08/15/12
A strong open and weakness in the afternoon left us with another rather flat day by the close. The Dow gained 3-points on the day while the S&P 500 was flat.
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[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
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[/TD]
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For the S&P 500 is still in the rising wedge and continues to struggle to get above the 1410 area. This consolidation after the recent run up is doing a good job of taking the index off it's overbought levels and back into neutral territory. I have been expecting a short-term pullback that will give us a decent buying opportunity, but this kind of sideways action could have the same effect as a healthy pullback. At some point this market can be shaken down by a news event or economic report, but in consolidations like this, the quick dips can usually be safely bought. If the wedge breaks below support however, then the story would change.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leader Dow Transportation index remains in a downtrend, and this could be a concern. But if you squint your eyes real tight you can almost make out a descending inverted head and shoulders pattern, which could see a break to the upside. We'll have to see how long the declining resistance line can hold.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar is getting closer to having to make a decision. Either support (blue line) is going to break to the downside, or the descending trading channel (red) will break to the upside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The stock market will almost certainly be on top of this and move counter to the break on this chart. If support breaks and the dollar moves down, the stock market will have a bullish push in the back. If the dollar breaks to the upside, the wind will be in the face of the stock market. Keep an eye on this chart.
On a personal note, my son is heading to college next week and I have some family coming in from out of town so I may be cutting the next several commentaries short as I spend more time with the family. The premium service reports will be posted everyday, but there may be some slight changes in the regular posting times, depending on my schedule. Sorry for any inconveniences this may cause.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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