8/23/12
Stocks were mixed yesterday but closed strongly after a weak opening creating yet another flat day. The Dow lost 31-points, but the S&P 500 was up 32 cents, or 0.0%, and the Nasdaq closed modestly higher.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.03%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.19%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.38%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 raced to the bottom of the rising wedge early yesterday, but found support and recouped those early losses. It was a possible positive reversal day but the high / low range was so tight it may not qualify.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Something interesting happened. As I mentioned yesterday, we might want to expect the unexpected, and while I wasn't talking about this, it was unexpected - Stocks floundered while the dollar was dropping. We have been used the stock market moving in the opposite direction of the dollar, but yesterday was an exception. This tells me that stocks were a little weaker than the closing may have indicated. They "should" have rallied.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Commodities enjoyed the weak dollar as they have been breaking out to new multi-month highs, but so is the price of oil and gasoline. In an already weak economy, these price increases are not the best news for consumers.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As far as the indicators go, the market is neither overbought nor oversold at this time...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And we're again seeing mixed results from the sentiment indicators.
I saw some overly bullish sentiment readings from the Investors Intelligence Survey, a mostly neutral reading form the AAII Survey, and our TSP Talk surveys have been leaning on the overly bearish side.
This chart shows what investors are doing in their Rydex Funds. These are interesting in that, rather than a survey where investors say if they are bullish, this one tells us what they are actually doing with their money. Right now the Rydex Funds tell us that investors are quite bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
So much so that it may be a concern since high bullish readings is usually bearish for stocks. Prior bull / bear ratios this high saw intermediate-term peaks shortly afterward. You can see that the bullishness is trending up so perhaps this can just keep moving up without incident, but clearly this at least close to an area that may have a negative impact on the ability of the market to continue higher. Perhaps the stretch run into the election will keep the market buoyant despite this extreme bullish sentiment reading.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed yesterday but closed strongly after a weak opening creating yet another flat day. The Dow lost 31-points, but the S&P 500 was up 32 cents, or 0.0%, and the Nasdaq closed modestly higher.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.03%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.19%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.38%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 raced to the bottom of the rising wedge early yesterday, but found support and recouped those early losses. It was a possible positive reversal day but the high / low range was so tight it may not qualify.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Something interesting happened. As I mentioned yesterday, we might want to expect the unexpected, and while I wasn't talking about this, it was unexpected - Stocks floundered while the dollar was dropping. We have been used the stock market moving in the opposite direction of the dollar, but yesterday was an exception. This tells me that stocks were a little weaker than the closing may have indicated. They "should" have rallied.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Commodities enjoyed the weak dollar as they have been breaking out to new multi-month highs, but so is the price of oil and gasoline. In an already weak economy, these price increases are not the best news for consumers.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As far as the indicators go, the market is neither overbought nor oversold at this time...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And we're again seeing mixed results from the sentiment indicators.
I saw some overly bullish sentiment readings from the Investors Intelligence Survey, a mostly neutral reading form the AAII Survey, and our TSP Talk surveys have been leaning on the overly bearish side.
This chart shows what investors are doing in their Rydex Funds. These are interesting in that, rather than a survey where investors say if they are bullish, this one tells us what they are actually doing with their money. Right now the Rydex Funds tell us that investors are quite bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
So much so that it may be a concern since high bullish readings is usually bearish for stocks. Prior bull / bear ratios this high saw intermediate-term peaks shortly afterward. You can see that the bullishness is trending up so perhaps this can just keep moving up without incident, but clearly this at least close to an area that may have a negative impact on the ability of the market to continue higher. Perhaps the stretch run into the election will keep the market buoyant despite this extreme bullish sentiment reading.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
