 3 27% 1988 5
26 28% 1745 3 28% 1983 5
27 29% 1742 3 29% 1978 5
28 30% 1738 3 30% 1974 5
29 31% 1735 3 31% 1969 5
30 32% 1732 3 32% 1965 5
31 33% 1729 3 33% 1960 5
32 34% 1726 3 34% 1956 5
33 35% 1723 3 35% 1951 5
34 36% 1719 3 36% 1947 5
35 37% 1716 3 37% 1942 5
36 38% 1713 3 38% 1938 5
37 39% 1710 3 39% 1933 5
38 40% 1707 3 40% 1929 5
39 41% 1704 3 41% 1924 5
40 42% 1700 3 42% 1919 5
41 43% 1697 3 43% 1915 5
42 44% 1694 3 44% 1910 5
43 45% 1691 3 45% 1906 5
44 46% 1688 3 46% 1901 5
45 47% 1685 3 47% 1897 5
46 48% 1681 3 48% 1892 5
47 49% 1678 3 49% 1888 5
48 50% 1675 3 50% 1883 5

---------AVG-----16.75--------------AVG-----18.83

 

[Frizz B.]

Change To
S Fund 12% To 13%
I Fund 3% To 4%

 

[MADDOG]

I'm Confused

How Are U Allocated

Md

 

[EW_ret]

Change To
S Fund 12% To 13%
I Fund 3% To 4%

Welcome back Frizz after a long hiatus (June 2004). We have an Excel spreadsheet calculator called the Weekly Tracker. I entered your TSP allocation (79% G, 8% C, 10% S, 3% I) in the Weekly Tracker for COB yesterday. You need to enter any change to this allocation in your "Frizz's B Account" thread. Was this a change from yesterday's allocation?

 

[Frizz B.]

this was for today

 

[Frizz B.]

MD,
I take the close from yesterday and multiply it by the fund price for the day at 8:50. Yesterday's close for the S fund was 1787 and at 8:50 it was down to 1777, if you look at the chart shows 13% 1777, and the I fund closed at 1995 but the way I calculate the I fund, I have it at 1992, so at 8:50 the EFA was down and I showed it at 2085 so I went to the chart and it shows 4% 2085. This is the change that I made.

 

[Frizz B.]

MD
As you can tell, the big problem is that the market can change in the last 4 hours. On the Nov 1st the S was at 8% 1808 and by the end of the day it closed at 1786 which would have been 11%. You never know.

 

[ebbnflow]

I will start my account with 79% G fund , 8% C fund, 10% S fund, and 3% I fund
FrizzB.

Change To
S Fund 12% To 13%
I Fund 3% To 4%

Frizz B., you're confusing our hardworking tracker, EWGuy. First, you had S at 10% and not 12%. And you want to change this to 13%. I-fund goes from 3% to 4%. Okay.

But, what happens to your other allocations, the G-fund (79%) and C-fund (8%)? Both total 87% and if you include your new S and I-fund of 13% and 4% respectively, it doesn't add up to 100% anymore.

 

[Frizz B.]

Sorry, when I do my charting, I only put in my S and I and my G fund calculates itself, I hardly ever play the F or C fund

You can use this or I will start over.
date G S I total
11/3 83% 13% 4% 100%
11/2 85% 12% 3% 100%
11/1 88% 10% 2% 100%

 

[Frizz B.]

I did play the C fund, when I sent this to you the first time. But when I made my changes in the TSP account, I did not. So I didn't put it on my sheet and forgot that is what I sent to you.

 

[EW_ret]

Sorry, when I do my charting, I only put in my S and I and my G fund calculates itself, I hardly ever play the F or C fund

You can use this or I will start over.
date G S I total
11/3 83% 13% 4% 100%
11/2 85% 12% 3% 100%
11/1 88% 10% 2% 100%

You need to make all IFT allocation changes in your account thread, "Frizzb's Account". I do not use the entries in your account talk thread, "Frizz B.'s Account Talk", when making IFT moves in the Weekly Tracker. Please read the rules for tracking in the Weekly Tracker.

Your initial, and last, entry in "Frizzb's Account" thread was on 11/02/2006 at 11:49 am. I entered this fund allocation in the Weekly Tracker for COB on 11/02 fund prices. I have not made any other IFT moves for you in the Weekly Tracker.

I will start my account with 79% G fund , 8% C fund, 10% S fund, and 3% I fund

FrizzB.

 

[fabijo]

Frizz B. -
I've been reading over your threads here and in the I Fund area. How long have you been acting on your systems? It looks like in a market that is making new highs every day, you'll be minimally invested. It sounds safe, but what happens during a time when we never return to those lows? From 1995 to 2000, your system would have you minimally in the market while it was exploding. Then from 2000 to 2003, it would have you putting more allocations in while it was dropping. How far back will you be going when you use the averages, highs and lows? Is it always 12 months?

- Fab

 

[EW_ret]

Please clarify/correct your IFT allocation you entered today (4/27) because I cannot credit you with 150%. I will enter as 50% G, 25% S, and 25% I unless I hear otherwise. Adding a comma, or other separator, between fund allocations really helps in reading what percentage goes with each fund.

4/27 G Fund 50% S Fund 50% I Fund 50%