Flat

8/09/12

Yesterday was one of the flattest days we have seen in a long while as every TSP fund was up or down less than 0.1%. The Dow gained 7-points, the S&P 500 was up less than 1-point, and the Nasdaq shed less than 5.
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[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.06%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.04%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.06%[/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"]

More returns​

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The S&P 500 made a new closing high, but not an intraday high as resistance is putting some pressure on stocks at the top of this rising wedge.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

As a follow up to yesterday's observation, the pattern from late June / early July continued yesterday and if we see more of that today, we would expect a steeper down day.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Russell 2000 is looking a little more "toppy" than the other indices.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Here's one for the bulls...

Market commentator Doug Kass mentioned something called the Farrell Sentiment Indicator on thestreet.com yesterday.

According to sentimenTrader.com... "This indicator takes the percentage of bulls in the AAII survey of individual investors, and divides it by the percentage of bears, plus half the percentage of neutrals. It then uses a 10-week moving average to smooth out the week-to-week gyrations. A buy signal for stocks is given when that 10-week average drops below 0.50 and subsequently turns higher.

"The lowest the 10-week average got recently was 0.51 a few weeks ago, and it has since turned ever-so-slightly higher. So we haven't yet triggered an "official" buy signal, but historically that hasn't mattered. It's the concept that counts."

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

A pretty dull day yesterday led today's less than exciting commentary. Maybe the market will give us something more interesting today, to talk about for tomorrow.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 

[crommie]

Looks like the Farrell Sentiment Indicator has a pretty good track record. I read elsewhere that it has a two to three week lag time prior to the market move. So if the indicator turned two weeks ago the market may be getting ready....or not!
I also found this linked list of "Uncle" Bob Farrell's 10 Rules for Investing.... The Big Picture

 

[FireWeatherMet]

If Farrell Sentiment Indicator is as good as its track record seems, hope todays midday drop is the start of a 2-3 day downturn to give us a chance to buy the dip

 

[tsptalk]

What's interesting about this buy signal is that it is coming when the market is close to highs. Not normally what you'd expect when sentiment is this bearish.